David Karol
@davidkarol.bsky.social
Govt & Politics prof, UMD.
Billy Wilder fan. Has "Someone is wrong on the internet!" tendencies.
Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides. No replies to anons.
https://gvpt.umd.edu/faculty
Billy Wilder fan. Has "Someone is wrong on the internet!" tendencies.
Author: Red, Green and Blue & Party Position Change in American Politics. Co-author: The Party Decides. No replies to anons.
https://gvpt.umd.edu/faculty
Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:
July 2, 2025 at 10:28 PM
Rep. Davidson (R.-OH.) voted AGAINST the House version of the bill. He is now voting FOR the Senate version, which is supposedly further from his preferences:
Mitch McConnell isn't running again. That has freed him up to oppose Trump nominees, including Hegseth and RFK Jr, but also to say things like this (from Punchbowl):
June 24, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Mitch McConnell isn't running again. That has freed him up to oppose Trump nominees, including Hegseth and RFK Jr, but also to say things like this (from Punchbowl):
So they missed the front page?
June 17, 2025 at 2:54 PM
So they missed the front page?
PS: 6/15 NYT print edition
June 16, 2025 at 1:16 AM
PS: 6/15 NYT print edition
Not a one day story. But without being compelled to testify they can brazen it out, Trump is good at creating distractions that interest the media. It's a Catch-22 for Goldberg. If Hegseth and Gabbard are lying about information not being classified, how can Goldberg responsibly refute them? 1)
March 25, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Not a one day story. But without being compelled to testify they can brazen it out, Trump is good at creating distractions that interest the media. It's a Catch-22 for Goldberg. If Hegseth and Gabbard are lying about information not being classified, how can Goldberg responsibly refute them? 1)
Almost a month after Bezos's announcement about changing the Washington Post opinion section, there is no new editorial page editor, editorials and many columns are critical of Trump and negative news stories about the admin are on the front page. This may be a transitional period, but notable.
March 21, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Almost a month after Bezos's announcement about changing the Washington Post opinion section, there is no new editorial page editor, editorials and many columns are critical of Trump and negative news stories about the admin are on the front page. This may be a transitional period, but notable.
Among these Democrats up for re-election in 2026, only Ossoff is looking at a tough general election.
March 12, 2025 at 4:42 PM
Among these Democrats up for re-election in 2026, only Ossoff is looking at a tough general election.
John Zaller wrote a book about this phenomenon (partisans following cues from political leaders) in 1992 based on data from the 1960s through the 1980s. This is NOT at all a new thing or unique to Trump followers. The effect may be larger now, but the dynamic is not new.
March 7, 2025 at 9:41 PM
John Zaller wrote a book about this phenomenon (partisans following cues from political leaders) in 1992 based on data from the 1960s through the 1980s. This is NOT at all a new thing or unique to Trump followers. The effect may be larger now, but the dynamic is not new.
Re the growing number of "Leopards Eat My Face!" complaints: We can distinguish between those who believed broken promises (Trump wasn't for Project 2025, he'd make IVF free etc) and those who assumed he WAS lying, just to other, lesser Trump voters, but he'd never do the thing THEY disliked:
March 4, 2025 at 1:10 AM
Re the growing number of "Leopards Eat My Face!" complaints: We can distinguish between those who believed broken promises (Trump wasn't for Project 2025, he'd make IVF free etc) and those who assumed he WAS lying, just to other, lesser Trump voters, but he'd never do the thing THEY disliked:
Bizarrely, it comforts some to attribute this much power to the NYT & WaPo. Imagining they could say magic words and banish Trump- but choose not to!-is somehow less threatening than the realization that their readers overwhelmingly hate Trump, but most voters never read them, so he won anyway.
February 9, 2025 at 4:07 PM
Bizarrely, it comforts some to attribute this much power to the NYT & WaPo. Imagining they could say magic words and banish Trump- but choose not to!-is somehow less threatening than the realization that their readers overwhelmingly hate Trump, but most voters never read them, so he won anyway.
Granger's office gives statement to Fox. Correspondent has quote from GOP official on why she didn't resign; "we needed the numbers." But she wasn't voting starting in July! That explains her sticking around before then, but not the last six months.
December 22, 2024 at 6:33 PM
Granger's office gives statement to Fox. Correspondent has quote from GOP official on why she didn't resign; "we needed the numbers." But she wasn't voting starting in July! That explains her sticking around before then, but not the last six months.
Post a movie about politics that you suspect no one remembers.
December 18, 2024 at 2:12 AM
Post a movie about politics that you suspect no one remembers.
On Bluesky it seems everyone knows who AOC is and really likes her. The new Emerson poll is different. Some don't know her and she's underwater and less popular than Buttigieg, Cuban, Shapiro and Whitmer. She's just ahead ahead of Newsom. See full results: emersoncollegepolling.com/december-202...
