Brandon Valeriano, PhD
@drbvaler.bsky.social
Cyber, K-pop, and video games for research
Seton Hall, School of Diplomacy
Royal Danish Defence College
Cyberspace Solarium 2.0
Marine Corps University
Seton Hall, School of Diplomacy
Royal Danish Defence College
Cyberspace Solarium 2.0
Marine Corps University
The astounding thing about prominent IR voices is how often they are consistently wrong, and never pay the price for their very public failures, instead doubling down each time.
35 or so years ago John Mearsheimer confidently predicted a nuclear-armed Germany. He’s spent the last decade doing his damndest to bring about the world in which he’s proven right.
March 19, 2025 at 9:32 PM
The astounding thing about prominent IR voices is how often they are consistently wrong, and never pay the price for their very public failures, instead doubling down each time.
Neat new Generative AI paper by Jensen and his team, looks great
"All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom."
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.06263
"All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom."
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.06263
arxiv.org
March 14, 2025 at 5:01 PM
Neat new Generative AI paper by Jensen and his team, looks great
"All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom."
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.06263
"All models exhibit some degree of country-specific biases, often recommending less escalatory and interventionist actions for China and Russia compared to the United States and the United Kingdom."
arxiv.org/pdf/2503.06263
DoD Minerva grant on space/cyberspace nexus canceled. What is worse is how they did it, for a minute there we thought it might survive but instead they were just going down the list slowly...
March 7, 2025 at 12:11 AM
DoD Minerva grant on space/cyberspace nexus canceled. What is worse is how they did it, for a minute there we thought it might survive but instead they were just going down the list slowly...
Incredible headline but the hubris to say this when EW jamming has forced a shift to fiber which now leads to new shifts (cutting drones, new optical sights, universal fiber platforms)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
Drones Now Rule the Battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia War
Drones have changed the war in Ukraine, with soldiers adapting off-the-shelf models and swarming the front lines.
www.nytimes.com
March 3, 2025 at 11:26 PM
Incredible headline but the hubris to say this when EW jamming has forced a shift to fiber which now leads to new shifts (cutting drones, new optical sights, universal fiber platforms)
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
www.nytimes.com/interactive/...
We officially have a know-nothing team working cyber. There is no offense/defense in cyber and you don't let your guard down while trying to poke the enemy - even Jake Paul knows that...
I can confirm Politico's reporting on the Trump NSC's cyber team: Bulazel, Goldman, Work, and Brose, with a clear theme of embracing a more confrontational approach to cyber operations against adversaries. www.politico.com/newsletters/...
March 3, 2025 at 7:56 PM
We officially have a know-nothing team working cyber. There is no offense/defense in cyber and you don't let your guard down while trying to poke the enemy - even Jake Paul knows that...
Guess I should react but this is obviously grossly horrific. The thing that gets me is the idea we cut off offensive operations, offense/defense language is inadequate in cyber and most troubling is stopping basic monitoring of malware and ransomware.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/u...
Hegseth Orders Pentagon to Stop Offensive Cyberoperations Against Russia
The defense secretary’s instructions, which were given before President Trump’s blowup with the Ukrainian president, are apparently part of an effort to draw Russia into talks on the war.
www.nytimes.com
March 3, 2025 at 4:45 PM
Guess I should react but this is obviously grossly horrific. The thing that gets me is the idea we cut off offensive operations, offense/defense language is inadequate in cyber and most troubling is stopping basic monitoring of malware and ransomware.
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/u...
As academics have been saying for nearly a decade, cyber is a poor tool for coercion (Borghard and Lonergan 2017, Valeriano et al 2018) and useless to hold territory. Bigger question is why policymakers were convinced by hype beats and snake oil salesmen.
"You can’t conquer a country with cyber otherwise the Russians would have done it."
@ciaranm.bsky.social speaks to Sofia Villegas www.holyrood.com/news/view,ci... @holyroodconnect.bsky.social
@ciaranm.bsky.social speaks to Sofia Villegas www.holyrood.com/news/view,ci... @holyroodconnect.bsky.social
Ciaran Martin: Nobody plays politics with cyber
Having been at the helm of the UK’s cyber defences, Ciaran Martin talks about navigating a world increasingly shaped by ...
www.holyrood.com
February 26, 2025 at 7:52 PM
As academics have been saying for nearly a decade, cyber is a poor tool for coercion (Borghard and Lonergan 2017, Valeriano et al 2018) and useless to hold territory. Bigger question is why policymakers were convinced by hype beats and snake oil salesmen.
Impressive to lose Canada, France (probably gone before this), and Germany in one month.
1. Background to the epochal change in German and European politics after the election. Merz, the presumed next Chancellor has said that Europe is setting out to "achieve its independence from the US, step by step." @abenewman.bsky.social and I explain the background in our book, Underground Empire
Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy
Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy [Farrell, Henry, Newman, Abraham] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World Economy
www.amazon.com
February 23, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Impressive to lose Canada, France (probably gone before this), and Germany in one month.
