Lightnews — Scholar-powered news

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

"Many climate scientists now say that if we continue on the present course we are heading to a planet that for all practical purposes will be uninhabitable for humans within just a few decades."

Impacts are always under stated. 15 years is more likely.

www.facebook.com/share/p/14QM...

New graphs from Zach Labe show very rapid warming year over year in the polar regions. But the warming in Antarctica, though less over the same 46 year time period - at + 3.3 C (5.9 F) vs + 4.5 C (+ 8.1 F) in the Arctic - is even more concerning because of the recent massive acceleration and more severe implications for warming global climate and raising global sea levels.

The sea ice cover surrounding Antarctica is much larger and extends much further equatorward than in the Arctic. So when it disappears - and make no mistake, it will within just the next few years - there will be much more new solar radiation absorbed by the ocean instead of being almost entirely reflected by sea ice back to outer space.

Many of the glaciers in Antarctica are much more vulnerable to collapse than was thought until just recently. That’s because ocean currents are changing and warmer deep water is rising to the surface around Antarctica now. This is an entirely unforseen change in the Earth - atmosphere system.

Atmospheric river storms, unheard of in the polar regions until recently, are now causing occasional rapid glacial calving cascades and collapse there.

Antarctica is about half islands so much of the ice sheet is based below sea level - in some cases far below sea level - so melting and collapse of glaciers extending far above sea level will be much faster than was until just recently predicted.

Also, massive stores of frozen methane hydrates on the shallow sea floor around Antarctica are melting and releasing to the atmosphere at accelerating rates. Methane is 80 x stronger a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide over the first 20 years in the atmopshere. We know that massive methane releases have been associated with warming periods in Earth’s past. The warming already occurring now is faster than at any time in Earth’s history.

Don’t mess with a water planet. Warming feedbacks are delayed but they can suddenly seemingly come out of nowhere, syncronize, and amplify each other. Many climate scientists now say that if we continue on the present course we are heading to a planet that for all practical purposes will be uninhabitable for humans within just a few decades.

December 1, 2025 at 1:10 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

All good, less ice here too.

Baffin Bay sea ice extent smashes record low for the date

November 24, 2025 at 11:00 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Everything is just fine, we don't need ice on the Arctic ocean anyway.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1SvBPG...

Text is for all images

The Kara Sea in the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia on average begins to freeze over in September in the northern parts and October in the southern parts, with the entire sea usually ice-covered by December. This year it may not freeze at all.

Some of the largest stores of frozen methane hydrates in the world lie on the shallow sea floor here. The shallowest parts of the Kara Sea are in its central and southeastern regions, with over 40% of the sea being less than 50 meters (160 feet) deep.

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date in the Kara Sea are up to + 3.0 degrees C ( + 5.4 F). September saw anomalies for the date of + 6 to + 15 C (+ 10 to + 27 F). Saltwater in the ocean freezes at about - 2 degrees C (+ 28 degrees F) depending on exact salinity so the current anomalies for the date are about + 5 C (9.4 F) above the freezing point.

The Kara Sea floor has also warmed, primarily due to the influx of warmer Atlantic currents and the thawing of subsea permafrost. The sea floor in the western part of the sea has seen the most significant warming, with bottom sediments reaching temperatures up to + 5.0 C (+ 9.4 F) in some areas, which is consistent with the loss of ice-bearing permafrost at those sea floor locations.

Methane releases to the atmosphere are increasing and atmospheric values measured here are significantly above the global average. The warming power of methane in the atmosphere is about 80 times that of carbon dioxide over the first 20 years.

The South Kara Sea shelf, particularly offshore from the Yamal Peninsula, contains the largest known deposits of seafloor methane in the Kara Sea. This is an area of massive seabed methane escape, primarily due to thawing subsea permafrost, with extensive gas releases observed over an area of at least 7,500 square km in water depths greater than 20 meters, according to Phys.org and AGU Publications.

Image: Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies for the date on 23 Nove…

November 24, 2025 at 10:57 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

John is trying really hard to be optimistic here. Unfortunately the only thing we'll possibly do large scale is the stratospheric injection, which will likely just be another death nail.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1Ddknv...

