Max, I agree with much of what you have written. But Carney negotiated in good faith. He has removed plenty of impediments, and is thus providing an opportunity for Smith and the oil sector to prove that it can get a pipeline built.

And Danielle Smith - who despises Guilbeault and regularly criticized him with overheated rhetoric - is probably smiling even bigger than when she signed the MOU. 4/4

However, if more Liberal MPs follow Guilbeault's lead (possibly other Quebec or BC ones) that would be very damaging to Carney. 3/4

I also suspect that Carney knew that was a possibility and obviously took a cost/benefit analysis and believed that the MOU was more important than Guilbeault in cabinet. Carney might even have been happy to see him leave. 2/4

Price of oil was low from Fall 2014 to Spring 2022. This included Prentice, Notley, and Kenney. But only Notley takes the blame for budget deficits due to low oil prices.

CAPP is obviously pro-oil (like Pathways), but are not separatists. It is the Alberta separatists (and Pierre Poilievre) who are trashing the MOU.

There is a lot more in this MOU than just pipelines, emissions cap, and CCUS. There are also commitments on electricity inter-ties between BC-AB-SK-MB, nuclear energy, data centres, etc.

This is my analysis on the MOU that I published yesterday. duanebratt.substack.com/p/the-grand-...

I am surprised that Carney did not join Smith in the announcement. Carney is speaking to the Calgary Chamber of Commerce later today. But I would have thought it would be a joint Carney-Smith press conference.