Even if the US were on a net zero trajectory, EER's modeling suggests data centers would still drive ~50% of load growth thru 2030. Eventually, economy-wide electrification will dominate, but this is the decade to max out clean firm we can build while tech companies are willing/able to pay a premium

While data center load growth presents new challenges for climate goals, we're already seeing the data center boom could be a major driver of early demand for nascent clean firm power technologies, buying down costs for others. This figure from the ADP24 captures the scale of the opportunity.

Pause for a moment and admire the incredible success we’ve had.

www.cnn.com/2024/11/15/c...

For more, check out the full report by Evolved Energy Research, download input and results data, and explore interactive versions of the figures on Tableau Public:
evolved.energy/2023-us-adp

Energy parks (large renewables projects w/co-located energy intensive industrial processes) could unlock clean energy potential in the near term, otherwise limited by constrained transmission. The ADP modeled the scale & location of potential energy parks for the first time.

Half a Gt of DAC capacity could be needed in the US by 2050 to reach net zero, underscoring the urgency & importance of investing in emerging carbon-management tech. Demo programs are key for testing tech and optimal locations. (figure shows top 8 states by modeled deployment)

One pathway to growing clean firm capacity is to retrofit existing coal and gas plants with nuclear, CCS, or other low carbon technologies. In the Drop-in scenario, brownfield opportunities for clean firm power play as large (or larger) a role by 2050 as greenfield projects.

Improving tech plus expanded tax credits open a pathway for capturing and sequestering emissions from existing ethanol production while converting the ethanol to jet fuel. This could create new economic opportunity for US corn producers as ethanol blending in gasoline declines.

Once referred to as “hard-to-decarbonize sectors,” heavy industries have increasing abatement options on the path to net zero. This year's ADP expands the number of solutions modeled for steel and cement industries--highlighting opportunities for CCS and H2.

Numerous technologies are modest cost declines away from being competitive in a net-zero energy system, esp when accounting for non-cost barriers. Supporting a diverse set of technologies provides valuable optionality as we navigate uncertain obstacles along the way to net zero.

Many emerging clean technologies needed at scale in the 2030s and beyond will require proactive infrastructure planning to enable their widespread deployment.

New clean electricity incentives enable an accelerated scale up of clean energy technologies, but we will need a longer-term strategy before credits are due to expire in the 2030s to support sustained deployment at home and abroad (e.g., a clean electricity standards)

Expanded tax credits reduce the direct cost of decarbonization, making it cheaper to choose clean energy. And the costs across the energy system of increasing ambition to reach net zero have dropped substantially ($68B additional annual cost in 2050 vs. $172B w/o recent policy)

Recent policies are expected to drive a significant amount of emissions reductions in two critical areas, clean power generation and transportation electrification, bringing us closer to a net zero trajectory. But more work is needed, especially in industry and fuels.