CICERO Center for International Climate Research
@cicero.oslo.no
CICERO Center for International Climate Research is Norway’s foremost institute for interdisciplinary climate research.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*.
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
unfccc.int
November 23, 2025 at 8:18 PM
#cop30 decision's "recalling with concern" that "historical cumulative net carbon dioxide emissions account for at least four fifths of the total carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting global warming to 1.5C" was true *in 2019*.
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
It's now 94%, best guess. /1
unfccc.int/sites/defaul...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Now that we are likely to cross 1.5°C, there is increasing discussion on "overshoot".
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
November 24, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Now that we are likely to cross 1.5°C, there is increasing discussion on "overshoot".
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
There is a lot of uncertainties on overshoot, but there is one thing that we are 100% sure about:
GHG emissions need to go down >90% in decades for overshoot to be a reality.
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
hats-off to the small-but-mighty NorESM team, who have conceived of, planned, constructed, submitted and analyzed a multi-stage coupled PPE ("perturbed physics ensemble") -including every model component- in about two weeks flat. Some A-grade technical prowess/collaborative skillz going on over here
November 20, 2025 at 4:41 PM
hats-off to the small-but-mighty NorESM team, who have conceived of, planned, constructed, submitted and analyzed a multi-stage coupled PPE ("perturbed physics ensemble") -including every model component- in about two weeks flat. Some A-grade technical prowess/collaborative skillz going on over here
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
November 21, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Where are global CO2 emissions heading?
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Middle-of-the-road? But just because we have followed the SSP2-45, SSP4-60 path for 10 years, does not mean we follow it for the next 70 years.
Policy & technology have pushed the world away from the high-end, but 2.7C in 2100 & rising is not a good outcome!
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
The atmospheric increase of CH4 has returned to "normal" levels in the last couple of years, after big increases in 2020-2022.
The 2020-2022 increases were likely anomalies (COVID, weather), and not a change in trend.
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...
The 2020-2022 increases were likely anomalies (COVID, weather), and not a change in trend.
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...
November 20, 2025 at 11:44 AM
The atmospheric increase of CH4 has returned to "normal" levels in the last couple of years, after big increases in 2020-2022.
The 2020-2022 increases were likely anomalies (COVID, weather), and not a change in trend.
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...
The 2020-2022 increases were likely anomalies (COVID, weather), and not a change in trend.
gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
An interesting snippet of information...
Electricity generation from coal in India has dropped in the first 10 months of 2025, with renewables covering for all the growth in electricity use.
Noting, growth in electricity use is rather low...
More figures: robbieandrew.github.io/india/
Electricity generation from coal in India has dropped in the first 10 months of 2025, with renewables covering for all the growth in electricity use.
Noting, growth in electricity use is rather low...
More figures: robbieandrew.github.io/india/
November 20, 2025 at 11:39 AM
An interesting snippet of information...
Electricity generation from coal in India has dropped in the first 10 months of 2025, with renewables covering for all the growth in electricity use.
Noting, growth in electricity use is rather low...
More figures: robbieandrew.github.io/india/
Electricity generation from coal in India has dropped in the first 10 months of 2025, with renewables covering for all the growth in electricity use.
Noting, growth in electricity use is rather low...
More figures: robbieandrew.github.io/india/
"He's an expert on oceans, she's an expert on land processes, those two specialize in the atmosphere," Aas explains.
Each week, they gather digitally to discuss the globe—or more precisely, a representation of it. Together, they're developing a climate model.
Each week, they gather digitally to discuss the globe—or more precisely, a representation of it. Together, they're developing a climate model.
November 19, 2025 at 11:16 AM
"He's an expert on oceans, she's an expert on land processes, those two specialize in the atmosphere," Aas explains.
Each week, they gather digitally to discuss the globe—or more precisely, a representation of it. Together, they're developing a climate model.
Each week, they gather digitally to discuss the globe—or more precisely, a representation of it. Together, they're developing a climate model.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Global CO2 emissions are showing signs of levelling, thanks to a slight decline in net land-use change emissions offsetting continued growth in fossil emissions.
The trends are way off compared to the 1.5C scenarios with no or low overshoot assessed in the IPCC.
Details: bsky.app/profile/glen...
The trends are way off compared to the 1.5C scenarios with no or low overshoot assessed in the IPCC.
Details: bsky.app/profile/glen...
