ESM2025
@esm2025.bsky.social
🌍 H2020 EU project developing the next-generation of Earth system models in support of the Paris Agreement.
From groundbreaking research to policymaking & education.
🌐 www.esm2025.eu | #ClimateResearchNet
From groundbreaking research to policymaking & education.
🌐 www.esm2025.eu | #ClimateResearchNet
In many ways, this work only begins to scratch the surface of what is needed to robustly evaluate land-based CDR....
... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇
... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇
November 29, 2025 at 6:01 PM
In many ways, this work only begins to scratch the surface of what is needed to robustly evaluate land-based CDR....
... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇
... and to end this #ESM2025research series of posts on our latest research highlight about land-based carbon dioxide removal, what's ahead?
🧵👇
Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change...
Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
November 29, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change...
Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Want to know more?
👀Check out our latest research highlight on land-based carbon dioxide removal: bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
The biggest wild card for land-based mitigation might not be future response of carbon stocks to climate change — but today’s carbon stock densities. Small shifts within their plausible range flip land-use emissions from slightly net-negative to +60 GtCO₂ by 2050.
#ESM2025research
#ESM2025research
November 28, 2025 at 9:02 AM
The biggest wild card for land-based mitigation might not be future response of carbon stocks to climate change — but today’s carbon stock densities. Small shifts within their plausible range flip land-use emissions from slightly net-negative to +60 GtCO₂ by 2050.
#ESM2025research
#ESM2025research
Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change... (6/7)
They also support a broader conclusion👇
They also support a broader conclusion👇
November 25, 2025 at 7:28 AM
Our analysis suggests that uncertainties in current carbon stocks are even larger than those related to how these stocks may respond to future climate change... (6/7)
They also support a broader conclusion👇
They also support a broader conclusion👇
In the process of exploring ways to integrate carbon stock dynamics into the ESM-IAM modelling framework...
💡...a case of scientific serendipity emerged, giving rise to an entirely new line of research that had not been previously explored!
🧵👇(1/7)
#ESM2025research
💡...a case of scientific serendipity emerged, giving rise to an entirely new line of research that had not been previously explored!
🧵👇(1/7)
#ESM2025research
November 25, 2025 at 7:28 AM
In the process of exploring ways to integrate carbon stock dynamics into the ESM-IAM modelling framework...
💡...a case of scientific serendipity emerged, giving rise to an entirely new line of research that had not been previously explored!
🧵👇(1/7)
#ESM2025research
💡...a case of scientific serendipity emerged, giving rise to an entirely new line of research that had not been previously explored!
🧵👇(1/7)
#ESM2025research
🌡️🌿The models also showed that the land's ability to store carbon may weaken over time, especially in warmer and drier conditions.
➡️This could make it harder to meet climate goals if too much reliance is placed on land-based removals.
#ESM2025research
(3/4)
➡️This could make it harder to meet climate goals if too much reliance is placed on land-based removals.
#ESM2025research
(3/4)
November 24, 2025 at 12:04 PM
🌡️🌿The models also showed that the land's ability to store carbon may weaken over time, especially in warmer and drier conditions.
➡️This could make it harder to meet climate goals if too much reliance is placed on land-based removals.
#ESM2025research
(3/4)
➡️This could make it harder to meet climate goals if too much reliance is placed on land-based removals.
#ESM2025research
(3/4)
💦 Irrigation can lower land surface temperatures and increase humidity, but may reduce runoff and alter regional water availability.
🚜🌿Large-scale bioenergy crops may help remove CO₂, but can also compete with food production and strain water resources.
(2/4)
🚜🌿Large-scale bioenergy crops may help remove CO₂, but can also compete with food production and strain water resources.
(2/4)
November 24, 2025 at 12:04 PM
💦 Irrigation can lower land surface temperatures and increase humidity, but may reduce runoff and alter regional water availability.
🚜🌿Large-scale bioenergy crops may help remove CO₂, but can also compete with food production and strain water resources.
