Eric Finnigan
@ericfinnigan.jbrec.com
Charts & data on US demographics, housing, real estate, migration, immigration, econ/finance.
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
VP Demographics Research @ John Burns Research and Consulting
📍 Boulder, CO
I get needing to analyze trends through 2020 only, given data limitations. But kind of crazy there is ZERO mention of 2021-2022 (when Sunbelt migration boomed)
November 25, 2025 at 5:23 PM
I get needing to analyze trends through 2020 only, given data limitations. But kind of crazy there is ZERO mention of 2021-2022 (when Sunbelt migration boomed)
From our pro remodeler survey:
November 18, 2025 at 1:53 PM
From our pro remodeler survey:
Oh I agree, plus older folks aging in place. Just think values are a missing variable that explains a lot of the big-ticket remodel weakness.
November 18, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Oh I agree, plus older folks aging in place. Just think values are a missing variable that explains a lot of the big-ticket remodel weakness.
More as a household sentiment driver than anything, as I see it. Flat/falling home value → bad time to invest in a home, either buying or renovating. May not be strictly true, but it's a big factor.
November 18, 2025 at 1:40 PM
More as a household sentiment driver than anything, as I see it. Flat/falling home value → bad time to invest in a home, either buying or renovating. May not be strictly true, but it's a big factor.
Need home prices to bottom first. HELOCs would be a vehicle, but stable/rising home values drive it.
November 18, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Need home prices to bottom first. HELOCs would be a vehicle, but stable/rising home values drive it.
And Henny Youngman was older than all of 'em 🤯
October 26, 2025 at 5:21 PM
And Henny Youngman was older than all of 'em 🤯
Significant because, depending who was projecting, birth rates fell after 2009 more than (almost?) everyone expected
October 23, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Significant because, depending who was projecting, birth rates fell after 2009 more than (almost?) everyone expected
NYC completing record units, but industry-wide completions are way down from last year. There is a lot of spare labor in construction right now that can move around to find work.
September 26, 2025 at 2:09 PM
NYC completing record units, but industry-wide completions are way down from last year. There is a lot of spare labor in construction right now that can move around to find work.
One of the big themes I presented for clients yesterday was households hunkering down as job security becomes primary concern. In other words, need to see a bigger price change (or better job security) to bring more buyers back.
September 19, 2025 at 3:49 PM
One of the big themes I presented for clients yesterday was households hunkering down as job security becomes primary concern. In other words, need to see a bigger price change (or better job security) to bring more buyers back.
Explains why every 3rd vehicle is a Subaru in famously right-wing Boulder, Colorado
August 26, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Explains why every 3rd vehicle is a Subaru in famously right-wing Boulder, Colorado
And the cherry on top:
August 26, 2025 at 5:08 PM
And the cherry on top:
While we're at it, I could really live without all the happy birthday emails/texts from dentists, PTs, physicians, etc.
August 26, 2025 at 5:03 PM
While we're at it, I could really live without all the happy birthday emails/texts from dentists, PTs, physicians, etc.
Reminds me of this from The Economist, each generation is also paid better than the previous at any given life stage.
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
August 17, 2025 at 3:33 PM
Reminds me of this from The Economist, each generation is also paid better than the previous at any given life stage.
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
Really shows the difference between early 30s boomer parents and the early 40s millennials.
www.economist.com/finance-and-...
All seriousness, I believe housing would have gone into its recession earlier if not for larger builders' capital efficiency (rate buydowns, land banking, labor, etc.)
August 15, 2025 at 2:04 PM
All seriousness, I believe housing would have gone into its recession earlier if not for larger builders' capital efficiency (rate buydowns, land banking, labor, etc.)
I'm reminded of the ironic Patsy line from my latest Sopranos rewatch
two men standing in front of a building with the words " it 's over for the little guy " below them
ALT: two men standing in front of a building with the words " it 's over for the little guy " below them
media.tenor.com
August 15, 2025 at 2:01 PM
I'm reminded of the ironic Patsy line from my latest Sopranos rewatch
Mainly curious (I couldn't tell from your question) if you saw the long-term chart of mobility from the CPS data, which I think speaks to your question.
CPS data is problematic in its own way but the long-term trend is mostly accurate
CPS data is problematic in its own way but the long-term trend is mostly accurate
August 15, 2025 at 1:59 PM
Mainly curious (I couldn't tell from your question) if you saw the long-term chart of mobility from the CPS data, which I think speaks to your question.
CPS data is problematic in its own way but the long-term trend is mostly accurate
CPS data is problematic in its own way but the long-term trend is mostly accurate
Did you at least skim the article?
August 15, 2025 at 1:45 PM
Did you at least skim the article?
Article: www.wsj.com/economy/amer...
Nobody’s Buying Homes, Nobody’s Switching Jobs—and America’s Mobility Is Stalling
America’s mobility is stalling, and it has economic consequences for everyone. Growing families can’t upgrade, empty-nesters can’t downsize, and when people can’t move for a job offer, they often earn...
www.wsj.com
August 15, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Article: www.wsj.com/economy/amer...