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@ealluia.bsky.social
This is of course a little disorienting if you don't do this, because no one admits to thinking like this and they all act as though they're engaged in rational analysis of arguments. You just got to pay attention to signs that people are faking it.
November 25, 2025 at 3:44 PM
This is of course a little disorienting if you don't do this, because no one admits to thinking like this and they all act as though they're engaged in rational analysis of arguments. You just got to pay attention to signs that people are faking it.
I think it's mostly confirmation bias, yes. So long as an argument has superficial signs of rigor and comes to a conclusion that rings true in the service a point someone wants to make, you get people uncritically accepting it.
November 25, 2025 at 3:42 PM
I think it's mostly confirmation bias, yes. So long as an argument has superficial signs of rigor and comes to a conclusion that rings true in the service a point someone wants to make, you get people uncritically accepting it.
Parents were getting regular deposits in their checking account. It polled slightly underwater and the public was apathetic when it was killed. Right-wing / centrist media punditry had an alliance of opposition, so that probably didn't help.
November 25, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Parents were getting regular deposits in their checking account. It polled slightly underwater and the public was apathetic when it was killed. Right-wing / centrist media punditry had an alliance of opposition, so that probably didn't help.
For sure. I have no problem holding Trump to account for this ridiculous lies, and the fact that they were obvious lies when he told them should not give him a pass. I just think that should be distinct from overselling how bad conditions actually are (at least until they get that bad).
November 25, 2025 at 2:59 PM
For sure. I have no problem holding Trump to account for this ridiculous lies, and the fact that they were obvious lies when he told them should not give him a pass. I just think that should be distinct from overselling how bad conditions actually are (at least until they get that bad).
Worth noting the person Will is responding to there that is citing this article is a reporter at CNBC. I think it's correct that this happens because people have a conclusion in mind and they are biased towards arguments that appear to support that conclusion, but I don't this is about herself here.
November 25, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Worth noting the person Will is responding to there that is citing this article is a reporter at CNBC. I think it's correct that this happens because people have a conclusion in mind and they are biased towards arguments that appear to support that conclusion, but I don't this is about herself here.
That all said, I agree with you that the media environment is probably the real ball game on all of this and any tectonic demographic changes you want to see run through it. But before that, it's easier to hijack partisan cueing than it is partisan identity.
November 25, 2025 at 2:49 PM
That all said, I agree with you that the media environment is probably the real ball game on all of this and any tectonic demographic changes you want to see run through it. But before that, it's easier to hijack partisan cueing than it is partisan identity.
Partisan identity is the tectonic plates of American politics, and even in a favorable environment, it'd take awhile for a demographic shift to work its way through. The shift of the educated into the Democratic party took 40 years. We've got much more immediate problems.
November 25, 2025 at 2:48 PM
Partisan identity is the tectonic plates of American politics, and even in a favorable environment, it'd take awhile for a demographic shift to work its way through. The shift of the educated into the Democratic party took 40 years. We've got much more immediate problems.
Thinking you can win elections by pressing these little buttons is a mistake, and knowing that is a mistake is freeing because freedom from that is freedom to do the right thing.
November 25, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Thinking you can win elections by pressing these little buttons is a mistake, and knowing that is a mistake is freeing because freedom from that is freedom to do the right thing.
Oh, I agree. I generally think election outcomes are disconnected from policy minutia like this and politicians should just do what's right on the merits for issues like this and defend their actions as best they can as needed.
November 25, 2025 at 2:43 PM
Oh, I agree. I generally think election outcomes are disconnected from policy minutia like this and politicians should just do what's right on the merits for issues like this and defend their actions as best they can as needed.
If you redefine the poverty line to mean "the average amount of money people are spending on major expenses" then yes, a lot of people will be in poverty because your definition demands it.
November 25, 2025 at 2:41 PM
If you redefine the poverty line to mean "the average amount of money people are spending on major expenses" then yes, a lot of people will be in poverty because your definition demands it.
You never know until it happens, but unless that program was done by a figure beloved and reflexively defended in leftwing spaces (basically Bernie), I'm guessing versions of the high fiving a drowning person meme would be the overwhelming reaction in that corner of media.
November 25, 2025 at 2:34 PM
You never know until it happens, but unless that program was done by a figure beloved and reflexively defended in leftwing spaces (basically Bernie), I'm guessing versions of the high fiving a drowning person meme would be the overwhelming reaction in that corner of media.
I think a $100 card would be covered in right wing media as a contemptuous attempt to bribe the public in a way that shows no respect for them and I think there'd be a high risk of more leftwing spaces spreading messages that this is throwing pennies at people's feet.
November 25, 2025 at 2:31 PM
I think a $100 card would be covered in right wing media as a contemptuous attempt to bribe the public in a way that shows no respect for them and I think there'd be a high risk of more leftwing spaces spreading messages that this is throwing pennies at people's feet.
Thinking politicians should not be corrupt and should be trustworthy is both a good instinct and represents having a set of values that extends beyond a penny in a bank account. But the casual relationship with accurate information in its proper context does leave that vulnerable to manipulation.
November 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Thinking politicians should not be corrupt and should be trustworthy is both a good instinct and represents having a set of values that extends beyond a penny in a bank account. But the casual relationship with accurate information in its proper context does leave that vulnerable to manipulation.