Sure looks like my battle buddy and coauthor Ben Jensen
February 20, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Sure looks like my battle buddy and coauthor Ben Jensen
I think we need to go back to calling people imposters because the entire Executive branch thinks they can solve the country's problems by treating it like a startup.
February 16, 2025 at 8:13 PM
I think we need to go back to calling people imposters because the entire Executive branch thinks they can solve the country's problems by treating it like a startup.
Been stuck in #Civ7 and its nice to be reminded that I once wrote a very personal piece about wargaming and Civilization 6.
thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2....
thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2....
#Reviewing Sid Meier’s! Lessons in Game Design: Civilization and Wargames
Constructing open worlds and the freedom to develop innovative strategies that incubate strategic minds or threaten authoritarian societies are the unexplored frontiers. The lessons in game design tha...
thestrategybridge.org
February 15, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Been stuck in #Civ7 and its nice to be reminded that I once wrote a very personal piece about wargaming and Civilization 6.
thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2....
thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2....
This is a horrific, for one it provides no solutions offering instead do things faster. It adds, we can go lighter w drones buying into the hype of revolutionary technologies when on the battlefield they have gone wired within a period of about 3 months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/o...
Opinion | Reimagining the American War Machine
The biggest challenge for any peacetime military is preparing for the next war.
www.nytimes.com
February 15, 2025 at 10:06 PM
This is a horrific, for one it provides no solutions offering instead do things faster. It adds, we can go lighter w drones buying into the hype of revolutionary technologies when on the battlefield they have gone wired within a period of about 3 months.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/07/o...
The world is burning and I need to post more Kpop memes. Two meetings, a class to prep, and a Champions League game to watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nGX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nGX...
Coca Cola 🔋 MOMO
YouTube video by bbakkebb
www.youtube.com
February 12, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The world is burning and I need to post more Kpop memes. Two meetings, a class to prep, and a Champions League game to watch
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nGX...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nGX...
I reject the acronym DEI because it removes context and agency from the platform, eliminating the meaning of the program in favor of some anspectic term.
"[For the Right], D.E.I...is the mere presence of a woman or nonwhite person or disabled or transgender person in any high-skilled, high-status position. And their alternative isn’t some heretofore unknown standard of merit; it is the reintroduction of something like segregation."
(gift link)
(gift link)
Opinion | Trump’s War on D.E.I. Is Really a War on Civil Rights
The genius of the right-wing crusade against D.E.I. is that the term is amorphous enough that it can mean many different things to many different people.
www.nytimes.com
February 12, 2025 at 8:03 PM
I reject the acronym DEI because it removes context and agency from the platform, eliminating the meaning of the program in favor of some anspectic term.
Academics need to stop applying fancy words to what is outright chaos and destruction. This is not normal, its an outlier, and its malicious.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/pres...
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/pres...
President Trump’s Campaign of ‘Structural Deregulation’
The administration’s aggressive approach aims to compromise the capacity of the federal government to fulfill its core functions.
www.lawfaremedia.org
February 12, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Academics need to stop applying fancy words to what is outright chaos and destruction. This is not normal, its an outlier, and its malicious.
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/pres...
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/pres...
Good news, the NCD lives! I thought it might be slowly eliminated along with other cuts. Bad news, our new national cyber director appears to have zero cyber security background so its open season for the sham/scams in cyber security policy - per usual.
www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
Trump to nominate Sean Cairncross as national cyber director
Cairncross is a former top official at the RNC and previously led a federal foreign aid agency during the first Trump administration.
www.politico.com
February 12, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Good news, the NCD lives! I thought it might be slowly eliminated along with other cuts. Bad news, our new national cyber director appears to have zero cyber security background so its open season for the sham/scams in cyber security policy - per usual.
www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
www.politico.com/news/2025/02...
This is damning, but common. Orgs often downplay cyber security because it has little impact on their bottom line, but the reality is the cascading consequences for failure end up far downstream which is why the strategy of regulations, secure by design, and strong investment in the D is critical.
Musk DOGE Pick Led Cybersecurity Cuts at Citrix. Hacks Followed via @bloomberg.com - includes insights from @lutasecurity.bsky.social CEO & Founder @k8em0.bsky.social
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
Musk DOGE Pick Led Cybersecurity Cuts at Citrix. Hacks Followed
Tech CEO Tom Krause dismissed engineers and slashed expenses after the remote-work company’s leveraged buyout. His company says defenses improved. Now he’s consulting at the US Treasury.
www.bloomberg.com
February 10, 2025 at 8:46 PM
This is damning, but common. Orgs often downplay cyber security because it has little impact on their bottom line, but the reality is the cascading consequences for failure end up far downstream which is why the strategy of regulations, secure by design, and strong investment in the D is critical.