Text is for both images

The problem here is Blue Ocean Events (BOEs) (less than 1 million square km of sea ice remaining) at both poles are looking increasingly likely in 2026. Arctic sea ice coverage and especially thickness has decreased significantly year to year and Antarctic sea ice is thinning rapidly now with warmer water rising from below. A Double BOE introduces unprecedentedly large non linearities into the trend. And the next El Niño adds what could this time be a quasi permanent step increase of up to about + 0.3 degree C (+ 0.5 F) if it is intense which looks increasingly likely - also in 2026.

I believe warming on the order of half a degree C in 2026 alone is a significant possibility. I hope I’m wrong because otherwise the curve will take off much more steeply and we could reach + 3 C (+ 6 F) of warming two decades earlier - in the 2030s. Once we hit + 2.5 C (+ 5 F) there is probably no stopping a rise to + 8 C (+ 14 F) or higher. + 3 C is generally thought by most climate scientists to be human extinction level warming.

On the other hand, if renewables switch out fossils as aggressively as possible and most of us go vegetarian, we stop demanding McMansions and multiple intercontinental jet trips each year, etc. AND we find and implement a large scale atmospheric carbon sequestration solution, we could bend the curve slowly down. But we have no time to waste.

If we do see on the order of a + 0.5 C rise in 2026, I think we will have no choice but to implement large scale stratospheric aerosol injection to forestall catastrophic warming. That will come with other risks to life on Earth many of which are as yet unknown.

November 24, 2025 at 11:57 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

We really should have gotten our heads out of our asses decades ago.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1BjQWu...

For both images

The Southern Hemisphere mid latitude Marine Heat Waves are intensifying rapidly as is meltwater from sea ice around Antarctica.

These are Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) FOR THE DATE and just 7 days apart so any increase is more than seasonal warming.

At this rate of far above seasonal warming we are headed to a first ever recorded Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice remaining) around Antarctica by March 2026.

An El Niño which could reach record intensity looks increasingly likely by summer 2026. A first ever recorded Arctic Blue Ocean Event looks increasingly likely by October 2026.

The rate of of g l o b a l w a r m i n g in 2026 will likely set a record by year’s end. We are in a world of trouble.

We must drive down global greenhouse gas emissions to net zero and then well below zero - post haste - or the planet will not be habitable for humans within our childrens’ lifetimes.

Image 1. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date on 21 November 2025, looking down over the South Pole

Image 2. Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date on 14 November 2025, looking down over the South Pole

Images from earth.nullschool.net

November 23, 2025 at 12:06 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

"We are heading into uncharted waters." Loosely translates to #kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1AAuhX...

Text covers all three images.
The warm Agulhas Current off the southern end of Africa is one of the most powerful boundary currents in the world. It typically flows southward along the east coast of Africa, turns west off the southern tip of Africa and then mostly doubles back on itself and turns east, only contributing a minor portion of its flow to the more southerly Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) which is 5 x larger than any other current in the world. But that isn’t happening now. Instead almost all of the Agulhas is flowing directly into the ACC.

What’s really concerning though is that the Agulhas has been running much warmer than usual - and it is usually quite warm to begin with. This massive additional heat flux into the ACC is occuring as multiple large marine heat waves are rapidly building just north of the ACC, particularly in the SW and SE South Pacific and the SE South Atlantic. Virtually the entire ACC is now significantly anomolously warm for the date. This has dire implications for increasing sea ice melt around Antarctica.

We appear to be headed toward the first ever Blue Ocean Event (less than 1 million square km of sea ice remaining) which was expected to first occur in the Arctic and by a wide margin in number of years. But it’s becoming ever more likely that a BOE will occur first in Antarctica - and we could be just 3 months away form it.

A BOE is a BFD for global climate because open ocean absorbs vastly more solar radiation than does sea ice. But whats even worse is a BOE in the Antarctic will hasten one in the Arctic. The g l o b a l w a r m i n g impacts of just an Antarctic BOE will be massive and much greater than from one in the Arctic. That’s because the sea ice around Antarctica extends much further equatorward than in the Arctic so the solar radiation is over a larger area and gets more intense sunlight. But the impacts of both will be even worse - they will be catastrophic to habitability of many species including that…

An El Niño is expected by summer according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center. El Niños can raise global average surface air temperatures by several tenths of a degree C or more. The coming one could be intense judging by the unusually warm water in place not only in the western tropical Pacific but also in other massive marine heat waves in the North Pacific centered at about 43 degrees North extending all across the North Pacific and in the SW South Pacific extending from Australia and New Zealand roughly a third of the way across the South Pacific. These MHWs will intensify the El Nino greatly. All of these MHWs are intensifying except for the North Pacific one but it is retaining much of its surface heat despite the approach of winter because the heat extends quite deep and it will warm back up again by late next spring.

We are heading into uncharted waters.

Image: current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date including + 6.3 degrees C (+ 11.3 degrees F) in the open ocean well offshore of the southern end of Africa (from earth.nullschool.net).

The blue color around Antarctica shows cooler than average for the date water because of cold melt water at the surface from both accelerating melt from Antarctic sea ice and accelerating continental glacial melt.

November 20, 2025 at 11:03 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

We got it wrong. We're a lot more fucked than anyone thought. If someone is telling you we can limit warming to 2.5C by 2100 they're lying. Or even 3C by 2050 they're hoping for something that can't likely happen.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1befsQ...

Text covers both images.

"It can’t be stated strongly enough how fast the climate feedback cascade is now ramping up. Surface air temperatures in the Arctic are now predicted to be up to + 20 degrees C (+ 36 degrees F) above the average for the date on November 17.

The month of October averaged + 5 to + 10 degrees C (+ 9 to + 18 degrees F) above average for the date across the Arctic. Last January through March (3 months running) were up to + 10 to 15 C (+ 18 to + 27 F above average across large parts of the Arctic.

Blue Ocean Events in both polar regions are becoming likely much sooner all the time and could even come in 2026. That will send the Earth into much more rapid, catastrophic warming.

Time has run out. Unless the world acts aggressively without delay to rapidly reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, the next El Nino could bring the world near + 2 C and we could see + 3 C within another 15 years. We are on course to irreversible extinction level warming even for humans. We are now past + 1.5 C (+ 2.7 F) which was predicted to take about 15 more years just 3 years ago."

November 10, 2025 at 10:51 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Although John is not outright predicting a BOE in 2026, he is certainly suggesting it's possible. Of anyone I pay attention to he's been by far the most accurate in 2025.

www.facebook.com/share/p/1CZQ...

Text is for all three images.

Last January - March surface air temperature anomalies for the date were about a colossul + 15 C (+ 27 degrees F) for 90 days running as shown in these graphs which are for 80 to 90 N latitude which had a greater anomaly than the Arctic as a whole which was closer + 10 C (+ 18 degrees F) over those 3 months.

At this rate with the huge new autumn 2025 increases shown here I think Jan - Mar 2026 surface air temperatures could average + 20 degrees C (36 degrees F) above average for the date. My guess is a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) (less than 1 M square km sea ice remaining) is likely by September 2026. A BOE is a BFD because it’s a double whammy for global climate. It decreases Earth’s albedo and allows massively more heat absorption by the even more stratified (due to ice melt) far upper ocean. I had thought a BOE would take a few years longer before seeing this new data.

Suddenly the Antarctic is also warming at a shockingly accelerating rate this year, largely due to massively increasing heat transport from the overheated North Atlantic upper ocean via the also warming Indian Ocean - associated with relatively warmer water rising from the deeper ocean to the surface causing so much sea ice melting that a BOE around Antarctica - where sea ice coverage is much greater and extends to much lower latitudes - could come as soon as March 2027.

I think there’s no question now that we began a cascade of climate feedbacks and tipping points in 2025. BOEs in both polar regions will trigger massive acceleration of global warming. And that is without taking into account the complely unexpected massive increase in methane hydrate releases from the sea floor around Antarctica discovered just two months ago.

November 3, 2025 at 10:38 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Out of any graphic, if this doesn't tell the tail then I don't know what will.

