Henry Curr
curr.bsky.social
Henry Curr
@curr.bsky.social
Economics editor @TheEconomist. Visiting Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford. Views mine only. www.henrycurr.com
The UK has the most progressive tax system in the developed world, argues @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

As @duncanrobinson.bsky.social wrote for @economist.com, the Tories created "an unbelievably progressive tax system".

on.ft.com/3JPv6dP
economist.com/britain/2025...
November 21, 2025 at 10:14 AM
If you think inflation was "truly transitory", do you think that interest rates should have followed the June 2021 SEP, which projected they would still be at 0.6% at the end of 2023 on the basis of the "transitory" theory?
Or even 1.6% at the end of 2023, which was the December 2021 SEP view?
November 6, 2025 at 7:45 PM
I agree with @marketscalpel.bsky.social , @martinsandbu.ft.com . The trust fund outgoings aren't interest. However, for argument's sake, this metric is still going way out of historical bounds:
October 23, 2025 at 6:42 PM
Federal net interest payments minus Fed profits is already the highest on a record going back to 1962
October 23, 2025 at 4:15 PM
"Stop worrying about public debt" says @martinsandbu.ft.com, citing US gross federal interest payments / GDP as being in the middle of the historical range.
But that measure includes interest the govt pays to itself.
Net interest / GDP is near historical highs. And then look at the forecast...
October 23, 2025 at 11:20 AM
April 17, 2025 at 8:28 AM
Trade deficits just don’t measure what President Trump thinks they do. Why the tariffs are among the most profound and harmful economic policy mistakes of the modern era ⬇️
April 6, 2025 at 11:53 AM
You're right at market exchange-rates. But (most people think) the market exchange rates, ie dollar strength, reflect US hegemony, so the logic is circular. At PPP the decline is clear
March 27, 2025 at 12:57 PM
If the ageing population was the first budget shock for which British politics was unprepared, the next is the loss of the peace dividend:
February 18, 2025 at 9:35 AM
The earlier working paper was the most striking bit of research we reported on our cover in 2019.

"Inequality could be lower than you think"
www.economist.com/leaders/2019...
"Economist are rethinking the numbers on inequality"
www.economist.com/briefing/201...

(Second piece more technical.)
November 19, 2023 at 4:44 PM
Economists Gerald Auten and David Splinter find essentially *no change* in the share of income, after tax, going to America's top 1% since the 1960s. It's forthcoming in one of the top 5 economics journals (JPE).

Ie, one of the ideas behind a lot of 2010s political discourse could be wrong.
November 19, 2023 at 4:42 PM