David Shor
@davidshor.bsky.social
Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami.
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
I try to elect Democrats.
Views are my own. he/him🌹
As far as I know not much has been written about the behind the scenes stuff on HR 1, but this post from Bruenig (who definitely is not a moderate!!!) on Childcare gets at a lot of the same dynamics.
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
November 7, 2025 at 10:09 PM
As far as I know not much has been written about the behind the scenes stuff on HR 1, but this post from Bruenig (who definitely is not a moderate!!!) on Childcare gets at a lot of the same dynamics.
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2022/04/19/t...
Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).
September 15, 2025 at 6:15 PM
Hard to know exactly - some combination of TikTok and Covid changing people’s news consumption to be way more online (discords, WhatsApp groups, etc).
If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day
September 15, 2025 at 5:51 PM
If you add all the left and right wing parties together the age trend is pretty clear as day
If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic
September 15, 2025 at 5:49 PM
If you look at the California high school mock election data (take with the biggest grain of salt you can imagine), you see that the cohort of kids who would have millennial parents seem to be way more Democratic
The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
September 15, 2025 at 5:25 PM
The "Harris did better than polls suggested among old voters and worse with young voters" comes through pretty clearly if you look at precinct data.
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
The basic issue is that the partisan gap between highly engaged and highly disengaged young voters went up *a lot* from 2020 to 2024
I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely
July 12, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I did an all left vs all right comparison and saw the same thing in the UK - I think the same is true in Canada from eyeballing but haven't checked too closely
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
July 12, 2025 at 4:24 PM
Non-white voters are rapidly trending toward right wing parties in Canada, the UK, and potentially other countries as well as the US.
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...
One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify as heterosexual
June 26, 2025 at 10:48 PM
One fun graph for pride: the single strongest demographic predictor I’ve found so far for predicting Cuomo vote share is what fraction of registered voters in the precinct identify as heterosexual
The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
June 26, 2025 at 10:47 PM
The mayor race on Tuesday saw massive turnout differentials - turnout in @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social’sbstrongest precincts was up ~30% while turnout in Cuomo’s best districts were ~ flat.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
These are big differences - essentially two different elections that happened to fall on the same day.
Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
June 26, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Traditionally there's been a quant/qual split on ad length in Democratic politics, with [usually more moderate] quants pushing for shorter 15 second ads and [usually more progressive] qual folks pushing for 60 second ads.
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Great to see @zohrankmamdani.bsky.social sided with the nerds!
Political digital operations are warped enormously by engagement taylorism that pushes them to cater their message and brand to the donor base.
It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!
It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!
June 25, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Political digital operations are warped enormously by engagement taylorism that pushes them to cater their message and brand to the donor base.
It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!
It's better to have a message that appeals to normal people even when it means you raise less money!
Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
June 25, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Zohran raised a lot less money than you'd expect given his vote share and educated coalition - he barely outraised Lander!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
His prioritization of persuasion over fundraising in his public facing communication was extremely unusual and more Democrats should follow his lead!
I've been a fan of his for a long time.
Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world
Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world
June 25, 2025 at 3:56 PM
I've been a fan of his for a long time.
Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world
Everybody overestimates the extent to which these twitter factional beefs extend to campaign world
Big picture, the basis of the Grumbach/Boinica work is that the two-way party registration of 2024 non-voters is ~61%.
But this is based on registrations that are often decades old.
Politics has changed a lot since then: Dems won ~50% of them in 2016 and 44% of them in 2020.
But this is based on registrations that are often decades old.
Politics has changed a lot since then: Dems won ~50% of them in 2016 and 44% of them in 2020.
May 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Big picture, the basis of the Grumbach/Boinica work is that the two-way party registration of 2024 non-voters is ~61%.
But this is based on registrations that are often decades old.
Politics has changed a lot since then: Dems won ~50% of them in 2016 and 44% of them in 2020.
But this is based on registrations that are often decades old.
Politics has changed a lot since then: Dems won ~50% of them in 2016 and 44% of them in 2020.
3) Both posts relied heavily on CES data.
There were large partisan gaps wrt engagement concentrated among young people, but the CES didn't meaningfully weight on political engagement.
This led to both overestimates of youth/non-voter support and weird youth by gender numbers.
There were large partisan gaps wrt engagement concentrated among young people, but the CES didn't meaningfully weight on political engagement.
