Future Smart Strategies™
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fssau.futuresmart.com.au
Future Smart Strategies™
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
Business Advisors: Built Environment, Energy, Health, Infrastructure, Innovation, Markets, Planning, Policy, Resources, Sustainability, Technology, Training, Transport
Managing Director @profraywills.bsky.social
http://www.futuresmart.com.au
Pinned
We at @fssau.bsky.social running projections since 2012
We've aimed to be #leastwrong
Which is measurably better than not right

Here's graphs of aged IEA forecasts compared to 3 of our aged FSS projections versus actual data
Also all our aged solar forecasts to 2023
@profraywills.bsky.social
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Nature watch
Crocodile day
Never smile at a crocodile
Let dragons sleep?
Too late
China now sells more electric cars than all US car sales

Not just leadership in volume and scale
China also leading on quality, technology, efficiency, safety

If you buy an ICE car, don't expect it to retain value
January 31, 2026 at 4:11 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Karrak
Calyptorhynchus banksii naso
Forest red-tailed black cockatoo
SW Western Australia
Around 15,000 birds, considered 'Vulnerable' in Western Australia

Feeding on ~80 year old cape lilac berries in parkland, Menora, Perth, WA - sound on!
January 31, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Lessons in geography #888

Most peeps live in Asia, most in UTC+8

If you live in that time zone, its:
Perth, (Western) Australia
Jakarta, Indonesia
Singapore
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Manila, Philippines
Shanghai, China
Taipei, Taiwan
Hong Kong
Beijing, China

US-centric dude in the other place
February 2, 2026 at 12:19 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Australia’s grids world-leading

Renewables on east coast now >50% penetration
In the west > 55%

And both still growing

With no signs of instability (indeed grid reliability scores are actually increasing), scaling storage and renewables can marginalise gas entirely, slashing emissions and costs
February 4, 2026 at 12:01 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
I feel the need to re-post this
Australia's global share of corruption small, wouldn't change the world if we ignored it
And, poverty? A small share, so let's not worry
The housing crisis, too. Not most of us, so let's keep negative gearing
Aus share of global CO2 emissions minor

Action on these issues benefits Australians
February 4, 2026 at 1:46 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Australian vehicle sales summary
Dec 2025 VFACTs + EV Council - 4Feb2026

BEV 8.7%
Hybrid (inc PHEV) 23.8%
ICE only drive train share 67.5%

SUVs 61% share of sales

>110 BEV models in Australia
BEV 8.5% 2025 Aus annual sales

Country of origin: China closes gap on Japan as biggest Aus car supplier
February 4, 2026 at 3:32 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
What a revolting human he is

With friends like these, who needs enemas?

There is nothing that Australia needs from the US that we can't get somewhere else while keeping our integrity and values in place

I'm done - its time Australia just told this pig to rack off
bsky.app/profile/prof...
February 4, 2026 at 4:34 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Paraphrasing Canada's PM Carney:

With friends like these, who needs enemas?

A lesson to be learnt - and enacted - @albomp.bsky.social

Let's keep the Australian values we share with our allies like Canada, and not swallow poison-pill sycophancy of sucking up to Trump

Oh, and dump AUKUS
🇨🇦PM Carney just schooled our cowardly European leaders at #Davos. This speech was clearly aimed at them:

"We must actively take on the world as it is, not wait around for a world we wish to be."

"What does it mean for middle powers to live the truth? First it means naming reality..." (🧵1/6)
January 21, 2026 at 1:54 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
"In the race to build new energy
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"

— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
January 22, 2026 at 9:47 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
IEA estimate of solar offsetting shiploads of coal based on 2023 data

Since then, tech improves, and in 2026, effectiveness of clean energy shiploads is up by up to 15%

But, efficiency of a ship full of coal or gas remains static
reneweconomy.com.au/one-ship-loa... @reneweconomy.com.au
January 16, 2026 at 7:12 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
The price of light responding to learning curves and Wrights law.

CEOs hiding in the dark from science and from innovation, and subscribing to BAU and the past, doom their companies to failure.

As do the Board's that let them.

