@emopportunities.bsky.social
EM credit & rates PM. Opportunistic management style with large expertise on restructuring stories. (no investment advice or recommendations, my own view)
🇻🇪 Venezuela: +388% return since my entry point. Trimmed 25% today. Great performance so far, still upside, but a lot of good news is now in the price, felt right to take some profit.
January 27, 2026 at 4:47 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela: +388% return since my entry point. Trimmed 25% today. Great performance so far, still upside, but a lot of good news is now in the price, felt right to take some profit.
🇺🇦 Ukraine: Sold ~15–20% of my exposure today. Nice move so far and still upside ahead, but a lot of optimism is now in the price, a good moment to start taking some profits.
January 27, 2026 at 4:42 PM
🇺🇦 Ukraine: Sold ~15–20% of my exposure today. Nice move so far and still upside ahead, but a lot of optimism is now in the price, a good moment to start taking some profits.
A bit of calm in this period of uncertainty.
Lake Geneva, this weekend.
Lake Geneva, this weekend.
January 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM
A bit of calm in this period of uncertainty.
Lake Geneva, this weekend.
Lake Geneva, this weekend.
Global EM
Since this post 4 months ago, ~75% of EMBIGD returns came from ~10% of the universe
With 80%+ hedged via CDS and 20–25% in cash & equivalents, the strategy delivered ~171% of market returns with similar volatility
Sometimes beta matters. Sometimes credit selection does
Since this post 4 months ago, ~75% of EMBIGD returns came from ~10% of the universe
With 80%+ hedged via CDS and 20–25% in cash & equivalents, the strategy delivered ~171% of market returns with similar volatility
Sometimes beta matters. Sometimes credit selection does
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
January 15, 2026 at 9:26 AM
Global EM
Since this post 4 months ago, ~75% of EMBIGD returns came from ~10% of the universe
With 80%+ hedged via CDS and 20–25% in cash & equivalents, the strategy delivered ~171% of market returns with similar volatility
Sometimes beta matters. Sometimes credit selection does
Since this post 4 months ago, ~75% of EMBIGD returns came from ~10% of the universe
With 80%+ hedged via CDS and 20–25% in cash & equivalents, the strategy delivered ~171% of market returns with similar volatility
Sometimes beta matters. Sometimes credit selection does
🇸🇳 Senegal :
Exposure closed.
Low-conviction trade; waited for the right window to exit flat on PnL (even positive with carry haha)
No drama. Sometimes risk management is the trade.
Exposure closed.
Low-conviction trade; waited for the right window to exit flat on PnL (even positive with carry haha)
No drama. Sometimes risk management is the trade.
🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
January 12, 2026 at 11:08 AM
🇸🇳 Senegal :
Exposure closed.
Low-conviction trade; waited for the right window to exit flat on PnL (even positive with carry haha)
No drama. Sometimes risk management is the trade.
Exposure closed.
Low-conviction trade; waited for the right window to exit flat on PnL (even positive with carry haha)
No drama. Sometimes risk management is the trade.
Global EM:
Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.
Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.
January 9, 2026 at 8:31 AM
Global EM:
Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.
Geopolitical risk at multi-year highs, Japan rates under stress, political interference in Fed policy…
Tail-risk probability has rarely been this elevated.
I’m still very surprised by current valuations on equity or credit spreads.
🇻🇪 Venezuela : should be a good news for my biggest conviction.
January 3, 2026 at 3:31 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela : should be a good news for my biggest conviction.
Global EM: Markets remain range-bound. Focus on carry (local/HY) within a barbell framework, with meaningful CDS protection (happy to pay). Core convictions unchanged: Ukraine, Venezuela, Angola (loan). Senegal currently ~20% loaded, waiting for better entry levels to add.
a dog is laying on top of an office chair with the words `` so bored '' written below it .
ALT: a dog is laying on top of an office chair with the words `` so bored '' written below it .
media.tenor.com
December 16, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Global EM: Markets remain range-bound. Focus on carry (local/HY) within a barbell framework, with meaningful CDS protection (happy to pay). Core convictions unchanged: Ukraine, Venezuela, Angola (loan). Senegal currently ~20% loaded, waiting for better entry levels to add.
🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
November 14, 2025 at 9:22 AM
🇸🇳 Senegal : *IMF, WORLD BANK WORKING ON FINALIZING SENEGAL'S DEBT ANALYSIS
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
I reload a bit on Wednesday tbh. Still have decent room to add.
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
November 11, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Global EM :
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
Two proprietary EM indicators (>>0 track):
• 1st = global macro risk support
• 2nd = EM-specific risk sentiment
Interesting divergence: EM risk appetite still well above danger zone, while global macro support for EM just dropped sharply.
