Managing Director @profraywills.bsky.social
http://www.futuresmart.com.au
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right
Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
Crocodile day
Never smile at a crocodile
Let dragons sleep?
Too late
China now sells more electric cars than all US car sales
Not just leadership in volume and scale
China also leading on quality, technology, efficiency, safety
If you buy an ICE car, don't expect it to retain value
Crocodile day
Never smile at a crocodile
Let dragons sleep?
Too late
China now sells more electric cars than all US car sales
Not just leadership in volume and scale
China also leading on quality, technology, efficiency, safety
If you buy an ICE car, don't expect it to retain value
Calyptorhynchus banksii naso
Forest red-tailed black cockatoo
SW Western Australia
Around 15,000 birds, considered 'Vulnerable' in Western Australia
Feeding on ~80 year old cape lilac berries in parkland, Menora, Perth, WA - sound on!
Calyptorhynchus banksii naso
Forest red-tailed black cockatoo
SW Western Australia
Around 15,000 birds, considered 'Vulnerable' in Western Australia
Feeding on ~80 year old cape lilac berries in parkland, Menora, Perth, WA - sound on!
Most peeps live in Asia, most in UTC+8
If you live in that time zone, its:
Perth, (Western) Australia
Jakarta, Indonesia
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Manila, Philippines
Shanghai, China
Taipei, Taiwan
Hong Kong
Beijing, China
US-centric dude in the other place
Most peeps live in Asia, most in UTC+8
If you live in that time zone, its:
Perth, (Western) Australia
Jakarta, Indonesia
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Manila, Philippines
Shanghai, China
Taipei, Taiwan
Hong Kong
Beijing, China
US-centric dude in the other place
Renewables on east coast now >50% penetration
In the west > 55%
And both still growing
With no signs of instability (indeed grid reliability scores are actually increasing), scaling storage and renewables can marginalise gas entirely, slashing emissions and costs
Renewables on east coast now >50% penetration
In the west > 55%
And both still growing
With no signs of instability (indeed grid reliability scores are actually increasing), scaling storage and renewables can marginalise gas entirely, slashing emissions and costs
And, poverty? A small share, so let's not worry
The housing crisis, too. Not most of us, so let's keep negative gearing
Aus share of global CO2 emissions minor
Action on these issues benefits Australians
Dec 2025 VFACTs + EV Council - 4Feb2026
BEV 8.7%
Hybrid (inc PHEV) 23.8%
ICE only drive train share 67.5%
SUVs 61% share of sales
>110 BEV models in Australia
BEV 8.5% 2025 Aus annual sales
Country of origin: China closes gap on Japan as biggest Aus car supplier
Dec 2025 VFACTs + EV Council - 4Feb2026
BEV 8.7%
Hybrid (inc PHEV) 23.8%
ICE only drive train share 67.5%
SUVs 61% share of sales
>110 BEV models in Australia
BEV 8.5% 2025 Aus annual sales
Country of origin: China closes gap on Japan as biggest Aus car supplier
With friends like these, who needs enemas?
There is nothing that Australia needs from the US that we can't get somewhere else while keeping our integrity and values in place
I'm done - its time Australia just told this pig to rack off
bsky.app/profile/prof...
With friends like these, who needs enemas?
There is nothing that Australia needs from the US that we can't get somewhere else while keeping our integrity and values in place
I'm done - its time Australia just told this pig to rack off
bsky.app/profile/prof...
With friends like these, who needs enemas?
A lesson to be learnt - and enacted - @albomp.bsky.social
Let's keep the Australian values we share with our allies like Canada, and not swallow poison-pill sycophancy of sucking up to Trump
Oh, and dump AUKUS
"We must actively take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be."
"What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth? First it means naming reality..." (🧵1/6)
With friends like these, who needs enemas?
