Evan Miyakawa
@evanmiya.bsky.social
College basketball analytics at EvanMiya.com. PhD Statistician / Data Scientist. Featured in ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic, Wall Street Journal. Hebrews 11:6.
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
November 13, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Tonight's blockbuster matchup between Purdue and Alabama is genuinely one of the most enticing non-con matchups we could possibly have.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The stakes feel so high. Will Purdue finally show their title credentials? Is this Alabama team Final Four good?
Predicted score Bama 84-82.
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
October 21, 2025 at 6:16 PM
The top 30 individual seasons in college basketball since 2010, using Bayesian Performance Rating at EvanMiya.com. BPR quantifies per-possession value added through box stats and team impact metrics ⤵️
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
October 14, 2025 at 5:21 PM
The disparity between the high majors and the rest of college basketball has never felt bigger. The conference strength drop from the Big East to the A-10 is larger than the gap between 6th and 17th.
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Here's the full conference rankings list from EvanMiya.com ⬇️
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
October 12, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Interesting to compare the preseason top 50 at EvanMiya.com to @kenpom.com, which just released this morning.
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Some teams I'm higher on:
Arizona
BYU
Oregon
NC State
Miami
Oklahoma
Teams I'm lower on:
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Baylor
Wisconsin
USC
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
October 8, 2025 at 4:52 PM
Here are the top 30 players in CBB in the preseason ratings at EvanMiya.com!
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
These projections take into account statistical output, impact on team performance, performance in previous seasons, and high school recruiting profile.
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
September 29, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Here is the preseason top 25 at EvanMiya.com!
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
September 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
CBB preseason projections are live at EvanMiya.com!
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
You'll find:
🏀 Team and player projections
💪 MVP and Most Indispensable player rankings
📈 Roster strength rankings, player skill grades, and much more
Here are the top 10 teams and players ⬇️
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
March 19, 2025 at 11:00 PM
My official bracket is done.
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
Here's my analysis of all my picks:
And here are the teams who struggle the most against the best teams on their schedule:
1. Illinois
2. Texas
3. Utah State
4. Baylor
5. Vanderbilt
1. Illinois
2. Texas
3. Utah State
4. Baylor
5. Vanderbilt
March 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
And here are the teams who struggle the most against the best teams on their schedule:
1. Illinois
2. Texas
3. Utah State
4. Baylor
5. Vanderbilt
1. Illinois
2. Texas
3. Utah State
4. Baylor
5. Vanderbilt
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
March 19, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Here are the tournament teams that play up to competition the most, according to the Opponent Strength Adjustment at EvanMiya.com. They play their best ball against top opposition:
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
1. Florida
2. New Mexico
3. Memphis
4. Drake
5. Wisconsin
6. St. John's
7. Grand Canyon
You can see the full injury reports and how much of an adjustment is made for each matchup on the Matchup Preview page at EvanMiya.com.
Here is Iowa State's matchup against Lipscomb:
Here is Iowa State's matchup against Lipscomb:
March 18, 2025 at 11:21 PM
You can see the full injury reports and how much of an adjustment is made for each matchup on the Matchup Preview page at EvanMiya.com.
Here is Iowa State's matchup against Lipscomb:
Here is Iowa State's matchup against Lipscomb:
Finally we have the "Suspect" teams according to the Kill Shot.
They give up a ton of 10-0 runs and aren't super capable of firing back.
They give up a ton of 10-0 runs and aren't super capable of firing back.
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Finally we have the "Suspect" teams according to the Kill Shot.
They give up a ton of 10-0 runs and aren't super capable of firing back.
They give up a ton of 10-0 runs and aren't super capable of firing back.
Here are the "Least Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.
These teams struggle to go on scoring runs, but they also rarely give them up. Leads are more safe in these games.
These teams struggle to go on scoring runs, but they also rarely give them up. Leads are more safe in these games.
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Here are the "Least Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.
These teams struggle to go on scoring runs, but they also rarely give them up. Leads are more safe in these games.
These teams struggle to go on scoring runs, but they also rarely give them up. Leads are more safe in these games.
Here are the "Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.
These teams go on lots of 10-0 runs, but they give them up frequently as well. Games with these teams are often pretty back and forth, and no lead is safe.
These teams go on lots of 10-0 runs, but they give them up frequently as well. Games with these teams are often pretty back and forth, and no lead is safe.
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Here are the "Streaky" teams according to the Kill Shot.
These teams go on lots of 10-0 runs, but they give them up frequently as well. Games with these teams are often pretty back and forth, and no lead is safe.
These teams go on lots of 10-0 runs, but they give them up frequently as well. Games with these teams are often pretty back and forth, and no lead is safe.
Here are the Strong Teams in the tournament according to the Kill Shot.
Yale rates as the best team in the country at going on 10-0 runs after adjusting for competition, while Duke has the best overall Kill Shot Margin.
Yale rates as the best team in the country at going on 10-0 runs after adjusting for competition, while Duke has the best overall Kill Shot Margin.
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
Here are the Strong Teams in the tournament according to the Kill Shot.
Yale rates as the best team in the country at going on 10-0 runs after adjusting for competition, while Duke has the best overall Kill Shot Margin.
Yale rates as the best team in the country at going on 10-0 runs after adjusting for competition, while Duke has the best overall Kill Shot Margin.
The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
March 18, 2025 at 8:32 PM
The "Kill Shot": Tracking 10-0 scoring runs for tournament teams!
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
The graph shows how many 10-0 runs a team has per game and how many runs they concede, adjusted for competition 👇
Here are the 12 "underseeded" teams in the tournament, based on being way stronger than usual for their seed.
Duke also qualifies, but they can't be seeded better than a 1, so they aren't listed here:
Duke also qualifies, but they can't be seeded better than a 1, so they aren't listed here:
March 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Here are the 12 "underseeded" teams in the tournament, based on being way stronger than usual for their seed.
Duke also qualifies, but they can't be seeded better than a 1, so they aren't listed here:
Duke also qualifies, but they can't be seeded better than a 1, so they aren't listed here:
Here is how every tournament team stacks up based on their team strength compared to their seed, using ratings at EvanMiya.com.
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
March 18, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Here is how every tournament team stacks up based on their team strength compared to their seed, using ratings at EvanMiya.com.
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
Teams way better than typical for their seed are "underseeded" and advance 59% further than normal. There are 12 teams this year 👇
There are only five teams I'd feel comfortable picking as the winner in my bracket.
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
March 18, 2025 at 12:10 AM
There are only five teams I'd feel comfortable picking as the winner in my bracket.
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
Digging into the efficiency numbers here, including some tough paths for a few teams 👇
Here is the March Madness efficiency landscape, comparing each team's predicted offensive and defensive efficiency at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for current injuries:
March 17, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Here is the March Madness efficiency landscape, comparing each team's predicted offensive and defensive efficiency at EvanMiya.com, adjusted for current injuries:
Here's the very first simulation I ran:
March 17, 2025 at 12:34 AM
Here's the very first simulation I ran:
West Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
March 16, 2025 at 11:07 PM
West Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
Midwest Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
March 16, 2025 at 11:07 PM
Midwest Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
East Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
March 16, 2025 at 11:07 PM
East Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
South Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com:
March 16, 2025 at 11:07 PM
South Regional tournament probabilities from EvanMiya.com: