Eric Min
@ericmin.bsky.social
Associate professor of political science at UCLA (by way of Kansas, NYU, and Stanford). I use a computer to learn things about war and diplomacy.
Our article highlights a nuanced form of discrimination that balanced racism with the exigencies of winning a war. In the case of WWI, White commanders—and the society that they reflected—stripped marginalized Americans of a valuable tool to pursue equality.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Our article highlights a nuanced form of discrimination that balanced racism with the exigencies of winning a war. In the case of WWI, White commanders—and the society that they reflected—stripped marginalized Americans of a valuable tool to pursue equality.
Dying in combat is awful, yet this type of "heroic" sacrifice has historically been a way that marginalized communities have made political gains in the fight for equality. In WWI, many Black soldiers died in hospitals and after the war had ended—conditions not seen as valorous.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Dying in combat is awful, yet this type of "heroic" sacrifice has historically been a way that marginalized communities have made political gains in the fight for equality. In WWI, many Black soldiers died in hospitals and after the war had ended—conditions not seen as valorous.
Our theory lays the groundwork for a broader argument (which we hope to develop further) about how identity plays a part in shaping who dies in war, and in what conditions the answer to that question might change. We also show that such discrimination has implications on military effectiveness.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Our theory lays the groundwork for a broader argument (which we hope to develop further) about how identity plays a part in shaping who dies in war, and in what conditions the answer to that question might change. We also show that such discrimination has implications on military effectiveness.
Third, Black units received far worse support than White units. Black soldiers died of non-combat causes at higher rates than White soldiers, even holding fixed levels of combat exposure in a variety of different ways.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Third, Black units received far worse support than White units. Black soldiers died of non-combat causes at higher rates than White soldiers, even holding fixed levels of combat exposure in a variety of different ways.
Notably, Black combat units' fatality rates only outpaced White combats units' rates once the armistice was signed and returns to combat effectiveness became close to zero. After November 1918, Black combat units suffered 50% more deaths than White combat units.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Notably, Black combat units' fatality rates only outpaced White combats units' rates once the armistice was signed and returns to combat effectiveness became close to zero. After November 1918, Black combat units suffered 50% more deaths than White combat units.
The Meuse-Argonne offensive in September 1918 illustrates the effects of race on commanders' decision-making. When both White and Black units failed in a shared mission, only the Black unit was assessed as incompetent and taken out of future operations.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
The Meuse-Argonne offensive in September 1918 illustrates the effects of race on commanders' decision-making. When both White and Black units failed in a shared mission, only the Black unit was assessed as incompetent and taken out of future operations.
Second, White commanders tended to send White units to the frontlines while keeping Black soldiers back. The average White combat unit suffered four times as many causalties as the average Black combat unit.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Second, White commanders tended to send White units to the frontlines while keeping Black soldiers back. The average White combat unit suffered four times as many causalties as the average Black combat unit.
We hypothesize and find three patterns. First, Black soldiers were disproportionately assigned to support, rather than combat, roles. Black Americans represented 10% of the overall population but only made up 5% of combat positions.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
We hypothesize and find three patterns. First, Black soldiers were disproportionately assigned to support, rather than combat, roles. Black Americans represented 10% of the overall population but only made up 5% of combat positions.
At the same time, the U.S. was mired in bitter racial politics, ranging from lynchings to the surge of "scientific racism" to the Jim Crow legal regime to segregation in the military. This segregation allows us to cleanly see the effects of race on assignments and deaths.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
At the same time, the U.S. was mired in bitter racial politics, ranging from lynchings to the surge of "scientific racism" to the Jim Crow legal regime to segregation in the military. This segregation allows us to cleanly see the effects of race on assignments and deaths.
We test this argument using U.S. infantry fatality records from WWI. When the U.S. entered the war on the Western Front, the "modern system" of fighting that had developed over the years required complicated maneuvers that had high returns to combat effectiveness.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
We test this argument using U.S. infantry fatality records from WWI. When the U.S. entered the war on the Western Front, the "modern system" of fighting that had developed over the years required complicated maneuvers that had high returns to combat effectiveness.