December 17, 2024 at 8:07 PM
On Bluesky it seems everyone knows who AOC is and really likes her. The new Emerson poll is different. Some don't know her and she's underwater and less popular than Buttigieg, Cuban, Shapiro and Whitmer. She's just ahead ahead of Newsom. See full results: emersoncollegepolling.com/december-202...
But now they're wearing them ironically.
November 28, 2024 at 2:05 AM
But now they're wearing them ironically.
Sanders didn't post this here, so reposting from you know where. Leaving aside the wisdom of purging people so there are fewer, but better Democrats, how is this supposed to work? Primaries in the US are mostly run by state govts. Candidates get on the ballot via petitions+filing fees.1)
November 25, 2024 at 9:46 PM
Sanders didn't post this here, so reposting from you know where. Leaving aside the wisdom of purging people so there are fewer, but better Democrats, how is this supposed to work? Primaries in the US are mostly run by state govts. Candidates get on the ballot via petitions+filing fees.1)
Moderated this panel last night at the Capital Jewish Museum. Not sure if there is video, although we had a Zoom audience.
capitaljewishmuseum.org/events/panel...
capitaljewishmuseum.org/events/panel...
November 21, 2024 at 1:30 PM
Moderated this panel last night at the Capital Jewish Museum. Not sure if there is video, although we had a Zoom audience.
capitaljewishmuseum.org/events/panel...
capitaljewishmuseum.org/events/panel...
This is late for The Discourse, but issue priority answers are mostly post-hoc rationalization. Most voters are long-term partisans & were never in doubt. What does it mean for someone who has voted for every R. since Reagan or every D. since Clinton to identify "the issue that mattered most"?
November 12, 2024 at 2:00 PM
This is late for The Discourse, but issue priority answers are mostly post-hoc rationalization. Most voters are long-term partisans & were never in doubt. What does it mean for someone who has voted for every R. since Reagan or every D. since Clinton to identify "the issue that mattered most"?
The AP is not actually in the Constitution.
November 11, 2024 at 3:28 PM
The AP is not actually in the Constitution.
Only a few states (CO, IA, VA) have really changed coloration. This level of stability was not present in the mid to late 20th century. If we compare the 2000 and 1976 maps, we see enormous differences in geographical alignment in these close races.
November 7, 2024 at 1:26 PM
Only a few states (CO, IA, VA) have really changed coloration. This level of stability was not present in the mid to late 20th century. If we compare the 2000 and 1976 maps, we see enormous differences in geographical alignment in these close races.
Attention is rightly given to electoral shifts, e.g. Latino support for Trump. In recent years generational and educational divides have emerged too, but it's important to note stability in voting patterns as well. 44 states+DC voted the same way in 2000 & 2024. Some have stayed "purple".1)
November 7, 2024 at 1:22 PM
Attention is rightly given to electoral shifts, e.g. Latino support for Trump. In recent years generational and educational divides have emerged too, but it's important to note stability in voting patterns as well. 44 states+DC voted the same way in 2000 & 2024. Some have stayed "purple".1)
Mark Robinson's defeat in North Carolina is a rare bright spot for Dems. But consider that his campaign was almost an experiment in seeing just how self-destructive a candidate could be, leading him to be abandoned by Trump and he still won 40% of the vote, 11 pts behind Trump. Partisanship!
November 6, 2024 at 4:51 PM
Mark Robinson's defeat in North Carolina is a rare bright spot for Dems. But consider that his campaign was almost an experiment in seeing just how self-destructive a candidate could be, leading him to be abandoned by Trump and he still won 40% of the vote, 11 pts behind Trump. Partisanship!
These numbers mean a chunk of voters backed these pro-choice measures and Trump.
November 6, 2024 at 3:57 PM
These numbers mean a chunk of voters backed these pro-choice measures and Trump.
"the most surprising — and very upsetting — thing was how many people on this staff had never seen the movie.”- This always shocks me too, esp. people above a certain age, to go through life THIS uncurious, how is it possible? It's not the time commitment a Russian novel is, even with the sequel.
August 20, 2024 at 11:30 PM
"the most surprising — and very upsetting — thing was how many people on this staff had never seen the movie.”- This always shocks me too, esp. people above a certain age, to go through life THIS uncurious, how is it possible? It's not the time commitment a Russian novel is, even with the sequel.
Many were surprised/frustrated during the recent weeks of uncertainty. Yet historically parties have nominated many -incumbents & others-trailing by more than Biden did. No incumbent who clearly wanted it was rebuffed since stroke victim Wilson. So it is a remarkable moment. 1)
July 21, 2024 at 9:59 PM
Many were surprised/frustrated during the recent weeks of uncertainty. Yet historically parties have nominated many -incumbents & others-trailing by more than Biden did. No incumbent who clearly wanted it was rebuffed since stroke victim Wilson. So it is a remarkable moment. 1)