November 18, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Global CO2 emissions are showing signs of levelling, thanks to a slight decline in net land-use change emissions offsetting continued growth in fossil emissions.
The trends are way off compared to the 1.5C scenarios with no or low overshoot assessed in the IPCC.
Details: bsky.app/profile/glen...
The trends are way off compared to the 1.5C scenarios with no or low overshoot assessed in the IPCC.
Details: bsky.app/profile/glen...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Where we are in terms of achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals, where we need to go, and how to get there.
Interview with @rishpardikar.bsky.social
drilled.media/news/cop30-g...
Interview with @rishpardikar.bsky.social
drilled.media/news/cop30-g...
November 19, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Where we are in terms of achieving Paris Agreement temperature goals, where we need to go, and how to get there.
Interview with @rishpardikar.bsky.social
drilled.media/news/cop30-g...
Interview with @rishpardikar.bsky.social
drilled.media/news/cop30-g...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
The International Energy Agency (IEA) got plenty of critique for bringing back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS).
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
November 17, 2025 at 8:53 AM
The International Energy Agency (IEA) got plenty of critique for bringing back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS).
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
I think it was a good idea to bring back. Let me explain why...
1/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
It was great to visit @cicero.oslo.no where I presented and discussed my work on coalitions in EU environmental policy processes to the climate policy group! Thank you to Merethe Dotterud Leiren for the invitation!
#PhD #EU #environmentpolicy #coalitions
#PhD #EU #environmentpolicy #coalitions
November 14, 2025 at 9:15 AM
It was great to visit @cicero.oslo.no where I presented and discussed my work on coalitions in EU environmental policy processes to the climate policy group! Thank you to Merethe Dotterud Leiren for the invitation!
#PhD #EU #environmentpolicy #coalitions
#PhD #EU #environmentpolicy #coalitions
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
My fear is scientists will just sit by & be complicit. Saying you are for 1.5C or net zero is not ambition.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
Rich, historical polluter countries that had the highest legal responsibility to take climate action failed. And now some of these same countries are speaking about '1.5C ambition'. What a charade
November 15, 2025 at 8:03 AM
My fear is scientists will just sit by & be complicit. Saying you are for 1.5C or net zero is not ambition.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
If rich country GHG or CO2 emissions are not dropping at >5% per year, they are not remotely consistent with 1.5C, nor net zero in a reasonable time frame.
Scientists need to point this out.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
I've added a dropdown with a bunch of explanatory notes that might be helpful and/or interesting for folks checking out the data on my "car sales" page.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
November 16, 2025 at 11:03 AM
I've added a dropdown with a bunch of explanatory notes that might be helpful and/or interesting for folks checking out the data on my "car sales" page.
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
robbieandrew.github.io/carsales/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
"Women who face long-term heat exposure in workplaces and homes are finding it takes a heavy toll on their health and income." 🎁🔗
What’s More Dangerous Than India’s Frequent Heat Waves? Heat Stress.
www.nytimes.com
November 16, 2025 at 12:05 PM
"Women who face long-term heat exposure in workplaces and homes are finding it takes a heavy toll on their health and income." 🎁🔗
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
November 14, 2025 at 8:23 AM
If CO2 emissions go to zero in 2050 (top), the sinks (green) will bring atmospheric CO2 back down (middle), & temperature will stabalise at ~1.7°C (bottom).
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Going to zero today will keep us <1.5°C
Constant emissions leads to 2.6°C, rising rapidly thereafter.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
The thing that amazes me most about this figure is not the progress that we made from the blue line "where we were going", but that everyone seems to be having heart failure that the IEA made a scenario where emissions are flat, instead of falling 20% in 25 years...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
November 14, 2025 at 8:51 AM
The thing that amazes me most about this figure is not the progress that we made from the blue line "where we were going", but that everyone seems to be having heart failure that the IEA made a scenario where emissions are flat, instead of falling 20% in 25 years...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
www.axios.com/2025/11/13/c...
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Fossil CO2 emissions are still growing, in case you missed it...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
November 14, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Fossil CO2 emissions are still growing, in case you missed it...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
bsky.app/profile/glen...
Global fossil co₂ emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, and are now 10% higher than in 2015, ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted.
