Daniel Alpert
@danielalpert.bsky.social
Executive Chairman, Westwood Capital LLC; Adjunct Professor and Fellow in Macroeconomics and Finance, Cornell Law School; Author of "The Age of Oversupply;" Co-founder and Chief Economist of Facent; Father and Step-father to six amazing children.
AI killing jobs?
See this response from a not-too-complex task I asked from the "powerful" Perplexity engine.
It bullshitted!
I then asked it to perform the same function using its Deep Research setting and it admitted it could not becasue of the Fed required API authentication.
AI is not there yet!
See this response from a not-too-complex task I asked from the "powerful" Perplexity engine.
It bullshitted!
I then asked it to perform the same function using its Deep Research setting and it admitted it could not becasue of the Fed required API authentication.
AI is not there yet!
July 6, 2025 at 6:11 PM
AI killing jobs?
See this response from a not-too-complex task I asked from the "powerful" Perplexity engine.
It bullshitted!
I then asked it to perform the same function using its Deep Research setting and it admitted it could not becasue of the Fed required API authentication.
AI is not there yet!
See this response from a not-too-complex task I asked from the "powerful" Perplexity engine.
It bullshitted!
I then asked it to perform the same function using its Deep Research setting and it admitted it could not becasue of the Fed required API authentication.
AI is not there yet!
Dear Media,
WTI Crude in the mid-to-low $70s does not constitute an oil spike or a "surge in energy prices." At worst it is a reversion to the mean. But after adjustment for inflation, it is just plain cheap, historically.
Just have a bunch of futures traders ginning up some vol.
WTI Crude in the mid-to-low $70s does not constitute an oil spike or a "surge in energy prices." At worst it is a reversion to the mean. But after adjustment for inflation, it is just plain cheap, historically.
Just have a bunch of futures traders ginning up some vol.
June 23, 2025 at 11:57 AM
Dear Media,
WTI Crude in the mid-to-low $70s does not constitute an oil spike or a "surge in energy prices." At worst it is a reversion to the mean. But after adjustment for inflation, it is just plain cheap, historically.
Just have a bunch of futures traders ginning up some vol.
WTI Crude in the mid-to-low $70s does not constitute an oil spike or a "surge in energy prices." At worst it is a reversion to the mean. But after adjustment for inflation, it is just plain cheap, historically.
Just have a bunch of futures traders ginning up some vol.
And the basis trade is collapsing, leading funds to repay JP¥ based lines as they bail out of $ stocks and bonds. The yen is strengthening to a point where it will cause export problems for Japan, too, on top of the #Trumpiffs. The BOJ will be under pressure to intervene here>>
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
And the basis trade is collapsing, leading funds to repay JP¥ based lines as they bail out of $ stocks and bonds. The yen is strengthening to a point where it will cause export problems for Japan, too, on top of the #Trumpiffs. The BOJ will be under pressure to intervene here>>
Overnight, China allowed the Yuan trading band to widen to 7.35. The 84% retaliatory tariff from China is nothing compared to this resounding shot across the bow. They are signaling intent here: to use their fully controlled currency to force open export markets. >>
April 9, 2025 at 12:34 PM
Overnight, China allowed the Yuan trading band to widen to 7.35. The 84% retaliatory tariff from China is nothing compared to this resounding shot across the bow. They are signaling intent here: to use their fully controlled currency to force open export markets. >>
A year of market gains wiped off the board.
Yep. Only HE can do it.
Yep. Only HE can do it.
April 4, 2025 at 7:18 PM
A year of market gains wiped off the board.
Yep. Only HE can do it.
Yep. Only HE can do it.
A good day to recall this bit of wisdom (on 9/11 Memorial):
April 3, 2025 at 5:22 PM
A good day to recall this bit of wisdom (on 9/11 Memorial):
Near the top of Trump's tariff menu is Fiji. Presumably so because of the vast US imports of WATER from that island manufacturing behemoth. Need to protect American water bottling jobs?
Make America Wet Again!
#MAWA ha-ha-ha
Make America Wet Again!
#MAWA ha-ha-ha
April 3, 2025 at 11:36 AM
Near the top of Trump's tariff menu is Fiji. Presumably so because of the vast US imports of WATER from that island manufacturing behemoth. Need to protect American water bottling jobs?
Make America Wet Again!
#MAWA ha-ha-ha
Make America Wet Again!
#MAWA ha-ha-ha
Since President Lame Brain did his thing yesterday, the US$ has tanked against all major currencies. Yet crude oil, a $-based commodity, has - counterintuitively - also cratered, just when those long oil should be asking more for it in the now-weaker $. Why?
A: Recession risks now loom far larger.
A: Recession risks now loom far larger.