A lesson to be learnt - and enacted - @albomp.bsky.social
Let's keep the Australian values we share with our allies like Canada, and not swallow poison-pill sycophancy of sucking up to Trump
Oh, and dump AUKUS
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"
— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"
— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%
But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
CEOs hiding in the dark from science and from innovation, and subscribing to BAU and the past, doom their companies to failure.
As do the Board's that let them.
Prof Ray Wills, @fssau.futuresmart.com.au
Fiduciary duty
CEOs hiding in the dark from science and from innovation, and subscribing to BAU and the past, doom their companies to failure.
As do the Board's that let them.
Prof Ray Wills, @fssau.futuresmart.com.au
Fiduciary duty
But China making EVs that are a better product, better finish, greater safety will charge less to those who want 'cheaper and better'🤔
Includes Singapore, Australia, others that don't build their own cars🤯
And those that do
bsky.app/profile/prof...
But China making EVs that are a better product, better finish, greater safety will charge less to those who want 'cheaper and better'🤔
Includes Singapore, Australia, others that don't build their own cars🤯
And those that do
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Days with good air quality now >80%, average PM2.5 levels fall to 27.8
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/25/...
Days with good air quality now >80%, average PM2.5 levels fall to 27.8
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/25/...
Largest share home storage (19GWh)
Large-scale storage share comes in step changes as facilities added
Majority of installations lithium-ion batteries
battery-charts.rwth-aachen.de/main-page/
Largest share home storage (19GWh)
Large-scale storage share comes in step changes as facilities added
Majority of installations lithium-ion batteries
battery-charts.rwth-aachen.de/main-page/
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"
— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"
— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
bsky.app/profile/rene... @reneweconomy.com.au
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
bsky.app/profile/rene... @reneweconomy.com.au
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
It's an anchor
Cement boots
Coal a cost to taxpayers that taxpayers are forced to keep paying (and why WA system costs high)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
Keeping coal costs more when it does work, and costs even more when it doesn't
bsky.app/profile/prof...
It's an anchor
Cement boots
Coal a cost to taxpayers that taxpayers are forced to keep paying (and why WA system costs high)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
Keeping coal costs more when it does work, and costs even more when it doesn't
bsky.app/profile/prof...
Australia’s Shift from Gas to Renewables and The Rise of Batteries
Australia’s electricity grids are undergoing a profound transformation, with large-scale batteries rapidly emerging in support of renewables, by-passing the need for gas
Australia’s Shift from Gas to Renewables and The Rise of Batteries
Australia’s electricity grids are undergoing a profound transformation, with large-scale batteries rapidly emerging in support of renewables, by-passing the need for gas
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Webinar
How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
I'm looking forward to presenting at IDC's EnergyTech conference, Perth 19Feb26
www.linkedin.com/posts/idc-te...
I'm looking forward to presenting at IDC's EnergyTech conference, Perth 19Feb26
www.linkedin.com/posts/idc-te...
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports:
China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion
Final numbers not yet fully finalized
Exports:
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch
WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch
Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
Total >20 million in 2025 (preliminary)
>14m BEV
BYD 4.55m sales, 2.26M BEV + 2.29M PHEV, 8% YoY growth
Total >20 million in 2025 (preliminary)
>14m BEV
BYD 4.55m sales, 2.26M BEV + 2.29M PHEV, 8% YoY growth
A new electric program for heavy vehicles announced in WA
$126M incentive program for commercial fleet
WA
The place I live
Full name: Western Australia
Nickname: Wait Awhile
#EVs
Yeah, nah
In Washington State, US ess arh
Seems it's time for a BEX and a little lay down
A new electric program for heavy vehicles announced in WA
$126M incentive program for commercial fleet
WA
The place I live
Full name: Western Australia
Nickname: Wait Awhile
#EVs
Yeah, nah
In Washington State, US ess arh
Seems it's time for a BEX and a little lay down
Well, solar's a pretty good reason, too
And also, solar is the GOAT
Well, solar's a pretty good reason, too
And also, solar is the GOAT