The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack
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The Future, Now and Then | Dave Karpf | Substack
@davekarpf.substack.com.web.brid.gy
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A newsletter that mixes insights from the history of the digital future (#WIREDarchive) with observations and rants about the state of […]

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You Can't Make Me Vibecode
On the historical parallels between vibecoding and open source
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February 14, 2026 at 1:25 PM
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We are all going to regret Kalshi and Polymarket.
Gambling should be like cigarettes: Legal but inaccessible.
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February 11, 2026 at 1:25 PM
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On Crypto Crashes and Fake Money
When the cryptocurrency ecosystem sheds $2 trillion, we should pause to notice where it went.
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February 7, 2026 at 1:25 PM
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What comes next, if Claude Code is as good as people say.
We know how this turns out. First comes the novelty, then comes the corrosion.
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January 16, 2026 at 1:19 PM
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The Long Shadow of January 6th
On the failure to hold power to account.
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January 7, 2026 at 1:18 PM
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The Future, Now and Then: 2025 in review
A look back, and a look forward
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December 30, 2025 at 1:18 PM
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Some 2026 Predictions
I think we've made it past rock bottom?
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December 22, 2025 at 1:16 PM
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On Hatereading as Method
Ridicule is our last, best weapon
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December 13, 2025 at 1:14 PM
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The end of optimization
Some thoughts on a transition point in recent internet history,
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December 10, 2025 at 1:14 PM
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Black Mirror is not a Pinterest board.
Part 1 in what I really hope doesn't become a series
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November 19, 2025 at 12:54 PM
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Every generation gets to recreate the environmental movement to suit its own purposes
Some big-picture reactions to a recent NYT piece
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November 13, 2025 at 12:42 PM
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The Shutdown Surrender
I just... I mean... Whatever.
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November 11, 2025 at 12:39 PM
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Bullet Points: November 7, 2025 edition
Money is fake, it's only accounting fraud if we have a functional administrative state, and taking stock of the past year.
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November 8, 2025 at 12:39 PM
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Bill Gates's stunted political vision
Bill Gates went full Lomborg. Never go full Lomborg.
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November 5, 2025 at 12:40 PM
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Dressing Up as James Carville for Halloween
My New Republic piece, discussing the "Deciding to Win" report.
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November 1, 2025 at 12:39 PM
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Here Lies Humanity, Dead by Fancy Autocomplete
Adam Becker and I discuss everything that annoyed us about Eliezer Yudkowsky's new book
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October 30, 2025 at 12:38 PM
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It's Giving Enron
On the AI bubble, and the various echoes of the dotcom crash
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October 28, 2025 at 12:38 PM
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Bullet Points: A Few Good Reads
"Every Day, Computers Are Making People Easier to Use"
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October 9, 2025 at 12:39 PM
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The Authoritarian Transition Is Arriving Ahead-of-Schedule
ThisIsFineDog.gif
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October 1, 2025 at 12:36 PM
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On political violence and political pretext
Oh, to live in less-interesting times...
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September 23, 2025 at 11:47 AM
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What *Isn't* Abundance?
The new idea is having a moment. And the people behind the idea are blowing their opportunity.
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September 15, 2025 at 11:42 AM
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Tesla's Roadmap to Nowhere
I'll give him this: Elon Musk has a solid grasp of futurity-as-PR.
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September 15, 2025 at 11:42 AM
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Bullet Points: Arguments about Arguments edition
(I sprained my ankle yesterday.
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September 1, 2025 at 11:41 AM
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What it's like being a political communication professor right now
Misgivings, Grievances, and Thanks as I look ahead to my fifteenth year.
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August 27, 2025 at 11:37 AM
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GPT5 and the end of naive AI futurism
Tech boosters have the memories of goldfish
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August 23, 2025 at 11:36 AM