Swing voters as a group are wildly ignorant, but they also have beliefs and values that extend beyond "Ooooh. 100 dollar gift card!" They might, for instance, get really worried that Hillary Clinton is corrupt and untrustworthy and vote for *Donald Trump* because of "many people are sayin'..."
November 25, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Swing voters as a group are wildly ignorant, but they also have beliefs and values that extend beyond "Ooooh. 100 dollar gift card!" They might, for instance, get really worried that Hillary Clinton is corrupt and untrustworthy and vote for *Donald Trump* because of "many people are sayin'..."
You have a habit of linking papers that you appear to have skimmed because you like the conclusions and don't actually understand. This is also something you probably should recall. Anyway, have a nice day.
November 25, 2025 at 2:12 PM
You have a habit of linking papers that you appear to have skimmed because you like the conclusions and don't actually understand. This is also something you probably should recall. Anyway, have a nice day.
You've linked it before. Do you recall?
November 25, 2025 at 2:07 PM
You've linked it before. Do you recall?
Did you read this paper? I know you like it because it is also a polemic in favor of conclusions you like, but does it bother you that a good portion of it is dedicated to defending an earlier paper of theirs where they make specific claims that the forward progress of time decisively refuted?
November 25, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Did you read this paper? I know you like it because it is also a polemic in favor of conclusions you like, but does it bother you that a good portion of it is dedicated to defending an earlier paper of theirs where they make specific claims that the forward progress of time decisively refuted?
Hey, check out this paper scientifically proving that inflation will be persistent because of a structural reshaping of the economy that blunts Fed tools.
(Spoiler: Inflation went down in the exact way they were scoffing at.)
(Spoiler: Inflation went down in the exact way they were scoffing at.)
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Hey, check out this paper scientifically proving that inflation will be persistent because of a structural reshaping of the economy that blunts Fed tools.
(Spoiler: Inflation went down in the exact way they were scoffing at.)
(Spoiler: Inflation went down in the exact way they were scoffing at.)
This paper makes a bunch of discrete near-term predictions from the vantage of early 2024, particularly about the persistence of inflation and Fed policy, and they're wrong? I think you like it because it takes a unusual, contrarian view of real wage growth and has graphs, but that's odd.
November 25, 2025 at 1:57 PM
This paper makes a bunch of discrete near-term predictions from the vantage of early 2024, particularly about the persistence of inflation and Fed policy, and they're wrong? I think you like it because it takes a unusual, contrarian view of real wage growth and has graphs, but that's odd.
I also get this sense that there is a wave of people just eagerly awaiting for a true recession to hit to be able to say, "I told you so" about economic despair they've been talking about for years even though a future state of suffering doesn't prove anything about the past.
November 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM
I also get this sense that there is a wave of people just eagerly awaiting for a true recession to hit to be able to say, "I told you so" about economic despair they've been talking about for years even though a future state of suffering doesn't prove anything about the past.
So if you ask me how I feel about Trump and the economy, the answer is not awesome. If you ask me how I think things are trending, I also do not have positive things to say. But if you ask me to agree that Americans are now scraping by for crumbs, well, that isn't true.
November 25, 2025 at 1:38 PM
So if you ask me how I feel about Trump and the economy, the answer is not awesome. If you ask me how I think things are trending, I also do not have positive things to say. But if you ask me to agree that Americans are now scraping by for crumbs, well, that isn't true.
I think there's a correct version of this where Trump is directly making the economy worse than it otherwise would be and the drags he's introducing elevate the risk of downward spiral, but at the same time the stories acting as though a catastrophic collapse has happened aren't true.
November 25, 2025 at 1:36 PM
I think there's a correct version of this where Trump is directly making the economy worse than it otherwise would be and the drags he's introducing elevate the risk of downward spiral, but at the same time the stories acting as though a catastrophic collapse has happened aren't true.
I remember when the OG Four Loko debuted and a friend of my college roommate's got some. I remember him excitedly talking it up at our place before going out. I don't know what happened exactly, but I do know it ended with him being tazed by the cops and needing dental surgery.
November 25, 2025 at 1:55 AM
I remember when the OG Four Loko debuted and a friend of my college roommate's got some. I remember him excitedly talking it up at our place before going out. I don't know what happened exactly, but I do know it ended with him being tazed by the cops and needing dental surgery.
The central gimmick of Ravnica - it's "thing" - is every color combination is basically evil in a way that feels true to that color combination. I know the setting's popularity eventually watered that down a bit, but I think you risk encroaching on that territory with this approach.
November 24, 2025 at 6:41 PM
The central gimmick of Ravnica - it's "thing" - is every color combination is basically evil in a way that feels true to that color combination. I know the setting's popularity eventually watered that down a bit, but I think you risk encroaching on that territory with this approach.
Regardless of what you'd *like* people to use the term to mean, I'm sure you're aware that most people would find it bizarre to call a hot dog cart owner running on thin margins not working class, but financial consultants employed by a firm making millions of dollars a year working class.
November 24, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Regardless of what you'd *like* people to use the term to mean, I'm sure you're aware that most people would find it bizarre to call a hot dog cart owner running on thin margins not working class, but financial consultants employed by a firm making millions of dollars a year working class.