Dario Perkins
@darioperkins.bsky.social
MD Global Macro, macro themes/research/risks, central-bank specialist, started career at HM Treasury in late 90s, ex ABN AMRO, AC Milan fan
Twitter's "most important chart in the world"... about America's "K-shaped" economy... also works for FRANCE. So maybe its not about ChatGPT?!
November 5, 2025 at 12:05 PM
Twitter's "most important chart in the world"... about America's "K-shaped" economy... also works for FRANCE. So maybe its not about ChatGPT?!
wishful thinking
September 17, 2025 at 2:51 PM
wishful thinking
this is what happened to inflation:
September 12, 2025 at 9:08 AM
this is what happened to inflation:
here is what the Fed did:
September 12, 2025 at 9:08 AM
here is what the Fed did:
think we can call than an "escalation"
July 16, 2025 at 11:48 AM
think we can call than an "escalation"
"Many" FOMC participants think the tariff effect on the CPI has merely been delayed
July 10, 2025 at 8:10 AM
"Many" FOMC participants think the tariff effect on the CPI has merely been delayed
June 27, 2025 at 12:20 PM
The BIS says household inflation expectations have been sticky since the pandemic and, apparently, that's because central banks haven't spent enough time telling everyone how brilliant they are.
Like they need the encouragement...
Like they need the encouragement...
June 18, 2025 at 12:02 PM
The BIS says household inflation expectations have been sticky since the pandemic and, apparently, that's because central banks haven't spent enough time telling everyone how brilliant they are.
Like they need the encouragement...
Like they need the encouragement...
The World's greatest macro podcast is back. In this episode:
WHY THE FED HATES DONALD TRUMP
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6y4e...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
WHY THE FED HATES DONALD TRUMP
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6y4e...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
June 17, 2025 at 4:07 PM
The World's greatest macro podcast is back. In this episode:
WHY THE FED HATES DONALD TRUMP
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6y4e...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
WHY THE FED HATES DONALD TRUMP
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/6y4e...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
although they keep revising all the data - changing the trajectory and confusing BoE officials - it now looks like genuine cracks have appeared in UK payrolls
June 12, 2025 at 12:35 PM
although they keep revising all the data - changing the trajectory and confusing BoE officials - it now looks like genuine cracks have appeared in UK payrolls
Something has really gone very profoundly wrong in the UK
June 3, 2025 at 11:22 AM
Something has really gone very profoundly wrong in the UK
NEW episode of our podcast, where we break the first rule of the TACO trade, by talking about the TACO trade.
don't let this guy know...
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0wfd...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
don't let this guy know...
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0wfd...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
June 3, 2025 at 9:14 AM
NEW episode of our podcast, where we break the first rule of the TACO trade, by talking about the TACO trade.
don't let this guy know...
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0wfd...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
don't let this guy know...
spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/0wfd...
apple: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
central bank equivalent of moving to the Saudi league?
May 28, 2025 at 8:40 AM
central bank equivalent of moving to the Saudi league?
Trump said WHAT about Apple and EU tariffs?
May 23, 2025 at 2:33 PM
Trump said WHAT about Apple and EU tariffs?
this guy......... 🙄
May 20, 2025 at 1:13 PM
this guy......... 🙄
According to Goldman, the Budget bill is a 0.4% additional fiscal easing. Not going to move the dial on GDP or inflation. (Yes its TRILLIONS over 10 years vs a totally false counterfactual where tax rates jumped massively.. but did anyone really think that would happen?!)
May 20, 2025 at 1:03 PM
According to Goldman, the Budget bill is a 0.4% additional fiscal easing. Not going to move the dial on GDP or inflation. (Yes its TRILLIONS over 10 years vs a totally false counterfactual where tax rates jumped massively.. but did anyone really think that would happen?!)
Important Fed study showing evidence of de-dollarization in Chinese bank lending. When Chinese banks lend to other EMs, they are now doing so in RMB
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
May 19, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Important Fed study showing evidence of de-dollarization in Chinese bank lending. When Chinese banks lend to other EMs, they are now doing so in RMB
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note...
guess we already have an answer:
May 13, 2025 at 11:08 AM
guess we already have an answer:
please make it stop
May 13, 2025 at 9:15 AM
please make it stop
9) Finally, there is a credit angle. Global trade needs funding. According to the IMF, banks provide $10 trillion in loans to keep the system going. Uncertainty, sudden stops, and plunging revenues could cut off the supply of credit, providing another source of reflexivity...
May 9, 2025 at 8:00 AM
9) Finally, there is a credit angle. Global trade needs funding. According to the IMF, banks provide $10 trillion in loans to keep the system going. Uncertainty, sudden stops, and plunging revenues could cut off the supply of credit, providing another source of reflexivity...