Co-Founder of DevolvedElections.co.uk & IrishElections.ie
@devolvedelections.bsky.social @irishelection.bsky.social
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
Sunday Independent poll
☘️ Sinn Féin — 44 Seats
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 41
⭐ Fine Gael — 36
🟪 Social Democrats — 21
🌹 Labour — 9
🟢 Independent Ireland — 8
💬 Independent — 6
🌳 Aontú — 4
✊ PBP-S — 4
🌱 Green — 1
From irishelections.ie/general
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
➡️ Ref — 24
🌹 Lab — 17
🌱 GP — 12
🌳 Con — 9
🐤 LD — 9
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.
It would not be the first time a Nobel laureate has given his or her medal away: in 1943 Nobel Literature laureate Knut Hamsun gave his medal to Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels.
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 40
➡️ Ref — 27
🌱 GP — 15
🌹 Lab — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Priorities.
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Priorities.
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
@mileendinstitute.bsky.social
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Labour - 31%
Reform - 19%
Greens - 18%
Cons - 17%
LD - 13%
@standard.co.uk.web.brid.gy @mileendinstitute.bsky.social @savanta.bsky.social
www.standard.co.uk/news/politic...
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Scotland, Wales & NI are ridiculously underpolled.
Between late September and Late November:
- Scotland had 2 polls (1 of those was commssioned by a party)
- Wales had 1 - despite one of the most remarkable by-elections in recent history.
- NI had 1
Westminster had over 40.
Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
Dumfriesshire,
Edinburgh Central,
East Lothian Coast and Lammermuirs,
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire,
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, and,
Argyll and Bute
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland-pro...
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
☘️ SF — 25
🦁 DUP — 20
🤝 AP — 16
🔷 UUP — 10
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌹 SDLP — 6
🌱 GP — 3
✊ PBP — 2
⚫ Ind — 1
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
🌼 PC — 39
➡️ Ref — 37
🌹 Lab — 6
🌱 GP — 6
🌳 Con — 5
🐤 LD — 3
devolvedelections.co.uk/wales/
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
Read it for free here: www.ucl.ac.uk/social-histo...
@conunitucl.bsky.social
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We run the Senedd election 1000x with realistic polling errors and regionalised swings.
It tracks parties, individual seats and ideologies.
We'll update it regularly to show changes.
👉 www.devolvedelections.co.uk/wales-projects
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
We use a normal distribution of polling errors and add a bit of randomisation to constituency swings.
It means that most outcomes are sensible, but some require huge misses.
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
Enter your first preferences and play with their transfer freindliness to project a winner.
irishelections.ie/presidential/
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
It creates random votes share near the Nowcast so you can see what could happen with a normal polling miss.
Just click it again for a different scenario.
devolvedelections.co.uk/northern-ire...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
DUP + UUP + TUV: 38
A Unified Party: 38
devolvedelections.co.uk/blog/single-...
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 40
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
💬 Independent — 11
🌹 Labour — 10
🟢 Independent Ireland — 7
🌳 Aontú — 2
✊ PBP-S — 2
⚪ Other — 1
irishelections.ie/general/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🎗️ SNP — 58
🌹 Lab — 24
🌳 Con — 8
🌱 GP — 10
🐤 LD — 10
➡️ Ref — 19
🔵 Alba — 0
⚪ Other — 0
devolvedelections.co.uk/scotland/
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
We’ve launched irishelections.ie — the place where Irish election projections make sense.
📊 Real-time seat forecasts
📈 Constituency breakdowns
🤓 Politics, but with fewer opinions and more numbers
👉 irishelections.ie
🟩 Fianna Fáil — 44 Seats
☘️ Sinn Féin — 43
⭐ Fine Gael — 38
🟪 Social Democrats — 19
🌹 Labour — 11
💬 Independent — 8
🟢 Independent Ireland — 6
🌳 Aontú — 3
✊ PBP-S — 2
From @irishelection.bsky.social
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
Using ratios from some hypotheticals polls - Your Party would enter the Senedd (8 seats) and Holyrood (2) next year.
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
💬 Statement from our Chair, @alexsobel.co.uk: "Today’s proposals are a welcome step towards cleaner, fairer and more trusted elections, but one critical issue remains unresolved: the voting system itself."
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.
It's a big enough change that they should say it clearly, and a big enough omission to also say it clearly.