Tobias Forsnacke
@forsno.bsky.social
The reverse of that is that the threat won’t be gone if we just deter them 2030. The threat will persist as long as the idea of imperial Russia persist within their leadership and people.
We’ll still need to deter them mid century.
We’ll still need to deter them mid century.
November 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM
The reverse of that is that the threat won’t be gone if we just deter them 2030. The threat will persist as long as the idea of imperial Russia persist within their leadership and people.
We’ll still need to deter them mid century.
We’ll still need to deter them mid century.
It has proven itself to have an insane risk appetite and to expose any weakness in Article 5 limited would be the way to go.
We could be at war tonight.
We could be at war tonight.
November 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM
It has proven itself to have an insane risk appetite and to expose any weakness in Article 5 limited would be the way to go.
We could be at war tonight.
We could be at war tonight.
I think that’s a dangerous mindset to adopt.
Even if Russia won’t be ready for any decisive attack westward before it has regenerated after the war against Ukraine it can still initiate an armed conflict before that.
Even if Russia won’t be ready for any decisive attack westward before it has regenerated after the war against Ukraine it can still initiate an armed conflict before that.
November 30, 2025 at 9:13 AM
I think that’s a dangerous mindset to adopt.
Even if Russia won’t be ready for any decisive attack westward before it has regenerated after the war against Ukraine it can still initiate an armed conflict before that.
Even if Russia won’t be ready for any decisive attack westward before it has regenerated after the war against Ukraine it can still initiate an armed conflict before that.
And this is where I block you. Get fucked Hamas hugger.
November 25, 2025 at 7:48 PM
And this is where I block you. Get fucked Hamas hugger.
They’re both multicultural democracies attacked with genocidal intent. The major differences are that Israel is strong enough to not need any help and that we share main adversary with Ukraine.
The former difference is much more pronounced than the latter.
The former difference is much more pronounced than the latter.
November 25, 2025 at 7:07 PM
They’re both multicultural democracies attacked with genocidal intent. The major differences are that Israel is strong enough to not need any help and that we share main adversary with Ukraine.
The former difference is much more pronounced than the latter.
The former difference is much more pronounced than the latter.
But even if I think that this probably is the best thing DJT has done in his entire miserable life, and by a pretty significant margin, I also agree that Europe needs to reduce its dependence on US technology and its financial system asap as has been stated in this thread.
November 25, 2025 at 5:58 PM
But even if I think that this probably is the best thing DJT has done in his entire miserable life, and by a pretty significant margin, I also agree that Europe needs to reduce its dependence on US technology and its financial system asap as has been stated in this thread.
If Israeli cabinet members should be dragged off to The Hague then so should the governments of any country that found itself at war ever, to face the same charges or worse.
No exception.
No exception.
November 25, 2025 at 5:58 PM
If Israeli cabinet members should be dragged off to The Hague then so should the governments of any country that found itself at war ever, to face the same charges or worse.
No exception.
No exception.
As for the conduct of the war the IDF has fought with a restraint not shown by any other army in built up areas.
The proportion of non-combatants killed is minuscule compared to the battles of Fallujah, Mosul or Raqqa.
The proportion of non-combatants killed is minuscule compared to the battles of Fallujah, Mosul or Raqqa.
November 25, 2025 at 5:57 PM
As for the conduct of the war the IDF has fought with a restraint not shown by any other army in built up areas.
The proportion of non-combatants killed is minuscule compared to the battles of Fallujah, Mosul or Raqqa.
The proportion of non-combatants killed is minuscule compared to the battles of Fallujah, Mosul or Raqqa.
In a war of this length and scale war crimes are likely to be committed regardless of policy and these must be investigated and prosecuted when found.
This is not a task for the ICC but for Israeli authorities.
This is not a task for the ICC but for Israeli authorities.
November 25, 2025 at 5:56 PM
In a war of this length and scale war crimes are likely to be committed regardless of policy and these must be investigated and prosecuted when found.
This is not a task for the ICC but for Israeli authorities.
This is not a task for the ICC but for Israeli authorities.
The obscene part however is the charges themselves.
This is not the equivalent of prosecuting the nazi leadership after the war, rather it’s the equivalent of charging the allied leaders during WWII.
This is not the equivalent of prosecuting the nazi leadership after the war, rather it’s the equivalent of charging the allied leaders during WWII.
November 25, 2025 at 5:55 PM
The obscene part however is the charges themselves.
This is not the equivalent of prosecuting the nazi leadership after the war, rather it’s the equivalent of charging the allied leaders during WWII.
This is not the equivalent of prosecuting the nazi leadership after the war, rather it’s the equivalent of charging the allied leaders during WWII.