(2/4)
🚜🌿Large-scale bioenergy crops may help remove CO₂, but can also compete with food production and strain water resources.
(2/4)
What our multimodel analysis has shown:
🌴In tropical regions, planting trees tends to cool the climate;
❄️In high-latitude areas, new forests can darken snowy surfaces & cause local warming, despite their CO₂ removal potential
Tree planting isn’t a simple, one-size-fits-all fix overall!
(1/4)🧵👇
🌴In tropical regions, planting trees tends to cool the climate;
❄️In high-latitude areas, new forests can darken snowy surfaces & cause local warming, despite their CO₂ removal potential
Tree planting isn’t a simple, one-size-fits-all fix overall!
(1/4)🧵👇
November 24, 2025 at 12:04 PM
What our multimodel analysis has shown:
🌴In tropical regions, planting trees tends to cool the climate;
❄️In high-latitude areas, new forests can darken snowy surfaces & cause local warming, despite their CO₂ removal potential
Tree planting isn’t a simple, one-size-fits-all fix overall!
(1/4)🧵👇
🌴In tropical regions, planting trees tends to cool the climate;
❄️In high-latitude areas, new forests can darken snowy surfaces & cause local warming, despite their CO₂ removal potential
Tree planting isn’t a simple, one-size-fits-all fix overall!
(1/4)🧵👇
🔎 Want to know how our worked contributed to answer to this hard question?
Check out our latest research highlight:
"Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies" 👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Check out our latest research highlight:
"Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies" 👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
November 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
🔎 Want to know how our worked contributed to answer to this hard question?
Check out our latest research highlight:
"Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies" 👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Check out our latest research highlight:
"Can We Count on the Land? Exploring the Uncertainty of Land-based Mitigation Strategies" 👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Check out our latest highlight on how we worked on the assessment of climate impacts of land-based CDR across three angles:
🔄Carbon cycle changes
🌳Impacts on local climate, agriculture and hydrology
📉The Socio-economic dimension: uncertainty and risks
👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
🔄Carbon cycle changes
🌳Impacts on local climate, agriculture and hydrology
📉The Socio-economic dimension: uncertainty and risks
👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
November 21, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Check out our latest highlight on how we worked on the assessment of climate impacts of land-based CDR across three angles:
🔄Carbon cycle changes
🌳Impacts on local climate, agriculture and hydrology
📉The Socio-economic dimension: uncertainty and risks
👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
🔄Carbon cycle changes
🌳Impacts on local climate, agriculture and hydrology
📉The Socio-economic dimension: uncertainty and risks
👉bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#ESM2025research
Can we really count on land to deliver climate mitigation?
Our new highlight unpacks what AR/BECCS can do — and where uncertainties bite (carbon stocks, permanence, local climate effects).
Full story → bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#CDR #ESM2025research
@euclimateaction.bsky.social
Our new highlight unpacks what AR/BECCS can do — and where uncertainties bite (carbon stocks, permanence, local climate effects).
Full story → bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#CDR #ESM2025research
@euclimateaction.bsky.social
November 18, 2025 at 7:33 AM
Can we really count on land to deliver climate mitigation?
Our new highlight unpacks what AR/BECCS can do — and where uncertainties bite (carbon stocks, permanence, local climate effects).
Full story → bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#CDR #ESM2025research
@euclimateaction.bsky.social
Our new highlight unpacks what AR/BECCS can do — and where uncertainties bite (carbon stocks, permanence, local climate effects).
Full story → bit.ly/4qMYPEy
#CDR #ESM2025research
@euclimateaction.bsky.social
By this time yesterday, we were seeing everyone again for the Climate Research Communication Network 6th Meeting!
We kept doing what this network does best:connect project/comm managers & DEC people from EU climate projects so we don’t all reinvent the wheel &so we can amplify each other’s work💪🌍
We kept doing what this network does best:connect project/comm managers & DEC people from EU climate projects so we don’t all reinvent the wheel &so we can amplify each other’s work💪🌍
November 5, 2025 at 2:40 PM
By this time yesterday, we were seeing everyone again for the Climate Research Communication Network 6th Meeting!
