Christopher Clary
@claryc.bsky.social
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University at Albany; Nonresident Fellow, Stimson Center
We might need to tweak a few things given an eventful several months, but pleased to announce Sameer Lalwani & my co-edited volume on Pakistani strategic debates is now forthcoming at @georgetownup.bsky.social . Thanks to @stimsoncenter.bsky.social & Smith Richardson Foundation for the support.
September 18, 2025 at 12:42 AM
We might need to tweak a few things given an eventful several months, but pleased to announce Sameer Lalwani & my co-edited volume on Pakistani strategic debates is now forthcoming at @georgetownup.bsky.social . Thanks to @stimsoncenter.bsky.social & Smith Richardson Foundation for the support.
I still have free eprints available for my article, "Is India underbalancing China?" I argue that it is hard to understand why India has been willing to make tangible concessions in its post-2020 bargaining with China except by looking at the military balance.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...
September 12, 2025 at 1:30 PM
I still have free eprints available for my article, "Is India underbalancing China?" I argue that it is hard to understand why India has been willing to make tangible concessions in its post-2020 bargaining with China except by looking at the military balance.
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...
www.tandfonline.com/eprint/CWRUD...
Time to put @jrovner.bsky.social 's book back on syllabi, if it wasn't there already.
August 22, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Time to put @jrovner.bsky.social 's book back on syllabi, if it wasn't there already.
This is a perfectly interesting little ethical topic, but I can't possibly understand why my human subjects training needs to talk about it before I can get permission to conduct a public opinion survey.
June 11, 2025 at 8:00 PM
This is a perfectly interesting little ethical topic, but I can't possibly understand why my human subjects training needs to talk about it before I can get permission to conduct a public opinion survey.
This article by Raag Yadava on the Indus Waters Treaty is worth your time. One small excerpt on the China angle. www.theindiaforum.in/internationa...
May 30, 2025 at 7:14 AM
This article by Raag Yadava on the Indus Waters Treaty is worth your time. One small excerpt on the China angle. www.theindiaforum.in/internationa...
A little over 6 years ago, Vipin Narang & I argued that better intelligence capabilities, more precise conventional and dual-use delivery vehicles, & improving air and missile defenses were combining to create “counterforce temptations” in the Indian system. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
May 28, 2025 at 6:28 PM
A little over 6 years ago, Vipin Narang & I argued that better intelligence capabilities, more precise conventional and dual-use delivery vehicles, & improving air and missile defenses were combining to create “counterforce temptations” in the Indian system. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...
New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
May 28, 2025 at 2:34 PM
New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...
“Are you afraid of ideologies?”
“A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause.
“Or even a lot.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause.
“Or even a lot.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
May 28, 2025 at 11:42 AM
“Are you afraid of ideologies?”
“A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause.
“Or even a lot.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause.
“Or even a lot.”
www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
“My view is that any time two nuclear-armed states start exchanging ordnance, the risk of nuclear war has increased over the pre-crisis baseline in some immeasurable manner: This is because of the essentially unpredictable character of warfare.” Well said, @nktpnd.bsky.social
May 25, 2025 at 7:44 AM
“My view is that any time two nuclear-armed states start exchanging ordnance, the risk of nuclear war has increased over the pre-crisis baseline in some immeasurable manner: This is because of the essentially unpredictable character of warfare.” Well said, @nktpnd.bsky.social
My article from Sunday's Times of India on this new era in the India-Pakistan rivalry.
May 13, 2025 at 9:11 AM
My article from Sunday's Times of India on this new era in the India-Pakistan rivalry.
My chart of subjective conflict risks in South Asia over the last 40 years or so.
May 13, 2025 at 9:10 AM
My chart of subjective conflict risks in South Asia over the last 40 years or so.
I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...
May 5, 2025 at 6:44 PM
I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...
The stand-off precision strike revolution is new. We don't have a huge dataset of what normal looks like in these tit-for-tat struggles. But based on the limited dataset that we do have, we are not out of the woods yet—and arguably are in the most dangerous part of the woods.
May 3, 2025 at 5:07 PM
The stand-off precision strike revolution is new. We don't have a huge dataset of what normal looks like in these tit-for-tat struggles. But based on the limited dataset that we do have, we are not out of the woods yet—and arguably are in the most dangerous part of the woods.
Dangerous days ahead in the subcontinent. I'm quite worried. My piece for @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/why-the...
