My write up of today's statistics is here: freemovement.org.uk/latest-stati...

Still no update the Home Office's internal data on the quality of their asylum decisions (last reported as a woeful 52% pass rate for 2023/24). See above re importance of this to the appeals backlog. Presumably if it had improved the Home Office would be more keen to report on this...

Nearly a third of returns were asylum related (both voluntary and enforced). Just over a third of those are Albanian nationals (3,122) followed by Brazilian (1,723). Indian (1,027), Colombian (414) and Pakistani (395) nationals.

(*apparently year on year there has been an increase in voluntary returns of 7%, but that chart indicates a recent drop)

Onto returns, voluntary returns have continued to decrease and enforced returns to increase, the latter saw a 22% year on year increase. This is attributed to factors including the reallocation of 1,000 staff to immigration enforcement last year (from where, i am curious?)

There was a 17% increase in the number of people being detained (22,661) in the y/e Sept 2025. Over half of the people who left detention were released on immigration bail and just under half (43%) of people leaving detention were removed from the UK

Looking at students, in the y/e March 2025 there has been around one dependant for every 20 main applicants. This is a decrease from around 6 dependants for every 20 main applicants in y/e September 2023.

To watch: what if any impact will the new levy have?
www.gov.uk/government/c...

Interesting to note that the Home Office attributes the fall in work route grants not just to fewer applications but also a drop in grant rate (interesting to me because I am currently working on a challenge to a very poor refusal)

Yes this was my point really re: the data being so poor. This is important stuff to know!

The earned settlement consultation makes clear that the government also has access to citizenship in its sights. Too early to see now of course, but I would like to see a significant spike in naturalisation grants starting next year - people who can and want to apply should probably do so.

Of the non-EUSS cases, the biggest group is work, then family and then refugee. If the earned settlement changes are applied people who are already here then the refugee figures would be expected to drop significantly and immediately, size of potential decrease in other groups is currently unclear

One to start monitoring more closely given last week's news: settlement
www.gov.uk/government/s...

Vast majority are via the EUSS

Exactly why we need this data now

Anyway, here's the main chart. That peak in partner applications was rush before the minimum income requirement was increased

Clear data is needed on how many families are forced into the ten year route to settlement, particularly in light of the increase to the minimum income requirement last year and the proposals in the earned settlement consultation which is likely to affect this group.

Moving on to family applications (www.gov.uk/government/s...) as noted above, the data here was already poor but they seem to have managed to make it worse

10% are "other". This includes UK born children who are now forced to claim asylum (freemovement.org.uk/changes-to-p...) and people arriving via the Common Travel Area

There has been a 13% year on year increse in people claiming asylum. 41% (45,183) arrived via the Channel, 11% (12,176) arrived via other irregular routes, 38% (41,461) were able to enter with a visa for another route

There has been a 40% year on year increase in irregular arrivals. Most are people arriving across the Channel, there have been decreases in people detected arriving by other methods