Dave Jones
@cleanpowerdave.bsky.social
Build clean power + electrify⚡️ Chief analyst and co-founder of @ember-energy.org. Electricity analyst since 2000, still learning;)
And the same for Lao... 2GW in a month is huge...
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
And the same for Lao... 2GW in a month is huge...
The surge in The Philippines is very new... maybe an assembly plant has just opened?...
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
The surge in The Philippines is very new... maybe an assembly plant has just opened?...
Indonesia imported 3GW of cells (and 0.5GW of wafers).
These solar panels are primarily for export, to countries with Chinese tariffs. Over half the value is in assembly, so this isn't quite as disingenuous as it might appear.
It means countries with China tariffs can still import cheap panels.
These solar panels are primarily for export, to countries with Chinese tariffs. Over half the value is in assembly, so this isn't quite as disingenuous as it might appear.
It means countries with China tariffs can still import cheap panels.
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Indonesia imported 3GW of cells (and 0.5GW of wafers).
These solar panels are primarily for export, to countries with Chinese tariffs. Over half the value is in assembly, so this isn't quite as disingenuous as it might appear.
It means countries with China tariffs can still import cheap panels.
These solar panels are primarily for export, to countries with Chinese tariffs. Over half the value is in assembly, so this isn't quite as disingenuous as it might appear.
It means countries with China tariffs can still import cheap panels.
India: in October alone, India imported 4GW of wafers and 5GW of cells.
That follows a huge surge in manufacturing capacity to reshore panel assembly from China. There is a huge investment happening now to increase domestic cell production to reshore that as well.
That follows a huge surge in manufacturing capacity to reshore panel assembly from China. There is a huge investment happening now to increase domestic cell production to reshore that as well.
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
India: in October alone, India imported 4GW of wafers and 5GW of cells.
That follows a huge surge in manufacturing capacity to reshore panel assembly from China. There is a huge investment happening now to increase domestic cell production to reshore that as well.
That follows a huge surge in manufacturing capacity to reshore panel assembly from China. There is a huge investment happening now to increase domestic cell production to reshore that as well.
...and here for wafers...
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
...and here for wafers...
That's because of a rise in imports in 4 countries... here for cells...
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
That's because of a rise in imports in 4 countries... here for cells...
**NEW CHINA SOLAR EXPANSION STORY**
China has doubled the export of solar cells+wafers to assemble abroad in the last several months.
It still exports about the same amount of solar panels.
In October - for the first time - it exported more cell+wafers than panels 🧵
China has doubled the export of solar cells+wafers to assemble abroad in the last several months.
It still exports about the same amount of solar panels.
In October - for the first time - it exported more cell+wafers than panels 🧵
November 20, 2025 at 4:50 PM
**NEW CHINA SOLAR EXPANSION STORY**
China has doubled the export of solar cells+wafers to assemble abroad in the last several months.
It still exports about the same amount of solar panels.
In October - for the first time - it exported more cell+wafers than panels 🧵
China has doubled the export of solar cells+wafers to assemble abroad in the last several months.
It still exports about the same amount of solar panels.
In October - for the first time - it exported more cell+wafers than panels 🧵
NEW OCTOBER DATA: China exported a RECORD $7 billion of EVs
China export data for ALL countries and ALL cleantech products updated for October:
ember-energy.org/data/china-c...
China export data for ALL countries and ALL cleantech products updated for October:
ember-energy.org/data/china-c...
November 20, 2025 at 4:09 PM
NEW OCTOBER DATA: China exported a RECORD $7 billion of EVs
China export data for ALL countries and ALL cleantech products updated for October:
ember-energy.org/data/china-c...
China export data for ALL countries and ALL cleantech products updated for October:
ember-energy.org/data/china-c...
This summer, solar has been meeting about 10% of global electricity demand😎
November 20, 2025 at 9:27 AM
This summer, solar has been meeting about 10% of global electricity demand😎
66% of all solar and 69%(!) of all wind installed globally this year, will be installed in China🤯🇨🇳
November 19, 2025 at 1:11 PM
66% of all solar and 69%(!) of all wind installed globally this year, will be installed in China🤯🇨🇳
And here is the graphic for EV's. EV sales share in the CPS is "close" in 2050 to 2024 levels for all countries outside Europe+China.
November 12, 2025 at 4:39 PM
And here is the graphic for EV's. EV sales share in the CPS is "close" in 2050 to 2024 levels for all countries outside Europe+China.
Of course, the IEA has been politically compromised, so its press release is nothing mess of nothingness...
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Of course, the IEA has been politically compromised, so its press release is nothing mess of nothingness...
2. AI: Data centres account for over 50% of the rise in electricity demand in the US in the next decade..
..vs.. 20% for other advanced economies and less than 10% for China and emerging economies.
..vs.. 20% for other advanced economies and less than 10% for China and emerging economies.
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
2. AI: Data centres account for over 50% of the rise in electricity demand in the US in the next decade..
..vs.. 20% for other advanced economies and less than 10% for China and emerging economies.
..vs.. 20% for other advanced economies and less than 10% for China and emerging economies.
BUT The US is not the Rest of the World.
Why? Some useful insights from the WEO...
1. Economics: gas is cheaper and solar/wind is more expensive than elsewhere in the world.
Why? Some useful insights from the WEO...
1. Economics: gas is cheaper and solar/wind is more expensive than elsewhere in the world.
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
BUT The US is not the Rest of the World.
Why? Some useful insights from the WEO...