April 24, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Dangerous days ahead in the subcontinent. I'm quite worried. My piece for @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/why-the...
What I'm worried/thinking about today regarding developments in India and Pakistan.
April 24, 2025 at 1:40 PM
What I'm worried/thinking about today regarding developments in India and Pakistan.
I've now re-posted a copy of my report for USIP last year on the 2021 Line of Control ceasefire. That 2021 ceasefire may also be a victim of yesterday's terror attack in Kashmir. (The USIP website was taken down along with USIP's demise.) www.christopherorenclary.com/uploads/3/9/...
April 23, 2025 at 11:57 AM
I've now re-posted a copy of my report for USIP last year on the 2021 Line of Control ceasefire. That 2021 ceasefire may also be a victim of yesterday's terror attack in Kashmir. (The USIP website was taken down along with USIP's demise.) www.christopherorenclary.com/uploads/3/9/...
In the last couple of years I've become increasingly worried India is not doing enough to deter China and to prepare to defeat China in a war if deterrence fails. I present my concerns in a new journal article out today in the Journal of Strategic Studies.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
April 14, 2025 at 3:42 PM
In the last couple of years I've become increasingly worried India is not doing enough to deter China and to prepare to defeat China in a war if deterrence fails. I present my concerns in a new journal article out today in the Journal of Strategic Studies.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
There's a lot going on in the world, but if you want my summary of the year that was in 2024 for India, it is available here (for free for the next 30 days). online.ucpress.edu/as/article/6...
April 5, 2025 at 8:08 PM
There's a lot going on in the world, but if you want my summary of the year that was in 2024 for India, it is available here (for free for the next 30 days). online.ucpress.edu/as/article/6...
Really good paragraph from Chris Twomey (in a 2021 volume) on how to think about the Chinese no-first-use (NFU) nuclear pledge. (Much of the same language applies to other NFUs).
March 27, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Really good paragraph from Chris Twomey (in a 2021 volume) on how to think about the Chinese no-first-use (NFU) nuclear pledge. (Much of the same language applies to other NFUs).
Didn't expect the substantive mentions of India in the US intelligence global threat briefing to be just as much about being a source of fentanyl as any other topic. One sentence suggests "state actor" direct or indirect involvement.
March 25, 2025 at 4:47 PM
Didn't expect the substantive mentions of India in the US intelligence global threat briefing to be just as much about being a source of fentanyl as any other topic. One sentence suggests "state actor" direct or indirect involvement.
Going back & reading a 2021 speech by Admiral Charles Richard where he says China was undertaking a "strategic breakout." What does that mean? Well, Admiral Richard said—in the same speech—there was no real definition, but it was a big deal. Feel like his staff failed him here.
March 25, 2025 at 3:34 PM
Going back & reading a 2021 speech by Admiral Charles Richard where he says China was undertaking a "strategic breakout." What does that mean? Well, Admiral Richard said—in the same speech—there was no real definition, but it was a big deal. Feel like his staff failed him here.
May still be some hangover in the bilateral relationship from a (prior?) period of more assertive Indian policy in Canada. (The Indian view is there is hangover in the relationship because Canada coddles, abets, & ignores anti-India radicals operating from Canadian soil.)
March 25, 2025 at 2:16 PM
May still be some hangover in the bilateral relationship from a (prior?) period of more assertive Indian policy in Canada. (The Indian view is there is hangover in the relationship because Canada coddles, abets, & ignores anti-India radicals operating from Canadian soil.)
The US is pushing hard for more agricultural imports in India. The problem is agriculture is a huge employer in India and it's not easy to imagine the already stressed Indian labor market finding new jobs for displaced farmers.
March 25, 2025 at 9:50 AM
The US is pushing hard for more agricultural imports in India. The problem is agriculture is a huge employer in India and it's not easy to imagine the already stressed Indian labor market finding new jobs for displaced farmers.
US rejections of student visa applications at a ten-year high. This pattern emerged before Trump, it bears emphasis.
March 24, 2025 at 5:53 AM
US rejections of student visa applications at a ten-year high. This pattern emerged before Trump, it bears emphasis.
One thing that distinguishes Vance is that he is smart enough to know foreign students subsidize American students at basically every university in America, but he is depraved enough to mislead his audience who he hopes doesn't know that.
March 21, 2025 at 10:57 AM
One thing that distinguishes Vance is that he is smart enough to know foreign students subsidize American students at basically every university in America, but he is depraved enough to mislead his audience who he hopes doesn't know that.