David A. McKay
@davidamckay.bsky.social
Climate & Earth system scientist; Lecturer, Sussex Uni; sci-comm, inc climatetippingpoints.info. Into Earth, life, & societies as complex & intertwined systems. More often at https://mstdn.social/@davidamckay
davidarmstrongmckay.com
davidarmstrongmckay.com
Yeah, I also struggle to see this (or the common logic that it *must* be feasible because it's in IAM scenarios, or otherwise TPs will happen). More sympathetic to moderate expansion of 'NBS' + ⬇️deforest = ⬆️sink, but social & economic constraints make it modest, and w/o mitigation that fails too...
November 24, 2025 at 9:45 AM
Yeah, I also struggle to see this (or the common logic that it *must* be feasible because it's in IAM scenarios, or otherwise TPs will happen). More sympathetic to moderate expansion of 'NBS' + ⬇️deforest = ⬆️sink, but social & economic constraints make it modest, and w/o mitigation that fails too...
Not so keen on big J's spin on this emphasising large-scale CDR then 😉? www.linkedin.com/posts/johan-...
The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality | Johan Rockström | 68 comments
While we are still waiting on a COP30 agreement in some form, the core scientific message is clear. Global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the near term, pushing us into overshoot and increasing risks fo...
www.linkedin.com
November 24, 2025 at 9:05 AM
Not so keen on big J's spin on this emphasising large-scale CDR then 😉? www.linkedin.com/posts/johan-...
I remember being shocked back in 2004 when someone brought a BNP leaflet in to school headlined "Asylum is making Britain explode" (which I believe was widely denounced). Now, two decades on, official Labour government policy is only a whisker less inflammatory...
November 18, 2025 at 9:40 AM
I remember being shocked back in 2004 when someone brought a BNP leaflet in to school headlined "Asylum is making Britain explode" (which I believe was widely denounced). Now, two decades on, official Labour government policy is only a whisker less inflammatory...
Paper on sink dynamics here: rdcu.be/ePDDS
And some reporting here: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
(also, typo on *its - oh, for an edit button here, like on masto!)
And some reporting here: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
(also, typo on *its - oh, for an edit button here, like on masto!)
World still on track for catastrophic 2.6C temperature rise, report finds
Fossil fuel emissions have hit a record high while many nations have done too little to avert deadly global heating
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 11:46 AM
Paper on sink dynamics here: rdcu.be/ePDDS
And some reporting here: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
(also, typo on *its - oh, for an edit button here, like on masto!)
And some reporting here: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
(also, typo on *its - oh, for an edit button here, like on masto!)
The new Global Carbon Budget is out, updating preliminary results reported above, & suggesting that while 2023-24 was bad for land sink it seems to be bouncing back this year. As Zeke notes 👇, the bigger story is it's emerging decline, not a sudden & total collapse. I'll update explainer on it soon!
After an usually weak land carbon sink in 2023, there were articles about its potential collapse. The truth is more complicated; while there is no impending collapse there is growing evidence of a long-term weakening of both the land and ocean carbon sinks due to human activity.
November 13, 2025 at 11:10 AM
The new Global Carbon Budget is out, updating preliminary results reported above, & suggesting that while 2023-24 was bad for land sink it seems to be bouncing back this year. As Zeke notes 👇, the bigger story is it's emerging decline, not a sudden & total collapse. I'll update explainer on it soon!
Mossn't grumble.
October 22, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Mossn't grumble.
ha yes, I thought this was quite the quote! (not sure if it's from the book though)
October 10, 2025 at 2:30 PM
ha yes, I thought this was quite the quote! (not sure if it's from the book though)
He was even more blunt in this interview, categorising Gaza & Ukraine as distractions: exame.com/en/brazil-is...
(also odd on not being worried about AI energy usage, as renewables will inevitable be abundant...)
(also odd on not being worried about AI energy usage, as renewables will inevitable be abundant...)
September 28, 2025 at 9:17 AM
He was even more blunt in this interview, categorising Gaza & Ukraine as distractions: exame.com/en/brazil-is...
(also odd on not being worried about AI energy usage, as renewables will inevitable be abundant...)
(also odd on not being worried about AI energy usage, as renewables will inevitable be abundant...)
The rapidity of oil/gas decline without investment in this report struck me too - from eyeballing, not super far off rate needed for well-below 2C (or even 1.5 if had started earlier): bsky.app/profile/drsi...
The IEA says that without any new investment, oil-and-gas production would plummet
FT reports that this will be "greeted enthusiastically" by the industry, which has long said it "needs to spend heavily to maintain its current production"
4/6
FT reports that this will be "greeted enthusiastically" by the industry, which has long said it "needs to spend heavily to maintain its current production"
4/6
September 20, 2025 at 12:21 PM
The rapidity of oil/gas decline without investment in this report struck me too - from eyeballing, not super far off rate needed for well-below 2C (or even 1.5 if had started earlier): bsky.app/profile/drsi...
