eric gonzalez juenke
@egojunk.bsky.social
Personal account. I study and teach racial and ethnic politics for work. Re-posting election twitter stuff. https://goodauthority.org/people/eric-gonzalez-juenke/
The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality https://bit.ly/4cZUG9A
The Presidency and Immigration Policy: Rhetoric and Reality https://bit.ly/4cZUG9A
My Canadian family loves me and wants me to be happy.
November 27, 2025 at 12:19 AM
My Canadian family loves me and wants me to be happy.
Three books that heavily influenced my understanding of politics at a young age. What other texts would you recommend students read that are kind of outside of the usual suspects?
November 26, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Three books that heavily influenced my understanding of politics at a young age. What other texts would you recommend students read that are kind of outside of the usual suspects?
Trump underwater with all adults, even in many red states. This includes non voting adults, who deeply disapprove. They might be unimportant, but they might give us hints about marginal voters next year and who decides to stay home. www.economist.com/interactive/...
November 26, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Trump underwater with all adults, even in many red states. This includes non voting adults, who deeply disapprove. They might be unimportant, but they might give us hints about marginal voters next year and who decides to stay home. www.economist.com/interactive/...
Was at the bar with my 12 yo watching this and he is now also infected with the Cowboys virus. Sorry son.
November 24, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Was at the bar with my 12 yo watching this and he is now also infected with the Cowboys virus. Sorry son.
No one gets Lucy'd with the football more than college sports teams get Lucy'd with the football. "Surely THIS won't end in an embarrassing buyout."
November 22, 2025 at 2:30 PM
No one gets Lucy'd with the football more than college sports teams get Lucy'd with the football. "Surely THIS won't end in an embarrassing buyout."
Not sure if this is a meaningful signal but it sure is interesting. Losing this Trump +22, Cook +10 R seat would be a screaming alarm for the GOP. Dec. 1 special election.
November 21, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Not sure if this is a meaningful signal but it sure is interesting. Losing this Trump +22, Cook +10 R seat would be a screaming alarm for the GOP. Dec. 1 special election.
November 21, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Still think there is a much simpler and funnier answer to this question. www.politico.com/news/magazin...
November 21, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Still think there is a much simpler and funnier answer to this question. www.politico.com/news/magazin...
November 20, 2025 at 12:09 AM
Would be a five alarm fire for the GOP. Dem Behn trading at 12% right jut now.
November 19, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Would be a five alarm fire for the GOP. Dem Behn trading at 12% right jut now.
It's a version of the "bully lie." The fact that no one stood up for her/the press or reacted to it is a big part of this anger. www.thisamericanlife.org/855/transcript
November 19, 2025 at 12:36 PM
It's a version of the "bully lie." The fact that no one stood up for her/the press or reacted to it is a big part of this anger. www.thisamericanlife.org/855/transcript
“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.” www.npr.org/2025/11/19/n...
November 19, 2025 at 11:53 AM
“You’re gonna need a bigger boat.” www.npr.org/2025/11/19/n...
I’m ready to be hurt again. Let’s go.
November 17, 2025 at 10:52 PM
I’m ready to be hurt again. Let’s go.
2018’s Blue Wave was Dems +8 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
November 17, 2025 at 10:03 PM
2018’s Blue Wave was Dems +8 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
November 17, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Canaries in coal mines.
November 17, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Canaries in coal mines.
Yep. Parties overreact to much bigger currents driving elections. It makes sense but it doesn’t make it useful.
November 16, 2025 at 9:33 PM
Yep. Parties overreact to much bigger currents driving elections. It makes sense but it doesn’t make it useful.
I feel like Jameis is just going to win the game tomorrow. Just with his weirdness. Feel like I could be his best friend if he’d let me.
November 15, 2025 at 11:56 PM
I feel like Jameis is just going to win the game tomorrow. Just with his weirdness. Feel like I could be his best friend if he’d let me.
A simple illustrative (hypothetical) example. You can focus on the 2-party change (small) and miss the 3-party change (big), all being driven by differential unaffiliated turnout declines.
November 15, 2025 at 6:49 PM
A simple illustrative (hypothetical) example. You can focus on the 2-party change (small) and miss the 3-party change (big), all being driven by differential unaffiliated turnout declines.
...which they probably did, unaffiliated stayed home at 2x the rate of partisans in 2025 in county data we have, you don't need Trump voters to change their votes (~95% Trump voters didn't). They just need to stay home. Ignoring UA turnout is prob. skewing these analyses. Need to wait for more data.
November 15, 2025 at 3:59 PM
...which they probably did, unaffiliated stayed home at 2x the rate of partisans in 2025 in county data we have, you don't need Trump voters to change their votes (~95% Trump voters didn't). They just need to stay home. Ignoring UA turnout is prob. skewing these analyses. Need to wait for more data.
This is solid work and people should read it. I also think they are underestimating compositional effects by focusing on 2-party changes in NJ, and not on the other 1/3 of the electorate that is "unaffiliated." If Trump unaffiliateds disproportionately stayed home... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...
November 15, 2025 at 3:59 PM
This is solid work and people should read it. I also think they are underestimating compositional effects by focusing on 2-party changes in NJ, and not on the other 1/3 of the electorate that is "unaffiliated." If Trump unaffiliateds disproportionately stayed home... www.nytimes.com/2025/11/15/u...