November 3, 2025 at 10:24 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Pssst, guess what, we're fucked. El nino is coming for dinner. Warming is about to kick our ass over the cliff. 2C by 2030 and 3C by 2040. All of those who ignored reality and banged on about la nina should get your heads out of your asses.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1A8NN4...

CanSIPS Multi Model Ensembles predict El Niño (positive (warm) central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly) solidly in place by May.

El Niños raise global average surface (2 m) air temperatures by up to + 0.3 C. Even larger and more persistent increases are possible with global warming.

November 1, 2025 at 9:31 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Just a screenshot of my favourite bullet points. We are already on the hothouse earth trajectory(not maybe) and the feedbacks already at play aren't shutting down if we ramp up industrial scale development (solar, wind). More weak, underwhelming, spineless messaging. Again.

#kissyourassgoodbye

Climate change mitigation strategies are available, cost effective, and urgently needed. From forest protection and renewables to plant-rich diets, we can still limit warming if we act boldly and quickly.

October 30, 2025 at 1:00 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

25 yrs for +3C is very optimistic. It's likely coming in the 2030's.

John is very realistic and his explainations are much easier to digest than most.

www.facebook.com/share/p/17Ja...

October 29, 2025 at 1:51 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Well this is fantastic, who needs ice? We all do that's who.

Everyone gets fixated on BOE and what not. By the time there's a BOE I'm not sure it's going to matter to us one way or another.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/17rd2Q...

Been a while since I've talked about Arctic sea ice...but yeah, things are bad. The Central Arctic is experiencing the lowest sea ice extent since at least 1979.

Abnormal warmth has been prominent in the far north and may continue through November, slowing sea ice growth further. One major impact of less ice over the Arctic Ocean further into the cold season will be greater coastal erosion from storms.

Global sea ice extent (so including the Antarctic, where it is Spring) is also very low for the time of year.

October 22, 2025 at 7:18 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Global growth of the heat engine is humming along just fine. La nina is getting swallowed up by it right now.

www.facebook.com/share/p/1AGw...

Our recent trend toward a weak La Niña may already be ending. Mostly warm water, not cold, is now flowing rapidly westward at the surface along the equator from the coasts of Ecuador and northern Peru. Downwelling, not upwelling, is occurring along virtually the entire Pacific coast of the South American continent.

Image: Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date with surface ocean currents superimposed from earth.nullschool.net. The tiny green circle along the equator shows an SSTA for the date of + 3.1 degrees C or + 5.6 degrees F.

October 21, 2025 at 11:20 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Once again, ocean stratification has been the game changer. Massive amounts of heat the depths of the seas used to absorb are now fed back to the atmosphere regularly. Building solar farms and batteries won't stop this. We're fucked.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/14Mrtj...

Text is for both images.

This is a forecast for the 3 months running average for this coming January 1 - March 31 of the height anomaly of the 500 mb pressure surface for the northern hemisphere. The average height according to climatology is 5,600 m (18,000 ft) in northern hemisphere winter. It tells you the relative amount of heat in the atmosphere between the surface and that altitude. The anomalies over the NE Pacific are by far the highest I have ever seen for a 3 month average anomaly anywhere in the world. January and March individually show values literally off the charts - in the violet range.

These hyper anomalies are due to the predicted enormous wintertime heat release from the record mega marine heat wave in the North Pacific (current sea surface temperature anomalies are shown in last image) as wintertime mid latitude cyclones with high winds suck out much of the accumuated excess heat from the ocean. They won’t suck all of it out by any means because the heat extends to several hundred meters deep. Next year the record Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies will likely be significantly higher and so will the winter 2026-2027 500 mb pressure surface heights.

Global warming is accelerating and the Earth Energy Imbalance has more than doubled just in the last few years. The excess heat is being absorbed by the uppermost ocean, not the deep ocean as it was until just a few years ago, due to increasing stratification of the uppermost ocean caused by global warming feedbacks. Average surface air temperatures and average sea surface temperatures are rising faster than at any other time in Earth’s history. We are in big trouble.