Prof Ray Wills, @fssau.futuresmart.com.au

Fiduciary duty
January 24, 2026 at 11:12 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
The world used to car prices going up every year
But China making EVs that are a better product, better finish, greater safety will charge less to those who want 'cheaper and better'🤔
Includes Singapore, Australia, others that don't build their own cars🤯
And those that do

bsky.app/profile/prof...
January 24, 2026 at 10:12 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Beijing records best air quality driven by rapid adoption of >1.3M new energy vehicles (NEVs) so far, and sustained growth of green power, now up to 36% of city's electricity mix
Days with good air quality now >80%, average PM2.5 levels fall to 27.8
www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202601/25/...
January 25, 2026 at 10:14 PM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Germany hits 25GWh of battery storage end of 2025
Largest share home storage (19GWh)
Large-scale storage share comes in step changes as facilities added
Majority of installations lithium-ion batteries
battery-charts.rwth-aachen.de/main-page/
January 23, 2026 at 2:23 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
"In the race to build new energy
#wind fast
#solar faster
& #batteries will be faster again
#Coal has started a fast exit"

— Prof Ray Wills, 22 Oct 2017
January 22, 2026 at 9:49 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Graph of the day: Batteries are beating solar to deliver the fastest energy transition in human history
bsky.app/profile/rene... @reneweconomy.com.au
@fssau.futuresmart.com.au
January 22, 2026 at 6:10 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Extending coal is not a lifeline
It's an anchor
Cement boots
Coal a cost to taxpayers that taxpayers are forced to keep paying (and why WA system costs high)
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...
Keeping coal costs more when it does work, and costs even more when it doesn't
bsky.app/profile/prof...
January 21, 2026 at 8:20 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
More evidence we’re passing gas

Australia’s Shift from Gas to Renewables and The Rise of Batteries

Australia’s electricity grids are undergoing a profound transformation, with large-scale batteries rapidly emerging in support of renewables, by-passing the need for gas
January 19, 2026 at 11:01 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Solar: The Fastest Energy Transition Ever
Webinar

How did this happen?
Is an even faster transition be possible?
What has driven solar’s rapid rise
Can emerging clean technologies go faster?
Thur, 22 Jan 2026, 1:00 PM AEST
www.eit.edu.au/event/solar-...
Solar: The Fastest Energy Transition Ever
Solar is the fastest energy transition in human history. How did this happen and could an even faster transition be possible? This session explores the forces behind solar’s rapid rise, the crucial ro...
www.eit.edu.au
January 15, 2026 at 11:24 PM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Powered by renewable energy and storage, Australia’s move to produce green iron via renewable hydrogen is feasible, with sound fundamentals and supportive global policy momentum

I'm looking forward to presenting at IDC's EnergyTech conference, Perth 19Feb26
www.linkedin.com/posts/idc-te...
January 13, 2026 at 4:09 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
China's automakers surpassed Japan's in global sales in 2025 (~27M vs ~25M units), marking a historic shift after decades of Japanese dominance.

China's growth propelled by EV leadership, China's vast domestic market, and rapid export expansion

Final numbers not yet fully finalized

Exports:
January 14, 2026 at 6:54 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Australia utility batteries and dispatch at 15 Jan 2026

NEM battery
53 Facilities; Capacity 8,872MW/ 15,175MWh
1697GWh 12months dispatch

WA WEM battery
6 Facilities; Capacity 1,385MW/ 5,367MWh
652GWh 12months dispatch

Total Australia batter
59 Facilities; Capacity: 10,257MW/ 20,542MWh\2350GWh
January 15, 2026 at 6:08 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Global EV (BEV + PHEV) Dec 2025 sales were ~ 2m units
Total >20 million in 2025 (preliminary)
>14m BEV

BYD 4.55m sales, 2.26M BEV + 2.29M PHEV, 8% YoY growth
January 4, 2026 at 11:26 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
Saw this, got excited
A new electric program for heavy vehicles announced in WA
$126M incentive program for commercial fleet
WA
The place I live
Full name: Western Australia
Nickname: Wait Awhile
#EVs
Yeah, nah

In Washington State, US ess arh

Seems it's time for a BEX and a little lay down
January 6, 2026 at 5:40 AM
Reposted by Future Smart Strategies™
I'm posting this for no other reason than goats

Well, solar's a pretty good reason, too

And also, solar is the GOAT
January 6, 2026 at 4:02 AM