DataTrek's Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe
@datatrekresearch.bsky.social
Your daily guide to Markets, Data and Disruption. Start a 2-week FREE trial on datatrekresearch.com to receive one of Wall Street's most followed daily market commentaries!
1/2 Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded in a band of 10x – 23x forward earnings. Valuations have ebbed and flowed with investor confidence in the global financial system, economic/earnings growth, and human ingenuity...
November 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
1/2 Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded in a band of 10x – 23x forward earnings. Valuations have ebbed and flowed with investor confidence in the global financial system, economic/earnings growth, and human ingenuity...
1/2 US Big Tech stocks have gone from being 20.0% of the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 to 35.9% today. Almost half of that increase (47%) is due to NVDA, and about a quarter (24%) comes from GOOG & AMZN...
November 5, 2025 at 8:12 PM
1/2 US Big Tech stocks have gone from being 20.0% of the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 to 35.9% today. Almost half of that increase (47%) is due to NVDA, and about a quarter (24%) comes from GOOG & AMZN...
As much as corporate headcount reductions are in the news of late, it is important to remember that the US labor market has seen an average of 1.6 million layoffs every month since 2022. Yes, every single month.
November 5, 2025 at 7:03 PM
As much as corporate headcount reductions are in the news of late, it is important to remember that the US labor market has seen an average of 1.6 million layoffs every month since 2022. Yes, every single month.
Wall Street analysts are increasing their 2026 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500. These positive revisions are not just related to Tech, with 5 other groups also seeing stronger expected growth rates. This is unusual (analysts usually cut forward estimates over time) and bullish.
November 5, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Wall Street analysts are increasing their 2026 earnings growth expectations for the S&P 500. These positive revisions are not just related to Tech, with 5 other groups also seeing stronger expected growth rates. This is unusual (analysts usually cut forward estimates over time) and bullish.
Q3 financial reporting season continues to impress, even with the occasional company-specific stumble. S&P 500 earnings growth is running +10%, with further upside revisions likely.
November 4, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Q3 financial reporting season continues to impress, even with the occasional company-specific stumble. S&P 500 earnings growth is running +10%, with further upside revisions likely.
The Min Vol strategy is badly lagging its goal of capturing 70 – 80 pct of any upside gains in US stocks, thus far only generating 6 – 30 pct of the S&P’s 16.3 pct YTD price return.
November 3, 2025 at 9:18 PM
The Min Vol strategy is badly lagging its goal of capturing 70 – 80 pct of any upside gains in US stocks, thus far only generating 6 – 30 pct of the S&P’s 16.3 pct YTD price return.
Momentum has gone from dramatically outperforming the S&P 500 in Q1 (-2.3% vs. -4.6%) and Q2 (+18.9% vs. +8.1%) to underperforming in Q3 (+6.7% vs. +7.8%) and October (-0.8% vs. +2.3%).
November 3, 2025 at 9:15 PM
Momentum has gone from dramatically outperforming the S&P 500 in Q1 (-2.3% vs. -4.6%) and Q2 (+18.9% vs. +8.1%) to underperforming in Q3 (+6.7% vs. +7.8%) and October (-0.8% vs. +2.3%).
Growth stocks have been the place to be YTD in both large caps (+22.9% vs. +9.4%) and small caps (+14.9% vs. +7.9%).
November 3, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Growth stocks have been the place to be YTD in both large caps (+22.9% vs. +9.4%) and small caps (+14.9% vs. +7.9%).
After notable rallies in Q1 (+2 – +3%) and Q2 (+6 – 7%), both developed and emerging market currencies lost value versus the dollar in Q3 (-1%) and in October (-1 – -2%).
November 3, 2025 at 7:50 PM
After notable rallies in Q1 (+2 – +3%) and Q2 (+6 – 7%), both developed and emerging market currencies lost value versus the dollar in Q3 (-1%) and in October (-1 – -2%).
Every major developed economy currency declined versus the dollar last month, by an average of -1.8 pct. This move occurred against a backdrop of lower interest rates, with 2- and 10-year Treasury yields down 2 and 7 basis points to 3.38 pct and 4.08 pct, respectively.
November 3, 2025 at 7:17 PM
Every major developed economy currency declined versus the dollar last month, by an average of -1.8 pct. This move occurred against a backdrop of lower interest rates, with 2- and 10-year Treasury yields down 2 and 7 basis points to 3.38 pct and 4.08 pct, respectively.
Silver has modestly outperformed gold (+65.0% vs. +52.0%) YTD.
November 3, 2025 at 5:56 PM
Silver has modestly outperformed gold (+65.0% vs. +52.0%) YTD.
Even though all have contributed to the S&P’s YTD price gain of 16.3%, only 3 Big Tech stocks have outperformed thus far in 2025: NVDA (+50.8%), GOOG (+48.0%), and MSFT (+22.8%). The other 4 are lagging: TSLA (+13.1%), AMZN (+11.3%), META (+10.7%), and AAPL (+8.0%).
