US bet: Ai, China bet: Green
“In 2024, the country invested an estimated $940bn in clean-energy capex, broadly defined as renewables, electricity grids and energy storage (batteries), dwarfing its AI investments” ft.com/content/1258...
Presented basically this argmnt last wk @basakkus.bsky.social

That was a long thread. Two things

When we get to zero emissions, concentration declines bsky.app/profile/glen...

Plants love CO2, but they don't love changing T so much
bsky.app/profile/glen...

And see Figure 12, below, CO2 effect top, T effect bottom essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

South America and Africa are experiencing huge forest losses because of expanding population, agriculture and use of firewood.
AFAIK South-east Asia has turned from carbon losses to gains mainly because of China./2

To clarify; forests in EU and USA are a net sink of carbon as agriculture is shrinking. Canada and Russia have recently had huge natural carbon losses due to insects and fire. /1

Hey, you can't expect authorities to enforce existing laws (since 2010).
How would our society function if every law should be obeyed! #irony

Kyllä, jos lupaa 10% tuottoa, 5 % sijaan, niin rahaa löytyy. Kun aurinko- ja tuulivoimainvestoinneissa sähkön hinta riippuu kuoletuksidta, niin samalla myytävän sähkön hinta tuplaantuu.

The point I am trying to make i:
Why are we stuck in details and ask if the reductions in fossils are enough while
Many countries increse their fossil emissions by more than 3% per year.
IMHO we should start asking why they can act irresponsibly.

What I am trying to say is what Paris 2015 made clear:
We can't achieve reducing fossil CO2 emissions by only Annex I countries participating.
We need every country to do something. Even a bit.
Sadly the negelcted message from COP30 was that lots of countries did not even other bother with NDCs.

Correct
But you were asking; why even if EU reduces emissions at rather brisk pace the global emissions are not reducing.
I answered that about dozen entities increase more than 50 countries reduce.
I also answered that many countries increase their fossil CO2 at very high rate.
Your shift is 10%.

IMHO, these are the countries + aviation&marine which have so far been deaf to all calls to do something.
Whether one sees the countries that have increased their actual emissions to blame or the countries that increase their emissions the highest rate can be debated.
The increasers are winning./3

There is about 50 countries that have reduced fossil emissions since 2005. There is also about 50 countries that have increased fossil emissions more than 3 % per year.
Actually without the top increasers (>100 MtCO2e, below) we would already be on our way down.
. /2

Actually Danmark has reduced emissions quite a lot.
EU Edgar tells that almost -3% per year.
EU27 is much less -1.9%/a.
As always there are doers and trailers. We are achieving slowdown of emissions increase because of doers. Because of trailers this is not enough. /1

.. but decrease 2005-2024 in fossil co2 emissions is higher than average EU, higher than Germany, higher than USA.

Is there a climate policy in countries like Indonesia, Iran, India, ... e.g. Narendra Modi recently celebrated the significant breakthrough of 1 billion tonnes of domestic coal production .
Does this imply there is an actual intent to reduce CO2?

Here are the 10 countries with the largest changes in emissions in 2024 (the last year we have data).

Essentially Asian countries, plus Russia, Saudi Arabia, & Canada.

2/

If your premise is; "we must all agree", then this is expected.
Why would fossil fuel producing countries agree on; "we will stop producing fossil fuels and our economy collapses and I as a leader will face revolt."
We all know that this is what will happen, but #selfinterest

There is more in Paasikivi memoirs. e.g. The Swedes interced in negotiations. At least Paasikivi believed that war was coming. True, many other did not. There was a "fight" of who will get the Nickel from british mines in Nothernmost Finland; Germans or Soviets. It ended with Germans.

Hah!
Me modernit konsultit käytämme tekoälyä tekeään nimenomaan yrityspäättäjille ja politiikoille lähtevät raportit.
"Chat GTP: Write 30 page recommendation on climate change migitation"