Scott Tilley
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coastal8049.bsky.social
Scott Tilley
@coastal8049.bsky.social
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Yeap, one was active this morning :-)
November 14, 2025 at 8:52 PM
There could be another lunar encounter in April of 2026 and after that things get really unstable. We're now in a very chaotic realm where CHANDRAYAAN 3 service module could end up in solar orbit or impacting the Moon or even Earth.

See alt text for state vector.🛑
November 14, 2025 at 3:07 AM
The best I can tell there was no burn and this seems corroborated by @ISRO's statement below. The orbit wandered close enough to the Moon in early November 2025 that the Moon’s gravity took over. This wasn’t an intentional manoeuvre, it was natural 3-body drift.⬇️
November 14, 2025 at 3:07 AM
Here's an Earth centred J2000 equatorial state vector for DRO-B:
2025-11-11T00:45:50.816
x= 213253.13473
y=-74960.25633
z=-77939.72821 km
vx=-0.034651
vy=0.84254
vz=1.05605 km/s
🛑
November 11, 2025 at 1:55 AM
TIANWEN-2 is presently about 36 million km from Earth and out aheard of us and will rendezvous with asteroid 469219 Kamoʻoalewa in July of 2026. 🛑
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 PM
TIANWEN-2 doesn't emit much on X-band. It's theorized that it is using solar electric propulsion (SEP) to some extent and not aiming at Earth all the time. I periodically check in on it and plot it's heard position since recovery in late August 2025. ⬇️
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 PM
Earlier releases by CNSA indicated that the burn would happen on 2025-10-30. So it could have already occurred earlier today or will be conducted as TW-2 comes into view of China later today. ⬇️
October 30, 2025 at 7:51 PM
DRO-B performed a burn a couple days prior to 2025-09-18. I think the asteroid observers just didn't put it together until later. In the coming days I'll confirm with X-band observations.
October 30, 2025 at 7:27 PM
Sorry typo 2025 US6 not 2015 US6.
October 30, 2025 at 3:41 AM
DRO-B is spending most of it's time at southern declinations and will only briefly poke its nose up north during perigee. But it will be well placed for observation when it does over head of me. 🛑
October 30, 2025 at 3:36 AM
DRO-B is in a ~5:3 lunar-resonant HEO with the following parameters:
a=271,253 km,
i=28.1 deg,
e=0.4435,
Rp=150,940 km,
Ra=391,566 km,
T=16.27 days.

The orbit is stable based on propagation with GMAT through 2030. ⬇️
October 30, 2025 at 3:36 AM
This is a Walker-Delta constellation which still has missing planes but complete global coverage.

The plot below provides an analysis of the heard vs. unheard objects and the respective positions of the active orbital planes.
🛑
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satelli...
October 20, 2025 at 5:38 AM
October 19, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Now you can explore the dataset. Use the 'h' command to find out about the other features of STRF. Rfplot will output various data files as .dat files that can by analyzed in rffit should you want to explore more.

The dataset involves almost 14 days of continuous data.⬇️
October 19, 2025 at 11:45 PM