Eoghan Kelly
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eoghanly.bsky.social
Eoghan Kelly
@eoghanly.bsky.social
Politics PhD and lead of the Polling London project at Queen Mary University of London. Interested in elections and political behaviour.

Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie

@devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
Pinned
Officially a Doctor of Politics for my work looking at how devolved elections have impacted party systems in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
An IrishElections projection on the latest Ireland/Thinks
Sunday Independent poll

☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1

From irishelections.ie/general
February 1, 2026 at 11:51 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Our Projection on the latest @yougov.co.uk poll for May's Holyrood election
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
January 29, 2026 at 4:00 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Oh wow. Trump got a hand-me-down Nobel Peace Prize! Did you know:

It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.
January 16, 2026 at 2:19 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
A projection based on a remarkable @yougov.co.uk for @itvnews.bsky.social and @cardiffuni.bsky.social

🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
January 13, 2026 at 6:56 PM
It is very on-brand for Reform to announce their 2028 London Mayoral candidate before either their 2026 Senedd leader or 2026 Holyrood leader.

Priorities.

www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour in pole position to win 2028 race for London Mayor, new survey reveals
EXCLUSIVE: Sir Sadiq Khan’s party is on 32%, the Conservatives 20%, Reform 19%, the Greens 13% and Liberal Democrats 11%
www.standard.co.uk
January 9, 2026 at 1:51 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Exactly this.

Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.

Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1

Westminster had over 40.
Come for the chart of shifting party support, stay for the fury at the fact we're going to have one of the most consequential Scottish (and definitely most consequential Welsh) elections since devolution, yet the Westminster media can't stop speculating about PM Farage in 2029 long enough to care.
December 30, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
When simulated 1000x the closest constituencies are:

Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
December 21, 2025 at 11:44 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
A projection based on the latest @irishinstitute.bsky.social for the next NI Assembly election:
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
December 15, 2025 at 11:50 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
A projection on that shock @cardiffuni.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll

🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3

devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
December 17, 2025 at 9:08 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?
October 21, 2025 at 10:47 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
The UCL Constitution Unit has an excellent briefing series on UK politics that is perfect for students of all ages and levels. The latest release includes a briefing on #NorthernIreland, which I co-authored.

Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...

@conunitucl.bsky.social
October 15, 2025 at 10:29 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've launched a new way of understanding polling error in Wales.

We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.

It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.

We'll update it regularly to show changes.

👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
October 11, 2025 at 12:52 PM
We also provide seat ranges for all Unionists, Nationalists and Others to see which bloc is likely to come out ahead.

We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.

It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
October 9, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've introduced an Irish Presidential Election projection!

Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.

irishelections.ie/presidential/
September 13, 2025 at 1:48 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We've added a new Margin of Error preset to our Northern Ireland projection!

It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.

Just click it again for a different scenario.

devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
August 27, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We tested how a Single NI Unionist Party *could* do at the next election.

DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38

devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
August 16, 2025 at 9:42 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
A projection based on the Ireland Thinks poll for @independent.ie:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1

irishelections.ie/general/
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
August 3, 2025 at 11:48 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
The latest @scotvoting.bsky.social / @yougov.co.uk poll for the next Holyrood election:

🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0

devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
July 31, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Our first Nowcast:

🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2

From @irishelection.bsky.social
🗳️🇮🇪Who’s Winning? We Actually Have the Data.

We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers

👉 irishelections.ie
Irish Election Projections
Create and share your own Irish election projections. Interactive, educational, and up-to-date!
irishelections.ie
July 29, 2025 at 10:34 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
Following the announcement of 'Your Party' yesterday we've started adding them to our projection. It's not live yet but here are some early findings.

Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
July 25, 2025 at 8:39 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
💥 The Government has just published its proposals for electoral reforms

💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
July 17, 2025 at 9:43 AM
Reposted by Eoghan Kelly
We're concerned that the position of 16 year olds in NI Assembly elections in all this is unclear.

It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
July 17, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Also, whoever wrote this obviously never tried to use one to get into a pub in Enniskillen.
July 17, 2025 at 11:12 AM