Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
@fiscalcouncil.bsky.social
Ireland's budgetary watchdog
4/4 Spending in 2025 is growing much faster than forecast in the Budget 2025. Supplementary estimates of more than €4 billion have already been introduced for this year. This follows a pattern of repeated spending overruns in recent years.
December 3, 2025 at 5:46 PM
4/4 Spending in 2025 is growing much faster than forecast in the Budget 2025. Supplementary estimates of more than €4 billion have already been introduced for this year. This follows a pattern of repeated spending overruns in recent years.
3/4 Given the Government is collecting huge amounts of corporation tax, it has an opportunity to save today to prepare for future challenges, like an ageing population and climate change. Budget 2026 suggests that only 15% of corporation tax will be saved next year.
December 3, 2025 at 5:45 PM
3/4 Given the Government is collecting huge amounts of corporation tax, it has an opportunity to save today to prepare for future challenges, like an ageing population and climate change. Budget 2026 suggests that only 15% of corporation tax will be saved next year.
2/4 Corporation tax receipts in the month of November were €10 billion, up €2.7 billion on last year. Receipts in November alone were greater than the annual receipts in all years prior to 2018.
December 3, 2025 at 5:45 PM
2/4 Corporation tax receipts in the month of November were €10 billion, up €2.7 billion on last year. Receipts in November alone were greater than the annual receipts in all years prior to 2018.
9/9 The Council recommends the following:
1 Use budgetary policy to reduce the ups and downs of the economic cycle.
2 Run bigger surpluses today and set more aside into savings funds.
3 Set a rule or guide for budgetary policy.
4 Set five-year-ahead budgetary forecasts.
1 Use budgetary policy to reduce the ups and downs of the economic cycle.
2 Run bigger surpluses today and set more aside into savings funds.
3 Set a rule or guide for budgetary policy.
4 Set five-year-ahead budgetary forecasts.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
9/9 The Council recommends the following:
1 Use budgetary policy to reduce the ups and downs of the economic cycle.
2 Run bigger surpluses today and set more aside into savings funds.
3 Set a rule or guide for budgetary policy.
4 Set five-year-ahead budgetary forecasts.
1 Use budgetary policy to reduce the ups and downs of the economic cycle.
2 Run bigger surpluses today and set more aside into savings funds.
3 Set a rule or guide for budgetary policy.
4 Set five-year-ahead budgetary forecasts.
8/9 The Government needs to move away from year-to-year budgeting. Moving to multi-annual budgeting would give government agencies more certainty over their future funding. This would aid better planning and delivery of public services.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
8/9 The Government needs to move away from year-to-year budgeting. Moving to multi-annual budgeting would give government agencies more certainty over their future funding. This would aid better planning and delivery of public services.
7/9 The Government is budgeting like there’s no tomorrow. There are no budgetary forecasts beyond 2026. The Government is also yet to submit a revised medium term fiscal plan to the European Commission.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
7/9 The Government is budgeting like there’s no tomorrow. There are no budgetary forecasts beyond 2026. The Government is also yet to submit a revised medium term fiscal plan to the European Commission.
6/9 Spending (net of tax measures) is still rising at a fast pace. Budget day forecasts suggest a slowdown in spending growth next year. Given the pattern of spending overruns in recent years, government expenditure may grow faster than Budget 2026 figures suggest.
November 26, 2025 at 9:15 AM
6/9 Spending (net of tax measures) is still rising at a fast pace. Budget day forecasts suggest a slowdown in spending growth next year. Given the pattern of spending overruns in recent years, government expenditure may grow faster than Budget 2026 figures suggest.
5/9 Against this backdrop, budgetary policy continues to add money into the economy when it is not needed. The government plans to spend most of its corporation tax receipts. Only 15% of total corporation tax receipts will be saved next year, down from 32% this year.
November 26, 2025 at 9:12 AM
5/9 Against this backdrop, budgetary policy continues to add money into the economy when it is not needed. The government plans to spend most of its corporation tax receipts. Only 15% of total corporation tax receipts will be saved next year, down from 32% this year.
4/9 Ireland is going to face large budgetary challenges in the decades ahead. Costs from an ageing population and climate change are equivalent to €20 billion in today’s money.
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
4/9 Ireland is going to face large budgetary challenges in the decades ahead. Costs from an ageing population and climate change are equivalent to €20 billion in today’s money.
