Franck Portier
@fpj-portier.bsky.social
Macroeconomist, University College London.
Reposted by Franck Portier
@deriddermaarten.bsky.social & Łukasz Rachel show that when quantified using recent estimates of the costs of #climatechange, emissions-adjusted productivity #growth has accelerated in recent years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
August 18, 2025 at 9:09 AM
@deriddermaarten.bsky.social & Łukasz Rachel show that when quantified using recent estimates of the costs of #climatechange, emissions-adjusted productivity #growth has accelerated in recent years.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
Reposted by Franck Portier
We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!
American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities
https://www.ft.com/content/ebb2b7e7-5dea-47a2-8386-f12eda692c0f
https://www.ft.com/content/ebb2b7e7-5dea-47a2-8386-f12eda692c0f
American students turn to UK as Trump takes aim at US universities
Searches for British courses surge following US president’s assault on Ivy League institutions, data shows
www.ft.com
April 29, 2025 at 7:33 AM
We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!
A cold day in Minneapolis, but beautiful...
A beautiful day in Minneapolis, but cold: -15 F, -26 C.
Un día hermoso en Minneapolis, pero frío: -15 F, -26 C.
Un día hermoso en Minneapolis, pero frío: -15 F, -26 C.
February 17, 2025 at 7:37 PM
A cold day in Minneapolis, but beautiful...
I suspect Kim is only interested in engineering exogenous variations in tariffs to better estimate trade elasticities.
Prof. Kim Ruhl (UMN PhD 2004) of University of Wisconsin-Madison has been named as one of 3 members of President Trump's Council of Economic Advisors. I admire Kim for his service to our country, and I hope he is able to have a favorable influence on US economic policy.
news.wisc.edu/uw-madison-e...
news.wisc.edu/uw-madison-e...
UW–Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl appointed as member of President’s Council of Economic Advisers
Established by Congress in 1946, the CEA comprises three economists who advise the U.S. president on a wide range of economic policy issues based on data, research and evidence.
news.wisc.edu
February 4, 2025 at 7:54 PM
I suspect Kim is only interested in engineering exogenous variations in tariffs to better estimate trade elasticities.
Reposted by Franck Portier
📢CALL FOR PAPERS
The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR
@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky
The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR
@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky
January 28, 2025 at 9:19 AM
📢CALL FOR PAPERS
The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR
@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky
The Economic Journal Special issue: Climate Change and Inequality
📅Deadline: 28 February 2025
Editor: @albertobisin.bsky.social
➡️Learn more and submit: bit.ly/3YKS3lR
@oupprimary.bsky.social #EconSky
#Econtwitter I forgot: Paul is presenting « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » @nberpubs Macroannual conf on Friday. Check out there for program, Youtube channel, etc…
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju
April 17, 2024 at 3:10 PM
#Econtwitter I forgot: Paul is presenting « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » @nberpubs Macroannual conf on Friday. Check out there for program, Youtube channel, etc…
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju
t.co/1jVAhdQ8Ju
A link to the paper @ nber
www.nber.org/papers/w32322
www.nber.org/papers/w32322
April 17, 2024 at 3:09 PM
A link to the paper @ nber
www.nber.org/papers/w32322
www.nber.org/papers/w32322
A link to the paper @ cepr t.co/0kQjKNktdy
April 17, 2024 at 3:06 PM
A link to the paper @ cepr t.co/0kQjKNktdy
Lesson for monetary policy: raising interest rates to reduce labour market tightness is ineffective. One would have needed to curb down inflation expectations. Communication may be key (nothing in the paper on this).
Thanks for your time. 9/9
Thanks for your time. 9/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:05 PM
Lesson for monetary policy: raising interest rates to reduce labour market tightness is ineffective. One would have needed to curb down inflation expectations. Communication may be key (nothing in the paper on this).
Thanks for your time. 9/9
Thanks for your time. 9/9
With a bit of deviation from full knowledge of the true model of the economy, this generates persistent quasi self-fulfilling inflation episodes. A full model is estimated and shows the dominant role of broad-based supply shock in the recent period. 8/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:05 PM
With a bit of deviation from full knowledge of the true model of the economy, this generates persistent quasi self-fulfilling inflation episodes. A full model is estimated and shows the dominant role of broad-based supply shock in the recent period. 8/9
Confronted with an increase in many prices, agents put more weight on inflation being high, and revise accordingly their expectations Expectations then feed back into actual inflation. 7/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:05 PM
Confronted with an increase in many prices, agents put more weight on inflation being high, and revise accordingly their expectations Expectations then feed back into actual inflation. 7/9
Here is our conjecture: agents form expectations by trying to extract a common component from disaggregated price data. Let’s assume that there are broad-based supply shocks increasing many (but not all) prices. 6/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:04 PM
Here is our conjecture: agents form expectations by trying to extract a common component from disaggregated price data. Let’s assume that there are broad-based supply shocks increasing many (but not all) prices. 6/9
We then show that given flatness and non persistent supply shocks, a Rat. Exp. model of the Phillips Curve cannot account for the recent inflationary episode.
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:04 PM
We then show that given flatness and non persistent supply shocks, a Rat. Exp. model of the Phillips Curve cannot account for the recent inflationary episode.