April 3, 2025 at 11:04 AM
Since President Lame Brain did his thing yesterday, the US$ has tanked against all major currencies. Yet crude oil, a $-based commodity, has - counterintuitively - also cratered, just when those long oil should be asking more for it in the now-weaker $. Why?
A: Recession risks now loom far larger.
A: Recession risks now loom far larger.
The Trump Stock Market
March 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The Trump Stock Market
After averaging between 30K and 60K per month, the Challenger corporate layoff number for last month (and this does not include government jobs) skyrockets to 172,100. Canary in the coal mine?
March 6, 2025 at 1:07 PM
After averaging between 30K and 60K per month, the Challenger corporate layoff number for last month (and this does not include government jobs) skyrockets to 172,100. Canary in the coal mine?
And they said Biden has lost it...
#Gaz-a-lago
#Gaz-a-lago
February 5, 2025 at 1:03 PM
And they said Biden has lost it...
#Gaz-a-lago
#Gaz-a-lago
Old enough to remember what I just found in the back of a drawer?
Old enough to have used one?
Old enough to have used one?
January 27, 2025 at 9:44 PM
Old enough to remember what I just found in the back of a drawer?
Old enough to have used one?
Old enough to have used one?
Oh those adorable little Republicans.
"That silly debt ceiling only applies to Democratic administrations, 😉."
"That silly debt ceiling only applies to Democratic administrations, 😉."
January 14, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Oh those adorable little Republicans.
"That silly debt ceiling only applies to Democratic administrations, 😉."
"That silly debt ceiling only applies to Democratic administrations, 😉."
Los Angeles is burning fiercely and tomorrow the winds are slated to pick up again. Risk of flames in the east and north hills being blown west down the canyons and into the flatlands of the basin. The Palisades fire has extended as far as Malibu now.
Getting worse 🥵. www.fire.ca.gov/incidents
Getting worse 🥵. www.fire.ca.gov/incidents
January 9, 2025 at 3:22 AM
Los Angeles is burning fiercely and tomorrow the winds are slated to pick up again. Risk of flames in the east and north hills being blown west down the canyons and into the flatlands of the basin. The Palisades fire has extended as far as Malibu now.
Getting worse 🥵. www.fire.ca.gov/incidents
Getting worse 🥵. www.fire.ca.gov/incidents
Fears of a deflationary spiral in China have sent yields on its bonds crashing, just as US yields have been rising due to inflation fears associated with the incoming Trump administration. But there is inconsistency here. Deflation in China will temper the US inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs>>
January 8, 2025 at 1:35 PM
Fears of a deflationary spiral in China have sent yields on its bonds crashing, just as US yields have been rising due to inflation fears associated with the incoming Trump administration. But there is inconsistency here. Deflation in China will temper the US inflationary impact of Trump's tariffs>>
A perfect Thanksgiving Weekend autumn scape in New York's Central Park.
November 29, 2024 at 3:05 PM
A perfect Thanksgiving Weekend autumn scape in New York's Central Park.
A rainy morning in NYC preparing for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Especially in these times, giving thanks for that which we have been blessed with is a worthy ideal. Making things better, even more so.
(The incoming turkey-in-chief's hotel to the upper left of the photo.)
(The incoming turkey-in-chief's hotel to the upper left of the photo.)
November 28, 2024 at 1:05 PM
A rainy morning in NYC preparing for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Especially in these times, giving thanks for that which we have been blessed with is a worthy ideal. Making things better, even more so.
(The incoming turkey-in-chief's hotel to the upper left of the photo.)
(The incoming turkey-in-chief's hotel to the upper left of the photo.)
The Secretary of Education!
November 20, 2024 at 2:29 AM
The Secretary of Education!
The Clown Car Cabinet....
....Circus returns to Washington January 20th!
Make America the Greatest Show on Earth!
....Circus returns to Washington January 20th!
Make America the Greatest Show on Earth!
November 19, 2024 at 10:03 PM
The Clown Car Cabinet....
....Circus returns to Washington January 20th!
Make America the Greatest Show on Earth!
....Circus returns to Washington January 20th!
Make America the Greatest Show on Earth!
Nixon ordered Attorney General Mitchell to go slow on desegregation of schools in the South, in fulfillment of Nixon's "Southern Strategy" which of focused on gaining support from Southern white voters.
Trump will order Gaetz to execute his deportation and border plans similarly.
Trump will order Gaetz to execute his deportation and border plans similarly.
November 14, 2024 at 9:09 PM
Nixon ordered Attorney General Mitchell to go slow on desegregation of schools in the South, in fulfillment of Nixon's "Southern Strategy" which of focused on gaining support from Southern white voters.
Trump will order Gaetz to execute his deportation and border plans similarly.
Trump will order Gaetz to execute his deportation and border plans similarly.