Python if people asked
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
November 7, 2025 at 9:57 AM
🇸🇳 Sénégal : after being out of the name for long time. Just started to build a position this morning benefiting from volatility. Not a high conviction trade but some good willingness supporting by an IMF open minded. Sizing matters.
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
October 27, 2025 at 6:20 AM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Here we go. Should be a great day for Argentina holder 😀
IMF takeaways : cautious but a mood of hope with no euphoria. Everyone know about poor valuation but need to sell asset class to survive.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
October 20, 2025 at 10:41 AM
IMF takeaways : cautious but a mood of hope with no euphoria. Everyone know about poor valuation but need to sell asset class to survive.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
Still don’t like Senegal, though an SLA looks possible. Venezuela still comfortable with.
IMF meetings start today. Let’s see if anything truly insightful comes out of them.
October 14, 2025 at 1:14 PM
IMF meetings start today. Let’s see if anything truly insightful comes out of them.
Tbh, corporate investors crack me up:
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
September 29, 2025 at 8:30 AM
Tbh, corporate investors crack me up:
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
• “Corps are more resilient” → nah, just illiquid
• “They lag because of the sovereign cap”
• “They blow up because gov interference”
Sounds like my 6-year-old searching for excuses 😂
🇦🇷 Argentina : Buenos holders looking Argentina bonds
a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here "
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is asking " what 's going on here "
media.tenor.com
September 24, 2025 at 12:33 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Buenos holders looking Argentina bonds
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
September 22, 2025 at 1:31 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina : Some good news coming from US. Bonds are up 7pts.
🇦🇷 Argentina: Added a second tranche at 48.4 on this latest leg lower, still capacity to increase.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
September 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM
🇦🇷 Argentina: Added a second tranche at 48.4 on this latest leg lower, still capacity to increase.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
Interesting how the market eagerly chased every 0.5pt dip around 70, yet is now just as eager to unload at any price.
All my PM colleagues (€IG as €HY) panic over France slipping from AA- to A+, while I’m chilling on a comfy B- cushion. Different leagues of stress.
a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air
ALT: a man in a suit and tie is sitting in a chair with his hands in the air
media.tenor.com
September 16, 2025 at 10:41 AM
All my PM colleagues (€IG as €HY) panic over France slipping from AA- to A+, while I’m chilling on a comfy B- cushion. Different leagues of stress.
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
September 15, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Global EM: Total return ~10% over the past 6 months. Historically, further upside over the last 25 yrs only came after a global shock.
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
Risk/reward now feels asymmetric, time to reduce risk or to be selective.
TTR by region (25 yrs):
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
September 12, 2025 at 2:24 PM
🇹🇳 Tunisia – Big day for this credit. Been long since the early lows, riding the whole curve: 23s, 24s, 26s and finally the 31s starting around 55 cts.
🥳
🥳
🇨🇴 Colombia: +17% since then.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
🇨🇴 Colombia : Yes deficit, yes politics but :
- It’s already priced in as we are trading as a B+/BB- so who cares?
- 8.7% yield on the LE (decent buffer) + one of the last wide spread
- Market positioning is ok (even if a bit OW)
- No big wall of maturity coming (€/$)
- It’s already priced in as we are trading as a B+/BB- so who cares?
- 8.7% yield on the LE (decent buffer) + one of the last wide spread
- Market positioning is ok (even if a bit OW)
- No big wall of maturity coming (€/$)
September 10, 2025 at 2:59 PM
🇨🇴 Colombia: +17% since then.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
Today’s €4.1bn 3-part deal reportedly drew ~€22bn demand. Liability mgmt well timed, but with spreads now ~325bp, valuation no longer looks cheap.
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
September 8, 2025 at 10:53 AM
🇦🇷 Argentina: sharp wake-up for bondholders. I cut most of my exposure Friday on positioning & risk/reward (still have a bit of Buenos). Bonds opened -6pts, so I picked up Arg 35s at 56.2 (still have lot of room to add). Good luck to everyone
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
August 20, 2025 at 7:55 PM
🇻🇪 Venezuela: A bit of newsflow as pressure is rising on Venezuela and Maduro.
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
August 20, 2025 at 9:51 AM
EM Global : EM sov spreads outperforms corpo ones <> DM
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.
2004–07: Sovereigns outperformed on the commodity boom
2010–22: Deficits hurt sovereigns
Since 2022: Fiscal repair + CB credibility = sov tightening cycle
EM sovereigns spreads should continue to outperform corporates.