New figures confirm: Global fossil co₂ emissions continue a persistent rise
Global fossil co₂ emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, and are now 10% higher than in 2015, ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted.
cicero.oslo.no
November 13, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Global fossil co₂ emissions are projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, and are now 10% higher than in 2015, ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Global Carbon Budget 2025, released today.
1/2
To support this year's Global Carbon Budget, 2025, we are publishing
The big paper, made possible by the strong commitment of a core group of scientists, with @pfriedling.bsky.social at the lead, working with a network of equally committed contributors from 102 research organizations worldwide
To support this year's Global Carbon Budget, 2025, we are publishing
The big paper, made possible by the strong commitment of a core group of scientists, with @pfriedling.bsky.social at the lead, working with a network of equally committed contributors from 102 research organizations worldwide
November 13, 2025 at 6:39 AM
Global Carbon Budget 2025, released today.
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
November 13, 2025 at 7:07 AM
📢Global Carbon Budget 2025📢
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Fossil CO2 emissions continue to rise in 2025 while the terrestrial carbon sink recovers to pre-El Niño strength.
The key findings are covered in two reports this year:
* ESSDD (preprint): essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...
* Nature: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
1/
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
The IEA has brought back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) in the World Energy Outlook (WEO).
I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.
www.iea.org/reports/worl...
1/
I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.
www.iea.org/reports/worl...
1/
November 12, 2025 at 10:25 AM
The IEA has brought back the Current Policies Scenario (CPS) in the World Energy Outlook (WEO).
I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.
www.iea.org/reports/worl...
1/
I think this will be useful. Fossil CO2 emissions keep rising, when they should be falling. It is time to admit that. So I hope the CPS can help address this issue.
www.iea.org/reports/worl...
1/
Klimaendringer og rensing av luftforurensning gjør jordkloden mørkere
Jordkloden skinner svakere enn før
Nye satellittmålinger viser at jorda reflekterer mindre sollys. Hva skjer?
www.forskning.no
November 12, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Klimaendringer og rensing av luftforurensning gjør jordkloden mørkere
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Er du opptatt av å forstå det politiske Norge? Da vil du ikke gå glipp av lanseringen av verdens første Oxford oppslagsverk om norsk politikk! Kom til slippefesten 8. desember! @statsvitenskap.bsky.social
www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...
www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...
Forskere legger fram nytt verk om norsk politikk
- Institutt for statsvitenskap (ISV)
Dagens mindretallsregjering må manøvrere i et krevende politisk landskap, og blokkene i norsk politikk er i endring. Samtidig er de økonomiske rammene strammere. Stormaktrivalisering og nye internasjo...
www.sv.uio.no
November 11, 2025 at 12:48 PM
Er du opptatt av å forstå det politiske Norge? Da vil du ikke gå glipp av lanseringen av verdens første Oxford oppslagsverk om norsk politikk! Kom til slippefesten 8. desember! @statsvitenskap.bsky.social
www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...
www.sv.uio.no/isv/forsknin...
Den nordlige halvkule absorberer mer sollys enn den reflekterer ut i atmosfæren. @gunnarmy.bsky.social
Jordkloden skinner svakere enn før
Nye satellittmålinger viser at jorda reflekterer mindre sollys. Hva skjer?
www.forskning.no
November 11, 2025 at 10:09 AM
Den nordlige halvkule absorberer mer sollys enn den reflekterer ut i atmosfæren. @gunnarmy.bsky.social
Reposted by CICERO Center for International Climate Research
Diskusjonene om EUs klimamål ruller videre, helt parallelt med de internasjonale klimaforhandlingene. Nå har miljøkomiteen i Europaparlamentet gjort sitt vedtak, og kanskje er resultatet at EUs klimamål for 2035 faller innenfor intervallet Stortinget antok. 1/n
www.endseurope.com/article/1939...
www.endseurope.com/article/1939...
Environment committee backs 85% cut in EU emissions by 2040
The EU is set to quickly agree on a climate target for 2040, after the European Parliament’s environment committee approved a negotiating position that is largely in line with the changes backed by me...
www.endseurope.com
November 10, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Diskusjonene om EUs klimamål ruller videre, helt parallelt med de internasjonale klimaforhandlingene. Nå har miljøkomiteen i Europaparlamentet gjort sitt vedtak, og kanskje er resultatet at EUs klimamål for 2035 faller innenfor intervallet Stortinget antok. 1/n
www.endseurope.com/article/1939...
www.endseurope.com/article/1939...