We kept doing what this network does best:connect project/comm managers & DEC people from EU climate projects so we don’t all reinvent the wheel &so we can amplify each other’s work💪🌍
We kept doing what this network does best:connect project/comm managers & DEC people from EU climate projects so we don’t all reinvent the wheel &so we can amplify each other’s work💪🌍
Day 3. GA's last morning: Wrap-up & perspectives with @rolandseferian.bsky.social and others.
4.5 years together. In a little over a month the project ends. Today we celebrate what we built in science and in community.
#ESM2025inToulouse is over.
4.5 years together. In a little over a month the project ends. Today we celebrate what we built in science and in community.
#ESM2025inToulouse is over.
October 9, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Day 3. GA's last morning: Wrap-up & perspectives with @rolandseferian.bsky.social and others.
4.5 years together. In a little over a month the project ends. Today we celebrate what we built in science and in community.
#ESM2025inToulouse is over.
4.5 years together. In a little over a month the project ends. Today we celebrate what we built in science and in community.
#ESM2025inToulouse is over.
Night two, conference diner: Toulouse turns theatrical.
Dinner at Halle de la Machine, with a private "Real Machinists show" just before. Only who was here can tell the tale. 🦾🍽️🔥
#ESM2025inToulouse #HalleDeLaMachine
Dinner at Halle de la Machine, with a private "Real Machinists show" just before. Only who was here can tell the tale. 🦾🍽️🔥
#ESM2025inToulouse #HalleDeLaMachine
October 8, 2025 at 6:36 PM
Night two, conference diner: Toulouse turns theatrical.
Dinner at Halle de la Machine, with a private "Real Machinists show" just before. Only who was here can tell the tale. 🦾🍽️🔥
#ESM2025inToulouse #HalleDeLaMachine
Dinner at Halle de la Machine, with a private "Real Machinists show" just before. Only who was here can tell the tale. 🦾🍽️🔥
#ESM2025inToulouse #HalleDeLaMachine
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Towards methane emission driven simulations with ICON-XPP
By Stiig Wilkenskjeld (MPI-M)
By Stiig Wilkenskjeld (MPI-M)
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Towards methane emission driven simulations with ICON-XPP
By Stiig Wilkenskjeld (MPI-M)
By Stiig Wilkenskjeld (MPI-M)
Interactive ice sheets with Elmer/Ice in the IPSL climate model
by Lucas Bastien @igegrenoble.bsky.social
by Lucas Bastien @igegrenoble.bsky.social
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Interactive ice sheets with Elmer/Ice in the IPSL climate model
by Lucas Bastien @igegrenoble.bsky.social
by Lucas Bastien @igegrenoble.bsky.social
New ESMValTool capabilities for the evaluation of novel emission-driven Earth System Models,
By Julien Lenhardt from SMHI
By Julien Lenhardt from SMHI
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
New ESMValTool capabilities for the evaluation of novel emission-driven Earth System Models,
By Julien Lenhardt from SMHI
By Julien Lenhardt from SMHI
"The Emissions-Driven Legacy of ESM2025"
A great legacy, we're proud of!
By @benjaminsanderson.bsky.social @cicero.oslo.no
A great legacy, we're proud of!
By @benjaminsanderson.bsky.social @cicero.oslo.no
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
"The Emissions-Driven Legacy of ESM2025"
A great legacy, we're proud of!
By @benjaminsanderson.bsky.social @cicero.oslo.no
A great legacy, we're proud of!
By @benjaminsanderson.bsky.social @cicero.oslo.no
Kicking off talks on our Core Theme 2 (Enabling & exploring new couplings between Earth system components research) with a key research output:
Keynote #2-Multi-model assessment of the coupled CH4 cycle
by Martin Cussac (#CNRM @meteofrance.com @cnrs.fr).
+ CT2: bit.ly/3Ntn3zL
#ESM2025inToulouse
Keynote #2-Multi-model assessment of the coupled CH4 cycle
by Martin Cussac (#CNRM @meteofrance.com @cnrs.fr).
