Aroy
@fusiona.bsky.social
Paradigm Shock Podcast person. Finance and Tech guy, Quality of Money Monetary Theory, Global macro, digital assets and financial infrastructure, sometimes politics, music, sports - especially soccer. Fair weather Manchester United fan
Spot on! It’a possible that in retrospect it will be seen as THE inflection point that changed the trend. It already looks that way seeing how things have trended the last 3 weeks
November 23, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Spot on! It’a possible that in retrospect it will be seen as THE inflection point that changed the trend. It already looks that way seeing how things have trended the last 3 weeks
This could be regarded as a truly seminal piece of work. Great job sir!
November 20, 2025 at 6:54 PM
This could be regarded as a truly seminal piece of work. Great job sir!
3 point win?! Try 13+ !!! HAHAHAHA
November 9, 2025 at 6:45 PM
3 point win?! Try 13+ !!! HAHAHAHA
My guess is that some of the worst polls were sampling very poorly. To the extent they are transparent, they were assuming an electorate that looked like 2024, which was a poor assumption
November 7, 2025 at 2:58 AM
My guess is that some of the worst polls were sampling very poorly. To the extent they are transparent, they were assuming an electorate that looked like 2024, which was a poor assumption
Professor @jonmladd.bsky.social now it appears the polls had a massive 8 to 9 point miss in NJ and still very significant 4.5 to 5.0 point miss in VA, so quite a bit worse than the polling misses in 2016/20/24.
November 5, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Professor @jonmladd.bsky.social now it appears the polls had a massive 8 to 9 point miss in NJ and still very significant 4.5 to 5.0 point miss in VA, so quite a bit worse than the polling misses in 2016/20/24.
Great job Elliot! State Navigate seems to have done a fine job, along with your former employer over at the Economist/YouGov, and Zogby this morning even in NJ. Now please come up with a pollster rating for these crapsters like Quantus, Atlas, Emerson, Insider, etc
November 5, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Great job Elliot! State Navigate seems to have done a fine job, along with your former employer over at the Economist/YouGov, and Zogby this morning even in NJ. Now please come up with a pollster rating for these crapsters like Quantus, Atlas, Emerson, Insider, etc
Would love to see you start a pollster rating, after their wild misses, especially in NJ and most especially with these really "Sus" pollsters that you are well aware of. Even Emerson which I gather is a professional outfit, but they seem to lean really right in recent years, especially in NJ Gov
November 5, 2025 at 4:55 AM
Would love to see you start a pollster rating, after their wild misses, especially in NJ and most especially with these really "Sus" pollsters that you are well aware of. Even Emerson which I gather is a professional outfit, but they seem to lean really right in recent years, especially in NJ Gov
Pure evil. Unbelievable and sad there isn't more outrage. Total failure of mainstream outlets and elites
October 25, 2025 at 2:56 AM
Pure evil. Unbelievable and sad there isn't more outrage. Total failure of mainstream outlets and elites
Thanks for posting ths!
September 12, 2025 at 10:11 PM
Thanks for posting ths!
Where is the source information for the 2028 H2H matchup with Newsome up 8? I couldn't find it in the Yahoo/Youguv report and no link here
September 5, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Where is the source information for the 2028 H2H matchup with Newsome up 8? I couldn't find it in the Yahoo/Youguv report and no link here
@peark.es and other resident BlueSky #financebros may find this episode interesting
August 13, 2025 at 4:37 PM
@peark.es and other resident BlueSky #financebros may find this episode interesting