Ewan Hoyle
@ewanhoyle.bsky.social
Lead strategist at Sprint for PR, the progressive campaign for the electoral reform that protects us all from illegitimate right-wing rule.
Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.
Progressive co-operation can deliver the reform we need in this parliament.
Would you say this was a problematic page to find in a children's book?
November 22, 2025 at 11:31 PM
Would you say this was a problematic page to find in a children's book?
Less than half of Green supporters voted Green. Even in perceived Green-Labour races, they didn't bother voting Green.
That is a major boo-boo.
"There is no tactical vote now" is quite the dumbest statement you've made today.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
That is a major boo-boo.
"There is no tactical vote now" is quite the dumbest statement you've made today.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
November 18, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Less than half of Green supporters voted Green. Even in perceived Green-Labour races, they didn't bother voting Green.
That is a major boo-boo.
"There is no tactical vote now" is quite the dumbest statement you've made today.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
That is a major boo-boo.
"There is no tactical vote now" is quite the dumbest statement you've made today.
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Anyway, you and Ed are the tiny red bit at the end of the top line.
The question also asks about supporting the Lib Dems in coalition. The same question now would be the other way around, so I suspect members would be even happier with that.
The question also asks about supporting the Lib Dems in coalition. The same question now would be the other way around, so I suspect members would be even happier with that.
November 18, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Anyway, you and Ed are the tiny red bit at the end of the top line.
The question also asks about supporting the Lib Dems in coalition. The same question now would be the other way around, so I suspect members would be even happier with that.
The question also asks about supporting the Lib Dems in coalition. The same question now would be the other way around, so I suspect members would be even happier with that.
You've just said the Lib Dems are a Thatcherite party, yet all voters, and their voters, and Green voters place them left of centre. You're just untethered from political reality.
November 18, 2025 at 4:08 PM
You've just said the Lib Dems are a Thatcherite party, yet all voters, and their voters, and Green voters place them left of centre. You're just untethered from political reality.
It may be wild to you, but it's not wild to anyone who has looked for evidence before expressing their opinion.
November 18, 2025 at 2:50 PM
It may be wild to you, but it's not wild to anyone who has looked for evidence before expressing their opinion.
I guess the choice is between performative cruelty and electoral reform to the Single transferable vote if it's "stopping Reform UK" that is the priority.
Only one of these will work, though.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
Only one of these will work, though.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
November 18, 2025 at 7:18 AM
I guess the choice is between performative cruelty and electoral reform to the Single transferable vote if it's "stopping Reform UK" that is the priority.
Only one of these will work, though.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
Only one of these will work, though.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
That's exactly what the single transferable vote could do. We shouldn't be considering anything without a ranked preference aspect to it.
We could even recommend it to other countries with rising far-right problems.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
We could even recommend it to other countries with rising far-right problems.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
November 17, 2025 at 7:17 PM
That's exactly what the single transferable vote could do. We shouldn't be considering anything without a ranked preference aspect to it.
We could even recommend it to other countries with rising far-right problems.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
We could even recommend it to other countries with rising far-right problems.
open.substack.com/pub/ewanhoyl...
If we want to explicitly block Reform UK, then we have to pick a ranked preference system like STV.
STV would adjust their representation down from that which is proportional to their first preferences. The 48% of the population who would rank them dead last would be well up for it.
STV would adjust their representation down from that which is proportional to their first preferences. The 48% of the population who would rank them dead last would be well up for it.
November 17, 2025 at 4:53 PM
If we want to explicitly block Reform UK, then we have to pick a ranked preference system like STV.
STV would adjust their representation down from that which is proportional to their first preferences. The 48% of the population who would rank them dead last would be well up for it.
STV would adjust their representation down from that which is proportional to their first preferences. The 48% of the population who would rank them dead last would be well up for it.
30% of the population hate Labour, and are voting Reform.
48% of the population hate Reform UK, are watching Labour copy their rhetoric, and are starting to hate Labour, too.
Odds on a Green-Lib Dem coalition government must be shortening every day.
48% of the population hate Reform UK, are watching Labour copy their rhetoric, and are starting to hate Labour, too.
Odds on a Green-Lib Dem coalition government must be shortening every day.
November 16, 2025 at 9:31 PM
30% of the population hate Labour, and are voting Reform.
48% of the population hate Reform UK, are watching Labour copy their rhetoric, and are starting to hate Labour, too.
Odds on a Green-Lib Dem coalition government must be shortening every day.
48% of the population hate Reform UK, are watching Labour copy their rhetoric, and are starting to hate Labour, too.
Odds on a Green-Lib Dem coalition government must be shortening every day.