To start with jurisdiction, the fig leaf used by ICC is that Palestine signed up. There’s not only no Palestinian state, but there has never been one.
The only two states that were formed out of the British mandate during its decolonisation are Jordan and Israel.
The only two states that were formed out of the British mandate during its decolonisation are Jordan and Israel.
November 25, 2025 at 5:54 PM
To start with jurisdiction, the fig leaf used by ICC is that Palestine signed up. There’s not only no Palestinian state, but there has never been one.
The only two states that were formed out of the British mandate during its decolonisation are Jordan and Israel.
The only two states that were formed out of the British mandate during its decolonisation are Jordan and Israel.
The conduct of the ICC is the very definition of lawfare. It’s as illegal as it is obscene.
November 25, 2025 at 9:35 AM
The conduct of the ICC is the very definition of lawfare. It’s as illegal as it is obscene.
They didn’t because other sovereign states imposed their will on Germany. I doubt anyone is going to war with the US over this.
November 24, 2025 at 9:16 PM
They didn’t because other sovereign states imposed their will on Germany. I doubt anyone is going to war with the US over this.
Also I will block you for the use of the term genocide in this context. But I’ll let this play out first.
November 24, 2025 at 9:13 PM
Also I will block you for the use of the term genocide in this context. But I’ll let this play out first.
Sovereign states are just that: sovereign. They are only bound by the treaties they enter into and incorporate into domestic law. In the case of the US any administration would have retaliated given the American Service-Members' Protection Act of 2002. It even pre-approves the use of military force.
November 24, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Sovereign states are just that: sovereign. They are only bound by the treaties they enter into and incorporate into domestic law. In the case of the US any administration would have retaliated given the American Service-Members' Protection Act of 2002. It even pre-approves the use of military force.
Fundamental to the rule of law is also the question of jurisdiction. The ICC is conducting lawfare against non-signatories and shouldn’t be surprised when there’s pushback.
November 24, 2025 at 8:25 PM
Fundamental to the rule of law is also the question of jurisdiction. The ICC is conducting lawfare against non-signatories and shouldn’t be surprised when there’s pushback.
Availability’s good but they’re using a higher orbit so latency is higher and they require more capable terminals.
That’s why the terminals are the bottleneck.
That’s why the terminals are the bottleneck.
November 23, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Availability’s good but they’re using a higher orbit so latency is higher and they require more capable terminals.
That’s why the terminals are the bottleneck.
That’s why the terminals are the bottleneck.
If we’re talking about data communication then the Eutelsat constellation is already in orbit and many terminals have already been donated.
My link was about local production of Swedish terminals in Ukraine in addition to those donated.
My link was about local production of Swedish terminals in Ukraine in addition to those donated.
November 23, 2025 at 1:55 PM
If we’re talking about data communication then the Eutelsat constellation is already in orbit and many terminals have already been donated.
My link was about local production of Swedish terminals in Ukraine in addition to those donated.
My link was about local production of Swedish terminals in Ukraine in addition to those donated.
Not satellites. Software defined satellite terminals with electronically steered antennas able to be used by vehicles or aircraft under way.
They can connect to any constellation you’re subscribed to up to medium orbits.
The satellites are already in orbit.
They can connect to any constellation you’re subscribed to up to medium orbits.
The satellites are already in orbit.
November 23, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Not satellites. Software defined satellite terminals with electronically steered antennas able to be used by vehicles or aircraft under way.
They can connect to any constellation you’re subscribed to up to medium orbits.
The satellites are already in orbit.
They can connect to any constellation you’re subscribed to up to medium orbits.
The satellites are already in orbit.
*but enough that
November 23, 2025 at 10:57 AM
*but enough that
European alternatives are being scaled up. Not enough to replace Starlink 1:1 yet, but Ukraine that will not lose satcom completely regardless what fuckery the US get up to.
European industry is doing just fine.
techukraine.org/2025/04/10/u...
European industry is doing just fine.
techukraine.org/2025/04/10/u...
Ukraine Secures Swedish Tech Deal to Build Domestic Satellite Terminals, Bolstering Comms Resilience Amidst Turbulence · TechUkraine
STETMAN inks licensing agreement with Requtech, paving the way for onshore production of a crucial Starlink alternative. In a strategic move underscoring the critical need for resilient communications...
techukraine.org
November 23, 2025 at 10:57 AM
European alternatives are being scaled up. Not enough to replace Starlink 1:1 yet, but Ukraine that will not lose satcom completely regardless what fuckery the US get up to.
European industry is doing just fine.
techukraine.org/2025/04/10/u...
European industry is doing just fine.
techukraine.org/2025/04/10/u...