@climatesciencenerd.bsky.social
When do you think the PDO will turn positive, further, or even still faster increasing global surface temperature?
December 14, 2025 at 4:54 PM
When do you think the PDO will turn positive, further, or even still faster increasing global surface temperature?
So if La Nina takes ~0.1C off,
we are at ~1.6C neutral, meaning your Paper is ~1.6C/~1.4C = 1.15, i.e. almost 15% behind the real warming already, after only 3 years of its first publication, assuming the ~1.4C refers to neutral conditions.
Maybe your aerosol cooling model is just not accurate
we are at ~1.6C neutral, meaning your Paper is ~1.6C/~1.4C = 1.15, i.e. almost 15% behind the real warming already, after only 3 years of its first publication, assuming the ~1.4C refers to neutral conditions.
Maybe your aerosol cooling model is just not accurate
December 2, 2025 at 11:22 PM
So if La Nina takes ~0.1C off,
we are at ~1.6C neutral, meaning your Paper is ~1.6C/~1.4C = 1.15, i.e. almost 15% behind the real warming already, after only 3 years of its first publication, assuming the ~1.4C refers to neutral conditions.
Maybe your aerosol cooling model is just not accurate
we are at ~1.6C neutral, meaning your Paper is ~1.6C/~1.4C = 1.15, i.e. almost 15% behind the real warming already, after only 3 years of its first publication, assuming the ~1.4C refers to neutral conditions.
Maybe your aerosol cooling model is just not accurate
With a La Niña...we are in deep trouble
November 16, 2025 at 8:17 PM
With a La Niña...we are in deep trouble
So basically despite a weakening AMOC and a La Nina, we are on the same level as 10 years ago. La Nina/El Nino difference should be what.. 0.3-0.5C? That's just a lot..
November 4, 2025 at 5:24 PM
So basically despite a weakening AMOC and a La Nina, we are on the same level as 10 years ago. La Nina/El Nino difference should be what.. 0.3-0.5C? That's just a lot..
I guess, he didn't account for the lack of heat transported by the AMOC and the negative cloud feedback, I believe Jennifer Francis described, which came about due to more open water. The melt is greatly determined by the amount of sunshine up their in any given year (Thanks, Arctic sea ice forum😁)
October 16, 2025 at 8:32 PM
I guess, he didn't account for the lack of heat transported by the AMOC and the negative cloud feedback, I believe Jennifer Francis described, which came about due to more open water. The melt is greatly determined by the amount of sunshine up their in any given year (Thanks, Arctic sea ice forum😁)
So that would mean Hansen et al. were right all along and the massive EEI will prevent any significant drop below 1.5C
October 3, 2025 at 9:37 PM
So that would mean Hansen et al. were right all along and the massive EEI will prevent any significant drop below 1.5C
I lile this data-presentation-idea. Even in a 1.3C year, there is that small chance for a day above 1.5, and then the Gauß-curve shifts that little bit more and boom, hundred+ days over the mark and you can see that very well in this way :)
October 3, 2025 at 9:35 PM
I lile this data-presentation-idea. Even in a 1.3C year, there is that small chance for a day above 1.5, and then the Gauß-curve shifts that little bit more and boom, hundred+ days over the mark and you can see that very well in this way :)
The icy breath of the weakening AMOC is at the back spinning the climate-8-ball...
I think there was a study how much sea ice has not melted due to the already weakened AMOC, quite substantial amount
I think there was a study how much sea ice has not melted due to the already weakened AMOC, quite substantial amount
September 9, 2025 at 9:20 PM
The icy breath of the weakening AMOC is at the back spinning the climate-8-ball...
I think there was a study how much sea ice has not melted due to the already weakened AMOC, quite substantial amount
I think there was a study how much sea ice has not melted due to the already weakened AMOC, quite substantial amount
When will it turn around?
August 28, 2025 at 5:00 AM
When will it turn around?
So this means that, as we are cleaning up aerosols, zhhey will turn positive,further accelerating/driving global warming?
August 15, 2025 at 7:51 AM
So this means that, as we are cleaning up aerosols, zhhey will turn positive,further accelerating/driving global warming?
I always sigh and feel an uncomfortable sense of forboding when I think about that ruddy climate-8-ball.. I wish it would stop spinning😄
August 10, 2025 at 4:58 PM
I always sigh and feel an uncomfortable sense of forboding when I think about that ruddy climate-8-ball.. I wish it would stop spinning😄
So...when this turns positive...then what? Is there any indication when it will?
August 9, 2025 at 10:26 AM
So...when this turns positive...then what? Is there any indication when it will?
I always wondered if we would still have satellites to observe an ice free arctic when it is ultimately arrives...
It's all playing out in real time
It's all playing out in real time
August 8, 2025 at 9:22 PM
I always wondered if we would still have satellites to observe an ice free arctic when it is ultimately arrives...