1. Economics: gas is cheaper and solar/wind is more expensive than elsewhere in the world.
Why? Some useful insights from the WEO...
1. Economics: gas is cheaper and solar/wind is more expensive than elsewhere in the world.
Whilst the US outlook has been downgraded this year, it has risen elsewhere...
For renewables:
Renewable capacity growth cut to 2030 by 45%(!)... but at the same time raises its forecast for EU, India, SE Asia AND Middle East... (I think this IEA Renewables holds for STEPS)
For renewables:
Renewable capacity growth cut to 2030 by 45%(!)... but at the same time raises its forecast for EU, India, SE Asia AND Middle East... (I think this IEA Renewables holds for STEPS)
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Whilst the US outlook has been downgraded this year, it has risen elsewhere...
For renewables:
Renewable capacity growth cut to 2030 by 45%(!)... but at the same time raises its forecast for EU, India, SE Asia AND Middle East... (I think this IEA Renewables holds for STEPS)
For renewables:
Renewable capacity growth cut to 2030 by 45%(!)... but at the same time raises its forecast for EU, India, SE Asia AND Middle East... (I think this IEA Renewables holds for STEPS)
I love this IEA factoid: 80% of global energy growth occurs in sunny regions.
They can cheaply leverage solar, now a dispatchable resource with batteries. The IEA shows global manufacturing overcapacity for solar and battery, showing a LOT of upside to solar growth💪
They can cheaply leverage solar, now a dispatchable resource with batteries. The IEA shows global manufacturing overcapacity for solar and battery, showing a LOT of upside to solar growth💪
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
I love this IEA factoid: 80% of global energy growth occurs in sunny regions.
They can cheaply leverage solar, now a dispatchable resource with batteries. The IEA shows global manufacturing overcapacity for solar and battery, showing a LOT of upside to solar growth💪
They can cheaply leverage solar, now a dispatchable resource with batteries. The IEA shows global manufacturing overcapacity for solar and battery, showing a LOT of upside to solar growth💪
And we know that 2025 annual installations will ALREADY by higher than in 2024 🤷♂️
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
And we know that 2025 annual installations will ALREADY by higher than in 2024 🤷♂️
YET... Even STEPS seems remarkably cautious.
STEPS is the floor not the ceiling.
It assumes solar and wind will continue building only slightly more annually than in 2024...
STEPS is the floor not the ceiling.
It assumes solar and wind will continue building only slightly more annually than in 2024...
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
YET... Even STEPS seems remarkably cautious.
STEPS is the floor not the ceiling.
It assumes solar and wind will continue building only slightly more annually than in 2024...
STEPS is the floor not the ceiling.
It assumes solar and wind will continue building only slightly more annually than in 2024...
The real news is the Renewables Revolution.
All scenarios - even the CPS - show the global electricity grid will double in the next 10 years🤯
All scenarios - even the CPS - show the global electricity grid will double in the next 10 years🤯
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
The real news is the Renewables Revolution.
All scenarios - even the CPS - show the global electricity grid will double in the next 10 years🤯
All scenarios - even the CPS - show the global electricity grid will double in the next 10 years🤯
The CPS shows oil demand does not peak in 2030 - and continues to rise.
NOTE: the FT headline falsely portrays this as "where we are heading".
NOTE: the FT headline falsely portrays this as "where we are heading".
November 12, 2025 at 7:59 AM
The CPS shows oil demand does not peak in 2030 - and continues to rise.
NOTE: the FT headline falsely portrays this as "where we are heading".
NOTE: the FT headline falsely portrays this as "where we are heading".
🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
November 12, 2025 at 6:10 AM
🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable?
ONE MORE DAY TO THE @IEA #WEO launch!
What does it mean? Get the sensible analysis here...
Register here: t.co/pVz2Bw4cHt
What does it mean? Get the sensible analysis here...
Register here: t.co/pVz2Bw4cHt
November 11, 2025 at 12:18 PM
ONE MORE DAY TO THE @IEA #WEO launch!
What does it mean? Get the sensible analysis here...
Register here: t.co/pVz2Bw4cHt
What does it mean? Get the sensible analysis here...
Register here: t.co/pVz2Bw4cHt
"Electricity is the ultimate perishable good"
No longer. Batteries will change the solar harvest, in the same way silos and refrigeration changed the food harvest... but over years, not decades 🔋🍏
"Silos for Sunshine": a great new thoughtpiece💡
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
No longer. Batteries will change the solar harvest, in the same way silos and refrigeration changed the food harvest... but over years, not decades 🔋🍏
"Silos for Sunshine": a great new thoughtpiece💡
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
October 31, 2025 at 9:06 AM
"Electricity is the ultimate perishable good"
No longer. Batteries will change the solar harvest, in the same way silos and refrigeration changed the food harvest... but over years, not decades 🔋🍏
"Silos for Sunshine": a great new thoughtpiece💡
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
No longer. Batteries will change the solar harvest, in the same way silos and refrigeration changed the food harvest... but over years, not decades 🔋🍏
"Silos for Sunshine": a great new thoughtpiece💡
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
There are LOTS (88!) more countries with potential for offshore wind --- which could lead to further growth in the future--
--including 9 who are already members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA)
--including 9 who are already members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA)
October 30, 2025 at 8:12 AM
There are LOTS (88!) more countries with potential for offshore wind --- which could lead to further growth in the future--
--including 9 who are already members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA)
--including 9 who are already members of the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA)
11 US state targets...
October 30, 2025 at 8:12 AM
11 US state targets...