First two images from tropicaltidbits.com

Last image from earth.nullschool.net

October 20, 2025 at 8:59 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

"We are on a trajectory to +3 C sometime in the 2030's".

3°C is where human extinction really gains momentum and is realistically no longer avoidable in this timeframe.

"Human extinction is becoming likely by mid century".

#fucked
#kissyourassgoodbye
#collapse

www.facebook.com/share/1CoFJU...

Text is for both images.

The Global Forecast System model now predicts a + 1.6 C Northern Hemisphere average 2 m height air temperature anomaly in 7 days, compared to a 1981-2010 baseline. The global average anomaly compared to pre-industrial times is forecast to be + 1.8 C. These values show a massive increase of about + 0.3 to + 0.4 C just since October 1. I suspect this is due to heat transfer to the atmosphere from the record North Pacific marine heat wave. This global increase is associated with rising temperature anomalies in both polar regions and increasing continental heat waves virtually worldwide. Marine heat waves have amplified considerably in 2025 globally despite ENSO neutral conditions shifting to a weak La Niña.

There is now little chance of returning below the + 1.5 C (above pre-industrial) threshold that the IPCC consistently warned about. We will likely see ENSO neutral and a trend towards El Niño later in 2026 which will assuredly raise global temperatures further. + 2.0 C appears likely by 2030 or sooner if we get a strong El Niño which is likely. Even with no El Niño, marine heat waves are likely to continue amplifying which is now definitively contributing to atmospheric warming.

The Earth Energy Imbalance is increasing and that extra heat is being absorbed increasingly by the far upper ocean, not the deep ocean as it was until just a few years ago, due to increasing upper ocean stratification associated with increasing polar ice melt and cloud cover reduction feedbacks.

We are on a trajectory to + 3 C sometime in the 2030s. A climate feedback cascade is already beginning and if we do not massively cut greenhouse gas emissions post haste, human extinction is becoming likely by mid century.

October 17, 2025 at 9:58 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

2°C by 2050 is nonesense, there's no avoiding 3°C by 2030 realistically. This was already locked in well before the 1.5 lie.

www.facebook.com/share/p/1Bhn...

Why we’re in big trouble - in two simple graphs. It’s much worse though because the vast majority of the imbalance is increasingly absorbed by the uppermost few hundred meters of the increasingly stratified uppermost ocean. The Earth Energy Imbalance has increased by 338% since 2004. Until the last few years most of it was being absorbed by the deep ocean. Not any more. This is why global warming is accelerating. September alone saw a + 0.2 degrees C (+ 0.4 degrees F) rise in global average surface air temperature.

We are now at 1.4 to 1.5 degrees C (2.6 F) of warming compared to pre- industrial times. If we don’t take drastic action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions post haste and begin new ways of sequestering much of it already in the atmosphere we will see + 2 degrees C (+ 4 degrees F) within about 5 years and + 3 degrees C (+ 6 degrees F) within about 15 years. At + 3 degrees C humans rapidly go extinct.

October 15, 2025 at 11:31 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Meanwhile on the east coast. The silent killer of #collapse. I'm finally exceptional.

#kissyourassgoodbye

October 14, 2025 at 12:04 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

While everyone is busy squabbling over king trump this is happening. Everything besides this is trivial. We are watching the sixth mass extinctions' end game. It's accelerating rapidly and there's not a damned thing anyone can do to stop it.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1BoH4a...

This text is for both images.

This image is a stunning and staggering snapshot of rapidly accelerating global warming which is becoming an order of magnitude (10 times) worse in the polar regions. Not only is much of the Arctic’s (the Arctic is from 66.5 to 90 degrees north latitude) surface air temperature forecast to be + 15 C to + 20 degrees C (+ 27 to + 36 degrees F) above the average for the date, much of the Antarctic (66.5 to 90 degrees south latitude) will approach that. Image is a forecast map for 7 days from now from the U.S. Global Forecast System model from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National Weather Service.