This led to both overestimates of youth/non-voter support and weird youth by gender numbers.
May 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
3) Both posts relied heavily on CES data.
There were large partisan gaps wrt engagement concentrated among young people, but the CES didn't meaningfully weight on political engagement.
This led to both overestimates of youth/non-voter support and weird youth by gender numbers.
There were large partisan gaps wrt engagement concentrated among young people, but the CES didn't meaningfully weight on political engagement.
This led to both overestimates of youth/non-voter support and weird youth by gender numbers.
2) Bonica/Grumbach assume that "at most 10%" of non-voter registered Democrats supported Trump.
Our best estimate from survey data is that number was actually ~32%, consistent with administrative and ecological evidence showing this group is rapidly becoming more Republican.
Our best estimate from survey data is that number was actually ~32%, consistent with administrative and ecological evidence showing this group is rapidly becoming more Republican.
May 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
2) Bonica/Grumbach assume that "at most 10%" of non-voter registered Democrats supported Trump.
Our best estimate from survey data is that number was actually ~32%, consistent with administrative and ecological evidence showing this group is rapidly becoming more Republican.
Our best estimate from survey data is that number was actually ~32%, consistent with administrative and ecological evidence showing this group is rapidly becoming more Republican.
1) It's improper to analyze party registration data without taking into account registration date.
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
May 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
1) It's improper to analyze party registration data without taking into account registration date.
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
Analyzing voter file data both cross-sectionally and within-person, it's clear that non-voters have become much more Republican in recent years relative to voters
Great to see @gallego.senate.gov speak common sense on this issue too
May 13, 2025 at 5:17 PM
Great to see @gallego.senate.gov speak common sense on this issue too
Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled
May 13, 2025 at 5:16 PM
Really great to see @rokhanna.bsky.social stand up for tracking - removing advanced classes from schools is literally the single most unpopular policy we've ever polled
If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th!
lu.ma/dugt12v6
lu.ma/dugt12v6
May 12, 2025 at 5:24 PM
If you're in the Bay Area tomorrow and want to learn more about ways to apply AI skills toward progressive change and fighting Trump, come check us out on Tuesday May 13th!
lu.ma/dugt12v6
lu.ma/dugt12v6
Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose!
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
March 18, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Also we’re hiring for an AI-focused machine learning engineer role at Blue Rose!
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
This is a great chance to be at the forefront of using cutting edge machine learning techniques to resist Donald Trump!
t.co/dwE3D3mJ4F
But we can't just focus on winning the last war - AI capabilities increasing exponentially but will impact America unevenly in ways that risk accelerating our existing cultural divides - Democrats to be proactive
Find the full 2024 analysis/contact us here: data.blueroseresearch.org/2024retro
Find the full 2024 analysis/contact us here: data.blueroseresearch.org/2024retro
March 18, 2025 at 3:23 PM
But we can't just focus on winning the last war - AI capabilities increasing exponentially but will impact America unevenly in ways that risk accelerating our existing cultural divides - Democrats to be proactive
Find the full 2024 analysis/contact us here: data.blueroseresearch.org/2024retro
Find the full 2024 analysis/contact us here: data.blueroseresearch.org/2024retro
Some good news: messages on economic populism that acknowledge high costs of living and our policies to bring down prices are very persuasive at getting people to support Democrats.
March 18, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Some good news: messages on economic populism that acknowledge high costs of living and our policies to bring down prices are very persuasive at getting people to support Democrats.
Now what?
As Democrats try to shape the story against Trump, the most effective critiques of Trump are actually pretty similar to the ways Democrats ran against Mitt Romney: he’s giving huge tax breaks to the wealthy and trying to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare.
As Democrats try to shape the story against Trump, the most effective critiques of Trump are actually pretty similar to the ways Democrats ran against Mitt Romney: he’s giving huge tax breaks to the wealthy and trying to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare.
March 18, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Now what?
As Democrats try to shape the story against Trump, the most effective critiques of Trump are actually pretty similar to the ways Democrats ran against Mitt Romney: he’s giving huge tax breaks to the wealthy and trying to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare.
As Democrats try to shape the story against Trump, the most effective critiques of Trump are actually pretty similar to the ways Democrats ran against Mitt Romney: he’s giving huge tax breaks to the wealthy and trying to cut programs like Social Security and Medicare.