I guess they would be in the half of the country's voters who would rank Reform dead last given the chance.
Appeal to the 30%? Appall the 48%.
It's a humongous failure of understanding of the electorate.
Appeal to the 30%? Appall the 48%.
It's a humongous failure of understanding of the electorate.
November 15, 2025 at 7:10 AM
I guess they would be in the half of the country's voters who would rank Reform dead last given the chance.
Appeal to the 30%? Appall the 48%.
It's a humongous failure of understanding of the electorate.
Appeal to the 30%? Appall the 48%.
It's a humongous failure of understanding of the electorate.
But if you appeal to the 30% who rank them first, you appall the 48% who rank them last.
Just make good TV, maybe?
Just make good TV, maybe?
November 11, 2025 at 12:44 PM
But if you appeal to the 30% who rank them first, you appall the 48% who rank them last.
Just make good TV, maybe?
Just make good TV, maybe?
On the Green surge issue, did you cover the possibility that a large proportion of their supporters are still giving a tactical voting intention for Labour in voting intention polls?
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
November 11, 2025 at 8:58 AM
On the Green surge issue, did you cover the possibility that a large proportion of their supporters are still giving a tactical voting intention for Labour in voting intention polls?
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
The ranked preference poll from early October (when they were 11 points behind Labour with YouGov) showed this 👇
Ah, fuck Alex, you made me cry.
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
November 10, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Ah, fuck Alex, you made me cry.
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
This was one of my last messages to Peter before he passed away. That was a big, fuck-off lemon.
I'm now committed to bringing about the Green-Lib Dem coalition government that will treat drug users with dignity. I'm demanding a ripe honey mango in his memory. 🥭
They may have around 30% in the polls, but nearly half of voters would rank them dead last if they had the chance. They also have the lowest mean favourability score of all the parties.
November 10, 2025 at 12:59 PM
They may have around 30% in the polls, but nearly half of voters would rank them dead last if they had the chance. They also have the lowest mean favourability score of all the parties.
It's a massive potential effect whenever the pollsters measure it (which is almost never).
November 5, 2025 at 10:20 PM
It's a massive potential effect whenever the pollsters measure it (which is almost never).
November 5, 2025 at 9:55 PM
AV might have stopped the rise of Reform UK. If all of our polls were ranked preference polls, then they would consistently show Reform UK being ranked last by around half of voters. That sends a message to potential members and supporters as well as the media that they are deeply unpopular.
November 1, 2025 at 9:49 PM
AV might have stopped the rise of Reform UK. If all of our polls were ranked preference polls, then they would consistently show Reform UK being ranked last by around half of voters. That sends a message to potential members and supporters as well as the media that they are deeply unpopular.
Second and third preferences will cause significant adjustments after first preferences are counted, and Reform UK support pretty much disappears after first preferences.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
November 1, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Second and third preferences will cause significant adjustments after first preferences are counted, and Reform UK support pretty much disappears after first preferences.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
48% of voters would rank Reform UK dead last. This hasn't changed since the week of the last election.
STV can stop Reform UK.
Half of voters would rank Reform dead last. These people could do with being less silent.
October 27, 2025 at 8:52 PM
Half of voters would rank Reform dead last. These people could do with being less silent.
Very similar to the 48% who would rank them last of the 5 major parties.
October 26, 2025 at 9:05 PM
Very similar to the 48% who would rank them last of the 5 major parties.
I'm enormously proud of the analysis and polling that I have caused to happen over the last few weeks.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
October 25, 2025 at 10:05 PM
I'm enormously proud of the analysis and polling that I have caused to happen over the last few weeks.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
My obsessive pursuit of understanding of tactical voting has finally yielded the insights that I believe should transform the prospects for electoral reform in this parliament.
The UK public really aren't into this shit.
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
October 23, 2025 at 10:43 PM
The UK public really aren't into this shit.
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
What chance a Green-Lib Dem coalition government after the next election?
Time for electoral reform to the Single transferable vote. You need a system that reflects that most voters hate them with a passion.
October 20, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Time for electoral reform to the Single transferable vote. You need a system that reflects that most voters hate them with a passion.
Are there any plans to write up the results of the preferential poll from the start of the month?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
October 20, 2025 at 10:35 AM
Are there any plans to write up the results of the preferential poll from the start of the month?
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Gr...
What's happened to the analysis of the poll the Green Party commissioned?
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
October 19, 2025 at 10:14 PM
What's happened to the analysis of the poll the Green Party commissioned?
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!
It looks clear that Greens are the most preferred party of the under 50s, not just the 18-24s!