And research shows us that cutting taxes on business profits (the biggest parts of OBBBA) does not trickle down

Fiscally, this is how I think of the OBBBA:
Big cuts for the poor paid for big tax cuts for the rich, which outnumber the tax cuts for everyone else

Speaker Johnson, incredibly, said that continuing the premium tax credits would be “subsidizing high-income earners.”

I have the receipts and its his 199A deduction that subsidizes high-earners. Premium tax credits do not.

New @americanprogress.bsky.social I find that 4.4 million small business owners and self-employed people face a $1,500 mean tax hike this year.

When enhanced marketplace tax credits expire, businesspeople making <$150k, face a larger tax hike than eliminating the passthru deduction

We do 2027 and 2029 because many parts of the OBBBA are temporary or phase in slowly. This gives a view of the law's effects before and after their temporary tax cuts for tips/overtime etc expire, and as Medicaid cuts grow.

In 2029 everyone is in the negative

Finally, “No Tax on Tips” will be difficult to access.

Its a tax deduction (not a credit, not a min. wage) with many restrictions. i.e. 1/3 of all tipped workers don’t have a tax liability to deduct from.

Business tax breaks in the bill don’t have similar restrictions…

Tipped workers are mostly low-income and only 1/3 get health insurance at work. We present the first estimates of how many tipped workers are vulnerable to the coming Medicaid, ACA and SNAP cuts. Its well over 1 million (over 30%)

New research from me @americanprogress.bsky.social
today: How will Trump’s OBBBA affect tipped workers?

Most have focused on “no tax on tips”, but tipped workers are esp. vulnerable to the bill’s program cuts. Medicaid & SNAP cuts vastly outweigh the worker tax cuts

After years of debates about inflation and fiscal stimulus, its striking that Republicans are passing a new fiscal stimulus.

Even relative to current policy, this bill pours $500 billion into the economy, mostly over the next 3 years

Some personal news

We use CBO's conservative estimate, but if the true number is closer to the Fed or AEI, then anyone who borrows money (mortgages, credit cards, business loans, etc) is in for high cost growth.

Even with CBO's number, mortgage interest costs grow a lot over the coming decades

New from CRFB, we estimate how mortgage costs will increase in 2034 as a result of the OBBBA. The bill's deficits ⬆️ mortgage costs, meeting or exceed the tax cut for many families:
-Avg mortgage payment +$1,450
-vs pp tax cut of $1,550

By 2055, costs skyrocket

The House plan will also add more to debt and deficits than any recent law.

The House bill would be *twice* as large as the original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act it is extending.

It could even be twice as large as the covid-era CARES Act. Its 50% more than Biden's American Rescue Plan.

The House Budget Resolution allows for $2.8 trillion in debt (possibly more). That's big. In fact its more than all our projected future spending on

:Foreign Aid
+student loans and Penn Grants
+EITC and CTC
+SNAP (food stamps)
COMBINED

The complexity is the point. Its easy to allocate+ avoid taxes, and hard for the IRS, or anyone outside, to track

I do take issue with one thing.
@dsmitch28.bsky.social says this is a "particularly complex" example. Its not. GAO actually says this is a fairly simple partnership web 😱

Look, I'm trying to understand your argument about why we lost (it affects me quite directly!)

Food asst was still like 50% higher in 2023 vs 2020, even if it declined 2022-2023. One version of this argument is to never temporarily expand a program cause voters won't remember 4 years back

Love to see this Wmata frequency! 5 trains in 7 minutes