Or indeed when 1 of Shell's 2021 global net-zero scenarios involved planting a *Brazil-sized* forest to make up for continuing fossil fuels to 2100: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-she....
People on the ground may be sounder on its limits, but it has been used by suits to justify continued emissions!
People on the ground may be sounder on its limits, but it has been used by suits to justify continued emissions!
Analysis: Shell says new ‘Brazil-sized’ forest would be needed to meet 1.5C climate goal - Carbon Brief
For the first time, Shell has released a “pathway” showing how the world could potentially meet the Paris Agreement’s ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.
www.carbonbrief.org
September 4, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Or indeed when 1 of Shell's 2021 global net-zero scenarios involved planting a *Brazil-sized* forest to make up for continuing fossil fuels to 2100: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-she....
People on the ground may be sounder on its limits, but it has been used by suits to justify continued emissions!
People on the ground may be sounder on its limits, but it has been used by suits to justify continued emissions!
It's also been commonly taken up in that way by politicians, e.g. UK parties outbidding each other on tree-planting targets back in 2019 election to make up a big chunk of net-zero plans, with generally underwhelming results: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...
Analysis: UK misses tree-planting targets by forest the ‘size of Birmingham’ - Carbon Brief
UK governments have fallen short of their tree-planting targets since 2020 that they have failed to plant an area of forest nearly the size of Birmingham
www.carbonbrief.org
September 4, 2025 at 2:40 PM
It's also been commonly taken up in that way by politicians, e.g. UK parties outbidding each other on tree-planting targets back in 2019 election to make up a big chunk of net-zero plans, with generally underwhelming results: www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-...
It's also fine to climb up motorway gantries, if it's for a flag bsky.app/profile/davi...
Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good... youtu.be/ney0E6sNceU?...
Yvette Cooper MP | Good Morning Britain | ITV | 17 July 2023 | Just Stop Oil
YouTube video by Just Stop Oil
youtu.be
September 2, 2025 at 5:04 PM
It's also fine to climb up motorway gantries, if it's for a flag bsky.app/profile/davi...
Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good... youtu.be/ney0E6sNceU?...
Yvette Cooper MP | Good Morning Britain | ITV | 17 July 2023 | Just Stop Oil
YouTube video by Just Stop Oil
youtu.be
September 2, 2025 at 3:58 PM
Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good... youtu.be/ney0E6sNceU?...
Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ney0...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ney0...
Yvette Cooper MP | Good Morning Britain | ITV | 17 July 2023 | Just Stop Oil
YouTube video by Just Stop Oil
www.youtube.com
September 2, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Strange how Just Stop Oil activists were imprisoned even for being in a *meeting* about going up the gantries, with Cooper calling JSO "dangerous & irresponsible" for triggering motorway closures by doing so, and yet now popping up one to put a flag on is all good...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ney0...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ney0...
Recent news for context: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
www.theguardian.com
August 29, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Recent news for context: www.theguardian.com/environment/...
Overall the general picture is the same though: the AMOC weakens with warming, the larger that warming the more likely it is to collapse in the long run, that collapse would radically change life in Europe & the tropics, and one part of it could go much sooner. But also: deep uncertainty remains!
August 29, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Overall the general picture is the same though: the AMOC weakens with warming, the larger that warming the more likely it is to collapse in the long run, that collapse would radically change life in Europe & the tropics, and one part of it could go much sooner. But also: deep uncertainty remains!
Complementarily, one can think of this (and other categorisation problems) in terms of an n-dimensional phase space on which the main PCA principal component maps roughly on to an existing axis/spectrum construct (like sex, left/right-wing, etc.), but never perfectly, or capturing all variation.
August 26, 2025 at 4:51 PM
Complementarily, one can think of this (and other categorisation problems) in terms of an n-dimensional phase space on which the main PCA principal component maps roughly on to an existing axis/spectrum construct (like sex, left/right-wing, etc.), but never perfectly, or capturing all variation.
Obviously this doesn't mean Arctic sea ice loss isn't happening (it is! and this slowdown likely means next drop is bigger) or isn't a problem (it's already causing harm!), but given how things are actually panning out the dark-boosterism that Arctic sea ice seems to attract doesn't seem very useful
August 20, 2025 at 12:02 PM
Obviously this doesn't mean Arctic sea ice loss isn't happening (it is! and this slowdown likely means next drop is bigger) or isn't a problem (it's already causing harm!), but given how things are actually panning out the dark-boosterism that Arctic sea ice seems to attract doesn't seem very useful
How it started // How it's going
(p.s. 1st graph - from XR's first talks in 2018 - is volume rather than extent, which amplifies changes, but the two have similar trends)
(p.s. 1st graph - from XR's first talks in 2018 - is volume rather than extent, which amplifies changes, but the two have similar trends)
August 20, 2025 at 12:02 PM
How it started // How it's going
(p.s. 1st graph - from XR's first talks in 2018 - is volume rather than extent, which amplifies changes, but the two have similar trends)
(p.s. 1st graph - from XR's first talks in 2018 - is volume rather than extent, which amplifies changes, but the two have similar trends)