James Franklin
@franklinjamesl.bsky.social
Former Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit, National Hurricane Center, NOAA/NWS (retired). Mostly weather posts, with occasional forays into grammar and usage, word play, and south Florida sports.
Bob, who's in a contract year, had two very poor outings out of his last three starts, surrounding (naturally) a shutout. When long-time elite goalies start to lose it due to age, does it tend to manifest with that sort of inconsistency, or is it usually a steadier sort of loss of effectiveness?
November 26, 2025 at 1:56 PM
Bob, who's in a contract year, had two very poor outings out of his last three starts, surrounding (naturally) a shutout. When long-time elite goalies start to lose it due to age, does it tend to manifest with that sort of inconsistency, or is it usually a steadier sort of loss of effectiveness?
Oops, meant less harmful, dammit.
November 26, 2025 at 3:31 AM
Oops, meant less harmful, dammit.
Conferences are definitely too big. Obviously, Miami put themselves in a bad place by losing (twice), but it’s still kinda nuts that by rewarding lower-ranked conference champions, the selection system considers an out-of-conference loss to be more harmful than a conference loss.
November 26, 2025 at 3:29 AM
Conferences are definitely too big. Obviously, Miami put themselves in a bad place by losing (twice), but it’s still kinda nuts that by rewarding lower-ranked conference champions, the selection system considers an out-of-conference loss to be more harmful than a conference loss.
Hope so, but I didn’t get a warm fuzzy listening to the explanation of their ranking.
November 26, 2025 at 1:16 AM
Hope so, but I didn’t get a warm fuzzy listening to the explanation of their ranking.
President’s Trophy, SC Final, SC championship, SC championship - I guess we’re paying now for the last four years of success.
November 20, 2025 at 12:59 AM
President’s Trophy, SC Final, SC championship, SC championship - I guess we’re paying now for the last four years of success.
A bondi blue iMac was my first Apple product, and second computer. Been all Apple ever since…
November 17, 2025 at 2:46 AM
A bondi blue iMac was my first Apple product, and second computer. Been all Apple ever since…
See how ugly and illogical that looks?
November 16, 2025 at 12:00 AM
See how ugly and illogical that looks?
The British do this one correctly. Not sure how we came to get this one backwards.
November 15, 2025 at 5:10 AM
The British do this one correctly. Not sure how we came to get this one backwards.
They can pry the two spaces out of my cold dead hands. To my eye, it improves readability, even in a word processing document. Or a tweet. I also ignore putting final punctuation inside quotes, because that’s just logically weird.
November 15, 2025 at 4:28 AM
They can pry the two spaces out of my cold dead hands. To my eye, it improves readability, even in a word processing document. Or a tweet. I also ignore putting final punctuation inside quotes, because that’s just logically weird.
It's the Jerry Reed principle: when you're hot you're hot.
November 14, 2025 at 7:53 PM
It's the Jerry Reed principle: when you're hot you're hot.
I think “A”. Hard to get past the Fiesta Bowl interceptions for “D”.
November 13, 2025 at 7:09 PM
I think “A”. Hard to get past the Fiesta Bowl interceptions for “D”.
I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything other than “interested in”. Until now, anyway.
November 11, 2025 at 5:20 AM
I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything other than “interested in”. Until now, anyway.
I said I thought the deal was a cave and I was ashamed of it. I also thought a long shutdown was foreseeable. And I believe the party and country overall would be better served without this deal at this time. Disagree? Fine. But please show me where I demanded anything of anyone.
November 10, 2025 at 3:24 AM
I said I thought the deal was a cave and I was ashamed of it. I also thought a long shutdown was foreseeable. And I believe the party and country overall would be better served without this deal at this time. Disagree? Fine. But please show me where I demanded anything of anyone.
That’s true, the ones I went through weren’t this long. On the other hand, all Feds have to know that shutdowns are a fact of life with this job, and Trump shutdowns are longer than most. Something one could readily foresee and attempt to prepare for.