In assignments with low returns to combat effectiveness, commanders will be more likely to use—and let die—units perceived to be less capable. When assignments have high returns, commanders will rely on—and expect more deaths from—units with high perceived returns.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
In assignments with low returns to combat effectiveness, commanders will be more likely to use—and let die—units perceived to be less capable. When assignments have high returns, commanders will rely on—and expect more deaths from—units with high perceived returns.
Due to both systemic and structural inequality that objectively shortchanged Black citizens' education and health, as well as subjective discriminatory attitudes at the individual level, we expect White commanders to perceive Black soldiers as being low in combat effectiveness.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Due to both systemic and structural inequality that objectively shortchanged Black citizens' education and health, as well as subjective discriminatory attitudes at the individual level, we expect White commanders to perceive Black soldiers as being low in combat effectiveness.
We lay out a theory that highlights two key factors: commanders' perceptions of soldiers' combat effectiveness, and returns to combat effectiveness (that is, the change in likelihood of success depending on whether the unit involved is high or low in combat effectiveness).
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
We lay out a theory that highlights two key factors: commanders' perceptions of soldiers' combat effectiveness, and returns to combat effectiveness (that is, the change in likelihood of success depending on whether the unit involved is high or low in combat effectiveness).
Many anecdotes suggest that soldiers from marginalized groups were used as "cannon fodder" during wars. Yet many other anecdotes suggest that commanders kept those soldiers away from the frontlines. Which is correct?
We argue that both are true, in specific circumstances.
We argue that both are true, in specific circumstances.
October 6, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Many anecdotes suggest that soldiers from marginalized groups were used as "cannon fodder" during wars. Yet many other anecdotes suggest that commanders kept those soldiers away from the frontlines. Which is correct?
We argue that both are true, in specific circumstances.
We argue that both are true, in specific circumstances.
Thanks so much, Aidan!
August 14, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Thanks so much, Aidan!
If you are interested in learning more about the causes and consequences of negotiations during war over the last two centuries, take a look at my book, Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict, from @cornellupress.bsky.social.
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
Words of War by Eric Min | Hardcover | Cornell University Press
In Words of War, Eric Min pulls back the curtain on when, why, and how belligerents negotiate while fighting. Of all interstate conflicts across the last two centuries, two-thirds have ended through.....
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu
August 12, 2025 at 5:35 PM
If you are interested in learning more about the causes and consequences of negotiations during war over the last two centuries, take a look at my book, Words of War: Negotiation as a Tool of Conflict, from @cornellupress.bsky.social.
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501...
Finally, no deal can overcome one key fact: Imposed peaces tend to collapse. Neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to end the war as things stand, and no deal made now has any long-term promise of being obeyed or enforced.
The Alaska talks are, at best, a major net negative. (9/9)
The Alaska talks are, at best, a major net negative. (9/9)
August 12, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Finally, no deal can overcome one key fact: Imposed peaces tend to collapse. Neither Russia nor Ukraine wants to end the war as things stand, and no deal made now has any long-term promise of being obeyed or enforced.
The Alaska talks are, at best, a major net negative. (9/9)
The Alaska talks are, at best, a major net negative. (9/9)
The Trump-Kim nuclear summits in the first term are a strong reminder of how abrupt top-level meetings are primarily theater, offer parties political legitimacy, and produce vague agreements that parties interpret as they see fit. (8/9)
August 12, 2025 at 5:30 PM
The Trump-Kim nuclear summits in the first term are a strong reminder of how abrupt top-level meetings are primarily theater, offer parties political legitimacy, and produce vague agreements that parties interpret as they see fit. (8/9)
Even if Trump and Putin announce a settlement, two major issues remain. The first is that the terms would be flimsy. Robust diplomatic agreements are products of intense bottom-up bargaining where leaders meet to finalize a negotiation—not start or produce it. (7/9)
August 12, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Even if Trump and Putin announce a settlement, two major issues remain. The first is that the terms would be flimsy. Robust diplomatic agreements are products of intense bottom-up bargaining where leaders meet to finalize a negotiation—not start or produce it. (7/9)