Chris Smith
@cjsmith.be
Climate scientist at Vrije Universiteit Brussel & IIASA. IPCC AR7 CLA. Responsive climate projections. The guy behind the fair model and radiative forcing barchart. Occasional runner and guitarist.
github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.eu
github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.eu
Cool, thanks Abby! I was aware of this paper but don't think I cited it (my bad) - the running to 2300 is there and we can compare the carbon sinks, but the experiments were concentration-driven, and didn't include the lower scenarios, and they don't have NorESM, which is a super interesting model!
November 8, 2025 at 5:47 PM
Cool, thanks Abby! I was aware of this paper but don't think I cited it (my bad) - the running to 2300 is there and we can compare the carbon sinks, but the experiments were concentration-driven, and didn't include the lower scenarios, and they don't have NorESM, which is a super interesting model!
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
November 7, 2025 at 12:16 PM
Unfortunately not. These were from the CMIP6 ESGF - was really a shame that not many models extended beyond 2100.
I should have known this...
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
October 28, 2025 at 4:31 PM
I should have known this...
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
There are 1.5°C no and low overshoot scenarios in AR5, but they are cooler in 2020 than we have observed, suggesting that mitigation would have started in the 2010s.
It would be good to do this consistently harmonized in the same simple climate model
yeh, precisely this! I mean, one of the successes of the Paris Agreement (or failure of pre-Paris climate policy?) is that nobody was really looking at 1.5°C scenarios before 2016. I'm just interested to see if anyone has done a like-for-like climate comparison. If not, I might :)
October 28, 2025 at 4:16 PM
yeh, precisely this! I mean, one of the successes of the Paris Agreement (or failure of pre-Paris climate policy?) is that nobody was really looking at 1.5°C scenarios before 2016. I'm just interested to see if anyone has done a like-for-like climate comparison. If not, I might :)
windows will restart now
October 12, 2025 at 9:30 PM
windows will restart now
I know!!! I was outvoted
September 18, 2025 at 11:24 AM
I know!!! I was outvoted
Belspo press release on the Belgian contribution to IPCC AR7:
FR: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
NL: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
EN: google translate ;)
FR: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
NL: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
EN: google translate ;)
Communiqué de presse | Belspo
Une fierté, mais aussi une responsabilité pour la Belgique
www.belspo.be
August 28, 2025 at 3:29 PM
Belspo press release on the Belgian contribution to IPCC AR7:
FR: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
NL: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
EN: google translate ;)
FR: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
NL: www.belspo.be/belspo/organ...
EN: google translate ;)
also very willing to help if you get stuck. Sorry the new interface is clunky - I went speed over intuition.
August 28, 2025 at 3:14 PM
also very willing to help if you get stuck. Sorry the new interface is clunky - I went speed over intuition.