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9
So it seems we need to rethink our modelling of inflation expectations. 5/9
(c) Inflation expectations (one-year ahead), as measured from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, are persistent and account for most of the recent inflation episode.
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:04 PM
(c) Inflation expectations (one-year ahead), as measured from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, are persistent and account for most of the recent inflation episode.
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9
We confirm these results using some less structural VAR analysis. 4/9
(b) supply shocks (the residuals from the PC) are almost iid: they cannot account for the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations. (hence the team transitory view) 3/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:04 PM
(b) supply shocks (the residuals from the PC) are almost iid: they cannot account for the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations. (hence the team transitory view) 3/9
Take a New-Keynesian Phillips curve as a measurement tool: we observe that:
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:03 PM
Take a New-Keynesian Phillips curve as a measurement tool: we observe that:
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9
(a) the Phillips curve is (very) flat and hasn’t steepened: output gaps cannot account for the recent bout of inflation. 2/9
A thread on our recent cepr/nber paper « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » with Paul Beaudry and Sev Hou. We aim at explaining US inflation dynamics in general and more specifically after 2020. #Econtwitter 1/9
April 17, 2024 at 3:03 PM
A thread on our recent cepr/nber paper « The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation » with Paul Beaudry and Sev Hou. We aim at explaining US inflation dynamics in general and more specifically after 2020. #Econtwitter 1/9
Reposted by Franck Portier
Vacancy for special issues editor at the EJ! res.org.uk/the-economic...
April 15, 2024 at 10:39 PM
Vacancy for special issues editor at the EJ! res.org.uk/the-economic...
#EconSky 📉📈
Great virtual issue of the EJ that collects best recent papers published in the EJ on income and wealth distribution. Foreword by F. Lippi and F. Portier.
All articles in this virtual issue will be Free-to View for a limited time only, until May 2024. Don’t miss it!
👉 bit.ly/3Rk5cQj
Great virtual issue of the EJ that collects best recent papers published in the EJ on income and wealth distribution. Foreword by F. Lippi and F. Portier.
All articles in this virtual issue will be Free-to View for a limited time only, until May 2024. Don’t miss it!
👉 bit.ly/3Rk5cQj
November 28, 2023 at 4:52 PM
#EconSky 📉📈
Great virtual issue of the EJ that collects best recent papers published in the EJ on income and wealth distribution. Foreword by F. Lippi and F. Portier.
All articles in this virtual issue will be Free-to View for a limited time only, until May 2024. Don’t miss it!
👉 bit.ly/3Rk5cQj
Great virtual issue of the EJ that collects best recent papers published in the EJ on income and wealth distribution. Foreword by F. Lippi and F. Portier.
All articles in this virtual issue will be Free-to View for a limited time only, until May 2024. Don’t miss it!
👉 bit.ly/3Rk5cQj
In his jmp, Guglielmo studies returns to vocational education in England. Exploiting variation in distance to the nearest vocational/academic provider, he measures causal returns to vocational educ. for students at the margin with academic educ./at the margin with quitting educ.
November 23, 2023 at 3:19 AM
In his jmp, Guglielmo studies returns to vocational education in England. Exploiting variation in distance to the nearest vocational/academic provider, he measures causal returns to vocational educ. for students at the margin with academic educ./at the margin with quitting educ.
In his jmp, Andrea explores teachers’ instructional decisions and their implications for the distribution of student achievement. He uses unique data from US elementary schools and estimates an equilibrium model of teacher instructional choices, student effort and achievement.
November 23, 2023 at 3:19 AM
In his jmp, Andrea explores teachers’ instructional decisions and their implications for the distribution of student achievement. He uses unique data from US elementary schools and estimates an equilibrium model of teacher instructional choices, student effort and achievement.
In her jmp, Morgane studies the impact of work-from-home on households' consumption, wealth and housing decisions, both in the short and long-run. She uses detailed UK property-level housing data and a heterogeneous agent model with endogenous housing tenure and city geography.
November 23, 2023 at 3:18 AM
In her jmp, Morgane studies the impact of work-from-home on households' consumption, wealth and housing decisions, both in the short and long-run. She uses detailed UK property-level housing data and a heterogeneous agent model with endogenous housing tenure and city geography.
In his jmp, Jon studies whether unemployment insurance should vary over the business cycle. He derives sufficient statistics formulae and quantifies main forces at play exploiting the large variation in unemployment rate over time and across regions in Spain btw 2005 and 2017.
November 23, 2023 at 3:18 AM
In his jmp, Jon studies whether unemployment insurance should vary over the business cycle. He derives sufficient statistics formulae and quantifies main forces at play exploiting the large variation in unemployment rate over time and across regions in Spain btw 2005 and 2017.
In his jmp, Lorenzo studies a large place-based industrial policy aimed at establishing industrial clusters in Italy in the 60-70s. Results shows agglomeration of workers/firms in targeted areas persisted well after its termination, with spillover from manufacturing to services.
November 23, 2023 at 3:17 AM
In his jmp, Lorenzo studies a large place-based industrial policy aimed at establishing industrial clusters in Italy in the 60-70s. Results shows agglomeration of workers/firms in targeted areas persisted well after its termination, with spillover from manufacturing to services.