It's all playing out in real time
It's all playing out in real time
One problem with that argument: Actual data, not emission scenarios but Nasa Ceres data concerning the radiation budget of earth is -above- the high emission scenarios
July 31, 2025 at 4:41 PM
One problem with that argument: Actual data, not emission scenarios but Nasa Ceres data concerning the radiation budget of earth is -above- the high emission scenarios
Dear Prof Hansen, thank you for your tireless efforts, your well written papers, and all the information, knowledge, and even wisdom you brought to the world. I wish you and all those surrounding you nothing but the best.
May 23, 2025 at 7:02 AM
Dear Prof Hansen, thank you for your tireless efforts, your well written papers, and all the information, knowledge, and even wisdom you brought to the world. I wish you and all those surrounding you nothing but the best.
Hello Eliot, I can't find the original paper, could you share link to it if you do? Thanks
May 14, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Hello Eliot, I can't find the original paper, could you share link to it if you do? Thanks
Bloody hell!!!! That is absolutely wild. Something is off big time
May 14, 2025 at 9:25 AM
Bloody hell!!!! That is absolutely wild. Something is off big time
How safe is it to assume that we'll be ahead of the 2031/2037 schedule?
I think probability is greater than 66%
I think probability is greater than 66%
May 10, 2025 at 1:01 PM
How safe is it to assume that we'll be ahead of the 2031/2037 schedule?
I think probability is greater than 66%
I think probability is greater than 66%
Think about that...
Whenever you would have performed that measurement in millions of years, no matter what day, what weather, how you felt, how the stars aligned, this value would never have shown up. (Barring a volcano eruption close by maybe)
It's quite hard hitting, the immensity of time
Whenever you would have performed that measurement in millions of years, no matter what day, what weather, how you felt, how the stars aligned, this value would never have shown up. (Barring a volcano eruption close by maybe)
It's quite hard hitting, the immensity of time
April 28, 2025 at 7:52 PM
Think about that...
Whenever you would have performed that measurement in millions of years, no matter what day, what weather, how you felt, how the stars aligned, this value would never have shown up. (Barring a volcano eruption close by maybe)
It's quite hard hitting, the immensity of time
Whenever you would have performed that measurement in millions of years, no matter what day, what weather, how you felt, how the stars aligned, this value would never have shown up. (Barring a volcano eruption close by maybe)
It's quite hard hitting, the immensity of time
Italy, Spain, and Greece are already dealing with extreme heat and incredible flooding. I wonder..
With the NA, there was a lag of about 3 years (2020 to 2023) I seem to remember a paper describing this lag as expected. How long do you think it will take before effects become visible in the Med.Sea?
With the NA, there was a lag of about 3 years (2020 to 2023) I seem to remember a paper describing this lag as expected. How long do you think it will take before effects become visible in the Med.Sea?
April 17, 2025 at 5:17 AM
Italy, Spain, and Greece are already dealing with extreme heat and incredible flooding. I wonder..
With the NA, there was a lag of about 3 years (2020 to 2023) I seem to remember a paper describing this lag as expected. How long do you think it will take before effects become visible in the Med.Sea?
With the NA, there was a lag of about 3 years (2020 to 2023) I seem to remember a paper describing this lag as expected. How long do you think it will take before effects become visible in the Med.Sea?
Hansen et al. is right. That is all. This is no exception but will continue.
April 15, 2025 at 6:13 PM
Hansen et al. is right. That is all. This is no exception but will continue.
This is one of those things that absolutely would happen anyway the way things ate going, I've known that for years, and I still feel bad reading it materializing ever more clearly.
April 15, 2025 at 3:57 PM
This is one of those things that absolutely would happen anyway the way things ate going, I've known that for years, and I still feel bad reading it materializing ever more clearly.
Increasing the heating of the planet so fast that it keeps up with T^4 of Planck's law is an amazing spectacle, bloody hell.
March 27, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Increasing the heating of the planet so fast that it keeps up with T^4 of Planck's law is an amazing spectacle, bloody hell.
Dear Prof Rahmstorf,
will this dynamic sea level rise materialize over the same timescales as the collapse of the AMOC, i.e. 10-100years?
will this dynamic sea level rise materialize over the same timescales as the collapse of the AMOC, i.e. 10-100years?
March 25, 2025 at 8:37 AM
Dear Prof Rahmstorf,
will this dynamic sea level rise materialize over the same timescales as the collapse of the AMOC, i.e. 10-100years?
will this dynamic sea level rise materialize over the same timescales as the collapse of the AMOC, i.e. 10-100years?
Hey Eliot,
I'd like to be in the starter pack!
I'd like to be in the starter pack!
March 22, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Hey Eliot,
I'd like to be in the starter pack!
I'd like to be in the starter pack!