In the Arctic the magnitude of warming strongly increases poleward. The Arctic Ocean is now mostly ice free. In the Antarctic the temperature anomaly maxima is at about 75 degrees south latitude because the South Pole (90 degrees south) is at high elevation in the middle of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Last winter much of the Arctic was + 10 to + 15 degrees C (+ 18 to + 27 degrees F) above the average for the date for 3 months running from January 1 to March 31. I was hoping that record wouldn’t be eclipsed so soon. It appears it will be shattered. We are entering the catastrophic phase of global warming.

October 10, 2025 at 9:36 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

1/2 Basically John is saying 2040 will be it. Carbon capture is nonesense, a scheme cooked up by industry. We also know rapid decline in emissions equals termination shock, accelerating warming. In any case, we'll keep burning and destroying.

#kissyourassgoodbye

www.facebook.com/share/1Jwwck...

October 8, 2025 at 11:35 AM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Wakey wakey we're not in Kansas anymore Dorothy.

#kissyourassgoodbye
#collapse

www.facebook.com/share/p/1BJh...

Extreme “localized El Niño” conditions are now in place off the coast of northern Peru while a La Niña pattern is trying to take shape in the equatorial Pacific overall. In fact, much of the far eastern equatorial Pacific is much warmer than average for the date. Sea surface temperature anomalies are now over + 5 degrees C (+ 9 F) off northern Peru. I didn’t think much of it until I found that the same occurred in early 2023 just before the onset of one of the strongest El Niños on record.

“Comparison to 2023: This event echoes the "extreme coastal El Niño" in early 2023, which also saw intense coastal warming and heavy rainfall during a period of otherwise neutral or cooler central Pacific conditions.” - Google AI

October 3, 2025 at 5:04 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Just in case you got all excited when the Pacific cooled a bit. Reality check, this is the definition of a feedback loop.

#kissyourassgoodbye
#collapse

www.facebook.com/share/p/1BL5...

A very concerning new development: a sharp upward spike of global average surface air temperature anomaly in September similar to 2023 when we had one of the strongest El Niños on record. Should not be happening now in a La Niña. I suspect this spike is largely due to the massive heat transfer to the atmosphere from the record mega marine heat wave (MHW) in the North Pacific this year which began a decade ago and is now a massively amplifying feedback of global warming - an annually oscillating phenomenon producing a similar magnitude of impacts to the global climate as the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - but every year as opposed to every 2 to 7 years with ENSO.

Colour coded map showing the overheated pacific gaining heat again already after discharging to the atmosphere.

Same image as previous with the following comment from orignal post author, John Scheve.

"Yes it’s gone back up in some parts of the MHW after falling by nearly half in much of September."

October 3, 2025 at 12:19 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

The hits keep coming faster and harder. There's no such thing as a safe haven to escape.

#kissyourassgoodbye
#we'refucked

www.facebook.com/share/1CXvWJ...

This text covers both images.

"Climate Change Quadruple Whammy

Ruidoso, New Mexico is flooding again today after record floods in July because a massive burn scar from the 2022 Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak wildfires prevents normal water absorption, leading to flash floods during heavy monsoon rains intensified by warmer air that holds more moisture and stronger monsoonal winds bringing surges of moist air from areas with anomalously high sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and off Baha.

The highly contorted polar and subtropical jet streams are producing increasingly meridional flow, energizing mid latitude cyclones. The polar jet stream has become increasingly shredded, wobbly, and meridional the past few years, especially this year, associated with highly disparate and massively accelerating warming in the Arctic which had surface air temperature anomalies of + 10 to + 15 degrees C (+18 to + 27 degrees F) above the average for the date for three months running late last winter.

The warming in the Arctic led to record sea ice loss which lowers planetary albedo (reflectivity of solar radiation) and increases heat absorption of the sea surface. Meanwhile in the tropics and subploar latitudes warming seas have reduced cloud cover (letting more solar radiation warm the surface). The warmer seas have also darkened clouds (increasing absorption of solar radiation by clouds), further increasing the Earth Energy Imbalance and global warming. Antarctica has also seen accelerating warming this year due to other feedbacks.

We are now on a course to + 3 degrees C (+ 5.4 degrees F) of increase in global average surface air temperature by about 2035 - about 65 years faster than global climate models predicted. Many climate experts believe that amount of global warming - and at the fastest rate in Earth’s history - will lead to human extinction.

