Douglas Fraser
douglasffraser.bsky.social
Douglas Fraser
@douglasffraser.bsky.social
BBC Scotland journalist. Human, mostly. Based on the Black Isle.
I'm new to Bluesky. This is my first thread here on economy and business related news. I used to fire out such news on another platform. Feedback welcome, particularly if it's friendly.
February 3, 2025 at 8:22 AM
How to respond? Get close and find pressure points for influence - in the administration and in Congress, while quietly preparing a programme for retaliatory tariffs.
How not to respond? 'Hey, we're over here, Mr President - please don't hit our very important and vulnerable exporters!'
February 3, 2025 at 8:20 AM
On Chinese technology, which side is he on? On regulation of big tech? On a looming battle with the Trump administration over minimum tax rates on companies with profits from different countries? On the prospect of taking control of Panama Canal or Greenland?...
February 3, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Sir Keir Starmer has said Britain should not have to choose between the EU and US. But he could well be forced to, as he tries to reset UK-EU relations, today meeting the 27 leaders at a defence-heavy summit...
February 3, 2025 at 8:13 AM
There could be upsides. If there's a high cost to trade with the US, goods may be available on the global market at a lower cost. But the downsides include the likely pressure on friends and allies to align with the USA on its foreign policy priorities, which could get uncomfortable.
February 3, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Even with no trade tariffs, UK and others open to trade will suffer consequences, including volatile markets. With a 10% tariff on Canadian oil entering the US, spot markets in oil have pushed up global prices. The US dollar is up as a safe haven and because interest rates are less likely to fall..
February 3, 2025 at 8:07 AM
Does it matter that the US runs trade deficits with other countries? It does to Donald Trump. Other countries conventionally seek to balance all their exports with all their imports, and not focus on bilateral deficits or surpluses...
February 3, 2025 at 8:02 AM
POTUS doesn't like EU barriers to US agri and food, nor the unequal approach to cars. Lots of Americans like to buy European cars, but there are barriers to US cars getting into the EU...
February 3, 2025 at 8:00 AM
That risks undermining one of America's strengths: it has a lot of friends and admirers compared with its global rivals. As that Norwegian minister said, friends expect to be treated reasonably. He said tariffs on EU imports into the US will be 'pretty soon'...
February 3, 2025 at 7:58 AM
what does it mean for the UK? Nothing yet. When asked, Trump said he likes Sir Keir Starmer, which is the personal and transactional way he sees international affairs. But he clearly doesn't mind tearing up rules and walloping close allies...
February 3, 2025 at 7:55 AM
... as we learned that they do for the UK and EU car manufacturers. If the intention is to protect US business behind the tariff barriers, many of those that export don't like the protection - they can see what retaliation will mean for US exports...
February 3, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Expectations are of a steep recession in Canada and Mexico if these tariffs go ahead (they may not, as this is clearly part of a negotiation). Exports to the US are around 20% of Canada's economy and 76% of its total exports...
February 3, 2025 at 7:50 AM
So with a boost to US inflation, meaning the Fed will use interest rates to get it back towards 2% target, plus reduced profitability in importing companies, stock markets have already started falling. More expected as Monday starts round the world...
February 3, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Tariffs: a tax on imports as they arrive at the US border and ports. They are paid by importing companies, who then pass on those costs, or some of them, to customers. Costs can also be absorbed through lower profits...
February 3, 2025 at 7:46 AM
The stated intention is to lower the smuggling into the US of synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, and he wants to pressure his neighbours on immigration flows across the border. But the clear underlying intention is to hit those who are successful at selling to Americans...
February 3, 2025 at 7:45 AM
He may love it less when he sees the likely consequences of 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and 10% on Chinese, with the promise that the EU will face something similar "pretty soon"...
February 3, 2025 at 7:43 AM