+ CT2: bit.ly/3Ntn3zL
#ESM2025inToulouse
October 8, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Kicking off talks on our Core Theme 2 (Enabling & exploring new couplings between Earth system components research) with a key research output:
Keynote #2-Multi-model assessment of the coupled CH4 cycle
by Martin Cussac (#CNRM @meteofrance.com @cnrs.fr).
+ CT2: bit.ly/3Ntn3zL
#ESM2025inToulouse
Keynote #2-Multi-model assessment of the coupled CH4 cycle
by Martin Cussac (#CNRM @meteofrance.com @cnrs.fr).
+ CT2: bit.ly/3Ntn3zL
#ESM2025inToulouse
Back from our vegan lunch — espresso kicks in.
Two rooms, two workshops:
•TCRE- @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
•ESM Challenges: Complexity, Resolution & AI - chaired by Colin Jones @universityofleeds.bsky.social with presentations for various ESM2025 researchers.
#ESM2025inToulouse
Two rooms, two workshops:
•TCRE- @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
•ESM Challenges: Complexity, Resolution & AI - chaired by Colin Jones @universityofleeds.bsky.social with presentations for various ESM2025 researchers.
#ESM2025inToulouse
October 8, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Back from our vegan lunch — espresso kicks in.
Two rooms, two workshops:
•TCRE- @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
•ESM Challenges: Complexity, Resolution & AI - chaired by Colin Jones @universityofleeds.bsky.social with presentations for various ESM2025 researchers.
#ESM2025inToulouse
Two rooms, two workshops:
•TCRE- @chrisd-jones.bsky.social @metoffice.gov.uk
•ESM Challenges: Complexity, Resolution & AI - chaired by Colin Jones @universityofleeds.bsky.social with presentations for various ESM2025 researchers.
#ESM2025inToulouse
Emerging model bias: Models fail to simulate temperature and energy imbalance ‘correctly --> Updated constraint: Constraints based on observed temperature and energy imbalance.
By Gergana Gyuleva @ethz.ch
By Gergana Gyuleva @ethz.ch
October 8, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Emerging model bias: Models fail to simulate temperature and energy imbalance ‘correctly --> Updated constraint: Constraints based on observed temperature and energy imbalance.
By Gergana Gyuleva @ethz.ch
By Gergana Gyuleva @ethz.ch
"In this study, we integrate agricultural management and productivity information from REMIND-MAgPIE into LPJmL to assess its relevance for projections of future land-use change emissions."
By Jens Heinke @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
By Jens Heinke @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
October 8, 2025 at 8:48 AM
"In this study, we integrate agricultural management and productivity information from REMIND-MAgPIE into LPJmL to assess its relevance for projections of future land-use change emissions."
By Jens Heinke @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
By Jens Heinke @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
"These large diffs. stemming from a single(..)source of uncertainty highlight risk of relying on negative land use change emissions to achieve climate targets, but also challenges on communicating relevant uncertainties across IAM-ESM model. communities"
By Gabriel Abrahão @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
By Gabriel Abrahão @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
October 8, 2025 at 8:48 AM
"These large diffs. stemming from a single(..)source of uncertainty highlight risk of relying on negative land use change emissions to achieve climate targets, but also challenges on communicating relevant uncertainties across IAM-ESM model. communities"
By Gabriel Abrahão @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
By Gabriel Abrahão @pik-potsdam.bsky.social
"Simplified climate–carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations"
By Victor Brovkin, from MPI-M
"May be nature is more non-linear than our models?"
By Victor Brovkin, from MPI-M
"May be nature is more non-linear than our models?"
October 8, 2025 at 8:48 AM
"Simplified climate–carbon dynamics in idealized flat10MIP simulations"
By Victor Brovkin, from MPI-M
"May be nature is more non-linear than our models?"
By Victor Brovkin, from MPI-M
"May be nature is more non-linear than our models?"