@climateer.bsky.social
Fast scenario: capabilities still jagged, but AIs handle so much R&D grunt work that the number of experiments skyrockets & we stumble into major breakthroughs, addressing continuous learning, tasks requiring external context, & long-horizon planning. 2025 still not Year of the Agent, but 2026 is.
January 6, 2025 at 4:50 AM
Fast scenario: capabilities still jagged, but AIs handle so much R&D grunt work that the number of experiments skyrockets & we stumble into major breakthroughs, addressing continuous learning, tasks requiring external context, & long-horizon planning. 2025 still not Year of the Agent, but 2026 is.
Slow scenario: scaling continues, but slowly. Inference-time compute bears fruit, but models still struggle with some tasks. AIs accelerate *some* aspects of AI R&D, but Amdahl's Law kicks in to limit the overall impact. 2025 is predicted to be the Year of the Agent, but this proves very premature.
January 6, 2025 at 4:48 AM
Slow scenario: scaling continues, but slowly. Inference-time compute bears fruit, but models still struggle with some tasks. AIs accelerate *some* aspects of AI R&D, but Amdahl's Law kicks in to limit the overall impact. 2025 is predicted to be the Year of the Agent, but this proves very premature.
This is not temporary! AI is going to keep advancing, it'll always have uneven capabilities (so do we!), and some people will continue to be more comfortable trying new things. Spotting ways of connecting AI strengths to important problems will continue to be a source of value.
December 16, 2024 at 12:52 AM
This is not temporary! AI is going to keep advancing, it'll always have uneven capabilities (so do we!), and some people will continue to be more comfortable trying new things. Spotting ways of connecting AI strengths to important problems will continue to be a source of value.
tbc, I'm referring to there being many reasonable-seeming people who are fairly confident AGI is near, and also many who are fairly confident it is not. I can't recall the last time we've had such legitimate and profound uncertainty over such a titanically important question of fact.)
November 26, 2024 at 7:56 PM
tbc, I'm referring to there being many reasonable-seeming people who are fairly confident AGI is near, and also many who are fairly confident it is not. I can't recall the last time we've had such legitimate and profound uncertainty over such a titanically important question of fact.)
When you see someone argue for a position, ask: what must the writer believe about these questions, in order for their position to make sense? When you see disagreement: are the two sides discussing differing versions of reality? A functional debate must address the underlying questions of fact.
November 20, 2024 at 10:57 PM
When you see someone argue for a position, ask: what must the writer believe about these questions, in order for their position to make sense? When you see disagreement: are the two sides discussing differing versions of reality? A functional debate must address the underlying questions of fact.
The fundamental questions often boil down to: how quickly will AI impact the world? Could disaster arise without warning? Is international cooperation feasible? Will we be safer in unipolar or multipolar worlds? Should AIs have rights?
November 20, 2024 at 10:57 PM
The fundamental questions often boil down to: how quickly will AI impact the world? Could disaster arise without warning? Is international cooperation feasible? Will we be safer in unipolar or multipolar worlds? Should AIs have rights?