3/9 On a headline level, the public finances are in a good position. However, surpluses are driven by extraordinary corporation tax receipts.
November 26, 2025 at 9:11 AM
3/9 On a headline level, the public finances are in a good position. However, surpluses are driven by extraordinary corporation tax receipts.
2/9 Firstly, the economy continues to perform well. Employment has reached record highs and continues to grow. The Irish economy does not require support from budgetary policy.
November 26, 2025 at 9:10 AM
2/9 Firstly, the economy continues to perform well. Employment has reached record highs and continues to grow. The Irish economy does not require support from budgetary policy.
7/7 Ireland’s corporation taxes could become even more concentrated. Any future large profits from artificial intelligence and weight-loss or diabetes drugs will likely accrue to a small number of very big firms. This increases the risk of sudden swings (up or down) in revenue.
November 12, 2025 at 9:26 AM
7/7 Ireland’s corporation taxes could become even more concentrated. Any future large profits from artificial intelligence and weight-loss or diabetes drugs will likely accrue to a small number of very big firms. This increases the risk of sudden swings (up or down) in revenue.
6/7 On the downside, the pharma sector could face tariffs. In addition, there are also policies in motion to reduce drug prices in the US. For the tech sector, the longer-term prospects depend on whether large investments in AI generate higher profits, which is still uncertain.
November 12, 2025 at 9:26 AM
6/7 On the downside, the pharma sector could face tariffs. In addition, there are also policies in motion to reduce drug prices in the US. For the tech sector, the longer-term prospects depend on whether large investments in AI generate higher profits, which is still uncertain.
5/7 In addition, Ireland has also introduced a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large firms, as part of the OECD’s Pillar II reforms. This will yield additional revenue from mid-2026.
November 12, 2025 at 9:26 AM
5/7 In addition, Ireland has also introduced a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large firms, as part of the OECD’s Pillar II reforms. This will yield additional revenue from mid-2026.
4/7 On the upside, profits in the tech sector are likely to increase further, aided by advances in AI and growing demand for their products and services. In the pharma sector, Ireland is likely to benefit from a surge in demand for weight-loss and diabetes medicines.
November 12, 2025 at 9:25 AM
4/7 On the upside, profits in the tech sector are likely to increase further, aided by advances in AI and growing demand for their products and services. In the pharma sector, Ireland is likely to benefit from a surge in demand for weight-loss and diabetes medicines.
3/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues have become more risky. That is, future receipts could be much higher or lower than current levels.
November 12, 2025 at 9:25 AM
3/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues have become more risky. That is, future receipts could be much higher or lower than current levels.
2/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues could be even higher than they might otherwise have been in the short term. This is because one large pharma group frontloaded some exports to the US ahead of the expected tariffs.
November 12, 2025 at 9:25 AM
2/7 Ireland’s corporation tax revenues could be even higher than they might otherwise have been in the short term. This is because one large pharma group frontloaded some exports to the US ahead of the expected tariffs.
4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace in 2025. Growth in current spending so far this year is 6%, ahead of the 3.3% assumed in Budget 2026. Most areas of spending are growing quickly, but spending in Education, Children and Justice is growing particularly fast.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
4/4 Current spending is growing at a fast pace in 2025. Growth in current spending so far this year is 6%, ahead of the 3.3% assumed in Budget 2026. Most areas of spending are growing quickly, but spending in Education, Children and Justice is growing particularly fast.
3/4 Corporation tax continues to be volatile. Monthly receipts for October are up €0.7 billion on last year. For the year-to-date, corporation tax, excluding CJEU receipts, are up €1.1 billion, or 6.3%. Continued strength is expected for corporation tax in the near term.
November 5, 2025 at 6:04 PM
3/4 Corporation tax continues to be volatile. Monthly receipts for October are up €0.7 billion on last year. For the year-to-date, corporation tax, excluding CJEU receipts, are up €1.1 billion, or 6.3%. Continued strength is expected for corporation tax in the near term.
2/4 Underlying revenue in 2025 has grown faster than forecast in Budget 2025. This faster growth is seen across the key tax headings, with the exception of VAT, which is below forecast.
November 5, 2025 at 6:03 PM
2/4 Underlying revenue in 2025 has grown faster than forecast in Budget 2025. This faster growth is seen across the key tax headings, with the exception of VAT, which is below forecast.