Out of 5 global demand scenarios examined in the report, only 1 results in demand exceeding the ~48.5 Bcf/d already approved for export by 2050, and even that doesn't happen until the 2040s

The report doesn't draw a fine line on whether future LNG exports to non-free trade agreement countries should be approved (that's not what it's for). But it casts doubt on whether a market case exists for development of these facilities.

That could serve as a tail wind for OSW if the Trump II admin doesn't lean too hard into undermining the industry.

That's a big if, given Trump's comments on OSW.

But you have to wonder if demand pressure could make regulators and rate-payers alike less price sensitive when it comes to building new generation in the coming years.

www.utilitydive.com/news/us-elec....

That's a big jump from the sub-$100 agreements inked before mid-2022.

As Strazik notes, just about all those contracts busted.

newbedfordlight.org/bay-states-o...

What's interesting, is that's not out of line with offtake agreements we've seen in the US in the past year or so.

NY's June agreement with Equinor's Empire Wind I, has a strike price of $155/MWh. Comparable with other deals this year.

www.equinor.com/news/2024060...

Scott Strazik says offshore wind energy must price higher for the industry to succeed. He points to nuclear energy, which prices around $150/MWh as a more practical comparison for offshore wind pricing than cheaper onshore renewables.