November 10, 2025 at 3:01 AM
That’s true, the ones I went through weren’t this long. On the other hand, all Feds have to know that shutdowns are a fact of life with this job, and Trump shutdowns are longer than most. Something one could readily foresee and attempt to prepare for.
I was a Fed for a long time and went through many shutdowns, at various stages of my career and at different levels of financial well being. Sometimes fighting for important things involves hardship. Backpay always came, even if deferred. This was a cave and I’m ashamed of my party.
November 10, 2025 at 2:48 AM
I was a Fed for a long time and went through many shutdowns, at various stages of my career and at different levels of financial well being. Sometimes fighting for important things involves hardship. Backpay always came, even if deferred. This was a cave and I’m ashamed of my party.
Is that even possible? As I understand it, GDM intensities aren’t extracted from the members directly, but instead there’s a second training against the best track. So it’s not clear to me that there’s a realistic physical connection between the forecast structure and the final answer. \_(ツ)_/
November 9, 2025 at 2:17 AM
Is that even possible? As I understand it, GDM intensities aren’t extracted from the members directly, but instead there’s a second training against the best track. So it’s not clear to me that there’s a realistic physical connection between the forecast structure and the final answer. \_(ツ)_/
So many penalties. Sigh.
November 7, 2025 at 3:28 AM
So many penalties. Sigh.
Here's a general description of the interpolator from a recent manuscript. I don't think NHC's actual taper parameters are documented anywhere but I don't think they're exactly secret either. Let me see if there's any objection to sharing them.
November 6, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Here's a general description of the interpolator from a recent manuscript. I don't think NHC's actual taper parameters are documented anywhere but I don't think they're exactly secret either. Let me see if there's any objection to sharing them.
Very nice! Not sure if you've tried to do something similar with intensity but if so, be aware that the operational interpolator has some extra parameters that govern how long the initial offset is applied (i.e., the offset can be tapered to zero).
November 6, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Very nice! Not sure if you've tried to do something similar with intensity but if so, be aware that the operational interpolator has some extra parameters that govern how long the initial offset is applied (i.e., the offset can be tapered to zero).
Digressing slightly, I’d like to better understand why they and others think an increase of peak winds from, say, 160 to 170 kt, would produce “exponentially” more damage. Once a structure is destroyed by wind, how does adding even more wind dramatically increase damage?
November 6, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Digressing slightly, I’d like to better understand why they and others think an increase of peak winds from, say, 160 to 170 kt, would produce “exponentially” more damage. Once a structure is destroyed by wind, how does adding even more wind dramatically increase damage?
I can’t speak to the modeling behind their estimates, but the summary seems to have been written with great care and appreciation for the scope of the problem and the complexities. A good first impression for me, yes.
November 6, 2025 at 1:43 PM
I can’t speak to the modeling behind their estimates, but the summary seems to have been written with great care and appreciation for the scope of the problem and the complexities. A good first impression for me, yes.
Same. West coast trips make me unfondly recall when I was working shifts.
November 5, 2025 at 2:27 AM
Same. West coast trips make me unfondly recall when I was working shifts.
I know there are a lot of misuses of the SSHWS, but I find it tremendously helpful for our own preparation. We don't live in a surge zone, so our go/no-go decision purely follows the wind threat. If the core of a forecast 4 or 5 is coming, based on the track, we go. C3 or less, we stay.
November 3, 2025 at 9:04 PM
I know there are a lot of misuses of the SSHWS, but I find it tremendously helpful for our own preparation. We don't live in a surge zone, so our go/no-go decision purely follows the wind threat. If the core of a forecast 4 or 5 is coming, based on the track, we go. C3 or less, we stay.
As for a SSHWS Category 6, my earlier comment was that I viewed it as a marketing gimmick (for climate change). In real time, I don't see how a 6 helps anyone prepare, and potentially hinders responses to the now lower categories.
November 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
As for a SSHWS Category 6, my earlier comment was that I viewed it as a marketing gimmick (for climate change). In real time, I don't see how a 6 helps anyone prepare, and potentially hinders responses to the now lower categories.