I really like this paper and its something critically important, novel tech is often not destabilizing but stabilizing.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Ceci n’est pas une nuke? The impact of emerging militarised technologies on strategic stability
Novel technologies with military applications are often implicitly viewed as significant threats to strategic stability. Yet, some implementations of emerging technologies may bolster defenses, mit...
www.tandfonline.com
February 7, 2025 at 9:05 PM
I really like this paper and its something critically important, novel tech is often not destabilizing but stabilizing.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Institutional?
The Trump Administration's list of censored scientific terms that get NSF grant proposals flagged contains "women” and “female”, but no mention of “men” or “male.” There is “black” and “indigenous” on this list, but no “white.” The only identity not censored is mine.
youtu.be/dHXbpj1Z3UU
youtu.be/dHXbpj1Z3UU
Don Beyer Speaks About Trump's NSF Censorship on the House Floor
YouTube video by Congressman Don Beyer
youtu.be
February 7, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Institutional?
Really cool position in Sports Diplomacy, don't think I have ever seen this before
jobs.chronicle.com/job/37787608...
jobs.chronicle.com/job/37787608...
CLINICAL ASSISTANT/ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, SPORTS MANAGEMENT (Sports Diplomacy) - New York City, New York (US) job with New York University School of Professional Studies | 37787608
NYUSPS seeks a Clinical Assistant/Associate Professor of Sports Management with a preferred focus on sports diplomacy and international relations.
jobs.chronicle.com
February 7, 2025 at 4:18 PM
Really cool position in Sports Diplomacy, don't think I have ever seen this before
jobs.chronicle.com/job/37787608...
jobs.chronicle.com/job/37787608...
Oh ffs, if you had a plot to destroy America from within, I don't think you can top having the guy who bungled Twitter take over FAA Information Networks...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/u...
Elon Musk Says DOGE Will Dig Into F.A.A. Technology and Make Safety Upgrades
His announcement comes after an outage last week to the primary system that provides pilots safety alerts in real time.
www.nytimes.com
February 5, 2025 at 11:38 PM
Oh ffs, if you had a plot to destroy America from within, I don't think you can top having the guy who bungled Twitter take over FAA Information Networks...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/u...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/u...
Our Hybrid book
"Experts careen from event to event, applying no analytical rigor to the core challenge of modern warfare. The lessons of decades of research on war should highlight how dangerous..failed predictions with no analytical rigor are to the community of analysts, but more so, humanity."
"Experts careen from event to event, applying no analytical rigor to the core challenge of modern warfare. The lessons of decades of research on war should highlight how dangerous..failed predictions with no analytical rigor are to the community of analysts, but more so, humanity."
January 27, 2025 at 11:22 PM
Our Hybrid book
"Experts careen from event to event, applying no analytical rigor to the core challenge of modern warfare. The lessons of decades of research on war should highlight how dangerous..failed predictions with no analytical rigor are to the community of analysts, but more so, humanity."
"Experts careen from event to event, applying no analytical rigor to the core challenge of modern warfare. The lessons of decades of research on war should highlight how dangerous..failed predictions with no analytical rigor are to the community of analysts, but more so, humanity."
This what happens when you have a failed Vanderbilt Political Science PhD in charge of the DOJ...
Shameful. The job of *career* prosecutors at DOJ is not "faithfully implementing the President's agenda." I hope they sue for a blatant violation of the protections afforded to career, as compared with political, government employees. www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...
January 27, 2025 at 10:57 PM
This what happens when you have a failed Vanderbilt Political Science PhD in charge of the DOJ...
The things lost early on:
50k for buying a new house
Long term elder care support
Diversity and ethics protections
All grants from the NIH, NSF, and DoD(?)
WFH (RTO) Changes to USG disrupting entire USG
Cyber Bureau at State, all review boards
Likely coordination with Denmark
College loan support
50k for buying a new house
Long term elder care support
Diversity and ethics protections
All grants from the NIH, NSF, and DoD(?)
WFH (RTO) Changes to USG disrupting entire USG
Cyber Bureau at State, all review boards
Likely coordination with Denmark
College loan support
January 27, 2025 at 9:25 PM
The things lost early on:
50k for buying a new house
Long term elder care support
Diversity and ethics protections
All grants from the NIH, NSF, and DoD(?)
WFH (RTO) Changes to USG disrupting entire USG
Cyber Bureau at State, all review boards
Likely coordination with Denmark
College loan support
50k for buying a new house
Long term elder care support
Diversity and ethics protections
All grants from the NIH, NSF, and DoD(?)
WFH (RTO) Changes to USG disrupting entire USG
Cyber Bureau at State, all review boards
Likely coordination with Denmark
College loan support
Reposted by Brandon Valeriano, PhD
I was writing about deterrence today and remembered my favourite way of explaining it
January 26, 2025 at 5:58 PM
I was writing about deterrence today and remembered my favourite way of explaining it