November 3, 2025 at 5:39 PM
Even though all have contributed to the S&P’s YTD price gain of 16.3%, only 3 Big Tech stocks have outperformed thus far in 2025: NVDA (+50.8%), GOOG (+48.0%), and MSFT (+22.8%). The other 4 are lagging: TSLA (+13.1%), AMZN (+11.3%), META (+10.7%), and AAPL (+8.0%).
In the aggregate, Big Tech was responsible for 90% of the S&P’s price return last month. These 7 stocks are now 35.5% of the S&P 500.
November 3, 2025 at 5:11 PM
In the aggregate, Big Tech was responsible for 90% of the S&P’s price return last month. These 7 stocks are now 35.5% of the S&P 500.
Thanks to its October rally, Tech is now solidly outperforming every other group YTD (+29.3 pct, next best group – Communications - +18.6 pct).
November 3, 2025 at 4:17 PM
Thanks to its October rally, Tech is now solidly outperforming every other group YTD (+29.3 pct, next best group – Communications - +18.6 pct).
Only Technology and Health Care outperformed last month, +6.7 pct and +3.7 pct, respectively. Tech is, of course, a major leadership group while Health Care is finally playing some catch up after being extremely oversold.
November 3, 2025 at 3:10 PM
Only Technology and Health Care outperformed last month, +6.7 pct and +3.7 pct, respectively. Tech is, of course, a major leadership group while Health Care is finally playing some catch up after being extremely oversold.
Only 3 US Big Tech names are now outperforming for the year: NVDA (+50.8%), GOOG (+48.0%), and MSFT (+22.8%).
November 3, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Only 3 US Big Tech names are now outperforming for the year: NVDA (+50.8%), GOOG (+48.0%), and MSFT (+22.8%).
Year to date, US Big Tech is responsible for 56 pct of the S&P’s gains, even though only NVDA, GOOG, and MSFT have outperformed.
November 3, 2025 at 2:31 PM
Year to date, US Big Tech is responsible for 56 pct of the S&P’s gains, even though only NVDA, GOOG, and MSFT have outperformed.
New work by the St Louis Fed shows that US economic expansions often see months where payroll numbers decline, a useful lesson for whenever we start seeing Jobs Reports again.
October 23, 2025 at 5:10 PM
New work by the St Louis Fed shows that US economic expansions often see months where payroll numbers decline, a useful lesson for whenever we start seeing Jobs Reports again.
"As DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out this week, the benchmark index's worst-performing stocks so far are a hodgepodge of names from the consumer, industrial, and services industries, including $LULU, $DOW, and $TTD." @yahoofinance.com finance.yahoo.com/news/the-sto...
The stock market is about to care about the calendar
Huge portfolio increases make tax loss harvesting more likely and more punishing to the S&P's worst performers, regardless of any actual AI influence.
finance.yahoo.com
October 23, 2025 at 4:46 PM
"As DataTrek co-founder Nicholas Colas pointed out this week, the benchmark index's worst-performing stocks so far are a hodgepodge of names from the consumer, industrial, and services industries, including $LULU, $DOW, and $TTD." @yahoofinance.com finance.yahoo.com/news/the-sto...
US households currently have $4.5 trillion deposited in checking accounts, 4x their 2019 levels. Most (+90 pct) of this cash is held by the top half of the wealth distribution.
October 23, 2025 at 4:44 PM
US households currently have $4.5 trillion deposited in checking accounts, 4x their 2019 levels. Most (+90 pct) of this cash is held by the top half of the wealth distribution.
The longer you own any broad market index fund, the less you care about its current holdings. Over the long run, returns come from ecosystems of growth and innovation, not individual companies.
October 23, 2025 at 4:42 PM
The longer you own any broad market index fund, the less you care about its current holdings. Over the long run, returns come from ecosystems of growth and innovation, not individual companies.
Have we already seen the highs for the year in the S&P 500? History says no. Watch our latest video with @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social on @thecompoundnews.bsky.social below!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLu_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLu_...
A Year-End Rally Could Double The S&P 500's Gain This Year
YouTube video by The Compound
www.youtube.com
October 22, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Have we already seen the highs for the year in the S&P 500? History says no. Watch our latest video with @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social on @thecompoundnews.bsky.social below!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLu_...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLu_...
1/3 The debate between Growth and Value equity investment styles has raged for +50 years. Most retail investors prefer Value, but not in the traditional sense. The S&P 500 Growth and Value indexes share some of that ambiguity...
October 22, 2025 at 5:43 PM
1/3 The debate between Growth and Value equity investment styles has raged for +50 years. Most retail investors prefer Value, but not in the traditional sense. The S&P 500 Growth and Value indexes share some of that ambiguity...
1/2 @SpaceX reached 2 major milestones this past weekend. It has now delivered over 10,000 satellites into low-Earth Orbit for its internet service @Starlink, and its most used Falcon 9 booster launched for the 31st time...
October 22, 2025 at 4:15 PM
1/2 @SpaceX reached 2 major milestones this past weekend. It has now delivered over 10,000 satellites into low-Earth Orbit for its internet service @Starlink, and its most used Falcon 9 booster launched for the 31st time...