Flooding in Ruidoso, NM this evening.
Photo: Jesus Figueroa"

September 19, 2025 at 12:02 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

Gee, it's a good thing we're expecting a la nina soon.

#we'refucked
#collapse

www.facebook.com/share/17DGQU...

Text covers both images.

"A very bad signal in global average surface air temperature anomaly is developing. We’ve had global upward pulses like this before but not this large or sustained that I recall absent an El Niño. I suspect this is driven mainly by heat loss to the atmosphere from the mega marine heat wave in the North Pacific and possibly a newly discovered atmospheric heat flux via the Indian Ocean into Antarctica from sea surface warming far away in the North Atlantic.

Marine heatwaves are increasing in size, intensity, and duration globally with the mega marine heat wave in the North Pacific becoming a persistent annually oscillating phenomenon with impacts of roughly similar magnitude to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation.

All of these effects are associated with increasing heat in the system - an increasing Earth Energy Imbalance due to greenhouse gas emissions, falling planetary albedo (less sea ice), and other feedbacks. This excess heat is being focussed into the upper few hundred meters of the oceans due to increasing density stratification there and a particularly massive feedback of decreasing cloud cover allowing more solar radiation to heat the ocean surface.

A highly unusual long duration and intense stratospheric warming event is just beginning around the South Pole where stratospheric warming events were never known to happen until 2002 but are becoming increasingly frequent and intense over the last few years. They’re more common at the North Pole but those events are also increasing in intensity and frequency. However, all stratospheric warming events tend to cause a net cooling near the Earth’s surface as polar air is dislodged from the polar vortex equator-ward. So that makes this new uptick in global average surface air temperature anomalies for the date (the last 7 days portion on the graph is a new Global Forecast System prediction from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction) even more concerning."

September 18, 2025 at 1:25 PM

🇨🇦Ⓥ🇨🇦

@doomrick.bsky.social

No problem, nothing to see here, it's fine. We'll just move right along with industrial scale infrastructure, call it renewable and just like that, it's all good.

#kissyourassgoodbye
#we'refucked
#collapse

www.facebook.com/share/1LjH7H...

This text covers all four images.

"The Southern Ocean, Especially Right around Antarctica Is Warming Rapidly and Significantly, Especially this Year, Accelerating Global Warming

The climatological average date of maximum sea ice extent around Antarctica (where it is now nearly spring) is about today.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) for the date of 16 September in each of the last 4 years with highest SSTA value location I could find is in the tiny green circle on each of the four images here:

1. 2025

2. 2024

3. 2023

4. 2022

The amount of area colored yellow (maximum SSTA) has grown substantially. But I think what’s more significant is the region immediately encircling the ice. There has been a dramatic warming there this year.

The Southern Ocean (SO) in general is warming and will likely continue to warm.

There is a hemispheric feedback at minimum that looks more and more to be a global feedback causing the SO to warm.

Reasons for this feedback:

1. Increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

2. Atmospheric blocking patterns and increasingly wavier Southern Hemisphere jets around Antarctica - e.g. we observe a deformation of the SAM (Southern Anular Mode). The SAM is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere, primarily affecting Antarctica by controlling the position of the band of strong westerly winds. A positive SAM is associated with a poleward shift of these winds, increasing warming and ice melt on the Antarctic Peninsula, while a negative SAM results in a more equatorward shift, potentially leading to increased snowfall and milder conditions in parts of Antarctica. The SAM is influenced by greenhouse gases and the ozone hole, and its continued shift towards positive polarity is a key factor in ongoing changes to Antarctic ice shelves and surrounding ocean circulation.

3. An intensification of the atmospheric high pressure belt (ring) around Antarctica as it moves poleward.

4. Warmer water fro…

September 18, 2025 at 11:59 AM

Add to Home Screen

Light up
your news

Add to Home Screen

Light upyour news

Sign in to Lightnews

Sign up to start reading

Connect Bluesky

Connect with Bluesky

Light up
your news