Chris Whittall
@chriswhittall.bsky.social
Associate Editor, derivatives and secondary markets, at IFR. Views all mine.
Goldman Sachs: "The AI Spending Boom Is Not Too Big"
"Anticipated [AI] investment levels are sustainable, although the ultimate AI winners remain less clear..."
👇
"Anticipated [AI] investment levels are sustainable, although the ultimate AI winners remain less clear..."
👇
October 16, 2025 at 8:53 AM
Goldman Sachs: "The AI Spending Boom Is Not Too Big"
"Anticipated [AI] investment levels are sustainable, although the ultimate AI winners remain less clear..."
👇
"Anticipated [AI] investment levels are sustainable, although the ultimate AI winners remain less clear..."
👇
Goldman Sachs going out on a limb here and projecting where government bond yields will be in ***2035***
Sees 10yr US and Japan yields slightly higher, UK yields slightly lower, Germany flat
Sees 10yr US and Japan yields slightly higher, UK yields slightly lower, Germany flat
October 16, 2025 at 8:48 AM
Goldman Sachs going out on a limb here and projecting where government bond yields will be in ***2035***
Sees 10yr US and Japan yields slightly higher, UK yields slightly lower, Germany flat
Sees 10yr US and Japan yields slightly higher, UK yields slightly lower, Germany flat
Conviction in the short USD trade dropped to the lowest level since Liberation Day - BofA research
October 10, 2025 at 9:16 AM
Conviction in the short USD trade dropped to the lowest level since Liberation Day - BofA research
Some interesting thoughts from RBC BlueBay's Mark Dowding on the next Fed chair and Fed independence
Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue
Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue
October 10, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Some interesting thoughts from RBC BlueBay's Mark Dowding on the next Fed chair and Fed independence
Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue
Sees Bessent as the frontrunner and Trump rate-cutting pressure not as much of an issue
Goldman Sachs: Why we are not in a bubble... yet
"We see key differences" to previous bubbles
Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets
Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"
"We see key differences" to previous bubbles
Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets
Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"
October 8, 2025 at 8:36 AM
Goldman Sachs: Why we are not in a bubble... yet
"We see key differences" to previous bubbles
Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets
Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"
"We see key differences" to previous bubbles
Eg tech appreciation driven by fundamental growth from companies with strong balance sheets
Tech valuations "are becoming stretched" but "not yet at levels consistent with historical bubbles"
Larry Ellison, like Elon Musk, is a longtime user of margin loans, using his 41% Oracle stake as a source of cash for his business dealings
That stake has become a lot more valuable over the past year as Oracle has positioned itself as a beneficiary of the AI boom and its shares have soared
That stake has become a lot more valuable over the past year as Oracle has positioned itself as a beneficiary of the AI boom and its shares have soared
October 6, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Larry Ellison, like Elon Musk, is a longtime user of margin loans, using his 41% Oracle stake as a source of cash for his business dealings
That stake has become a lot more valuable over the past year as Oracle has positioned itself as a beneficiary of the AI boom and its shares have soared
That stake has become a lot more valuable over the past year as Oracle has positioned itself as a beneficiary of the AI boom and its shares have soared
NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market
ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
October 6, 2025 at 12:57 PM
NEW: Zero-day contracts become dominant force in S&P 500 options market
ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
ADV in zero-day options hit a record 2.5m contracts in September, now representing ~ 60% of all S&P 500 options volumes
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday
Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast
Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast
October 6, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Goldman Sachs publishes a note on the curve steepener trade stalling on Friday
Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast
Politics in Japan and France over the weekend: not so fast
Worth noting this comes amid a surge in trading volumes
It's now the $9.6trn a day FX market, up from $7.5trn in 2022
And the $7.9trn a day interest rate derivatives market
Helps that the BIS's survey took place in April during the tariff volatility
It's now the $9.6trn a day FX market, up from $7.5trn in 2022
And the $7.9trn a day interest rate derivatives market
Helps that the BIS's survey took place in April during the tariff volatility
September 30, 2025 at 1:27 PM
Worth noting this comes amid a surge in trading volumes
It's now the $9.6trn a day FX market, up from $7.5trn in 2022
And the $7.9trn a day interest rate derivatives market
Helps that the BIS's survey took place in April during the tariff volatility
It's now the $9.6trn a day FX market, up from $7.5trn in 2022
And the $7.9trn a day interest rate derivatives market
Helps that the BIS's survey took place in April during the tariff volatility
This doesn't mean nonbanks will retreat from the $2.1bn bridgehead they've established in FX
Also worth noting it's a "feature, not a bug" of the nonbank model that they're not competing in these other parts of the market
However, that may limit their market share growth from here in FX ///
Also worth noting it's a "feature, not a bug" of the nonbank model that they're not competing in these other parts of the market
However, that may limit their market share growth from here in FX ///
September 23, 2025 at 11:46 AM
This doesn't mean nonbanks will retreat from the $2.1bn bridgehead they've established in FX
Also worth noting it's a "feature, not a bug" of the nonbank model that they're not competing in these other parts of the market
However, that may limit their market share growth from here in FX ///
Also worth noting it's a "feature, not a bug" of the nonbank model that they're not competing in these other parts of the market
However, that may limit their market share growth from here in FX ///
Perhaps no coincidence nonbanks make larger inroads in markets where corporates are less prominent
eg, share of credit trading revenues up from 9% to 13% since 2021, via Coalition Greenwich; also account for 1/3 of cash equities
Rates is the other space they've struggled to take share lately
eg, share of credit trading revenues up from 9% to 13% since 2021, via Coalition Greenwich; also account for 1/3 of cash equities
Rates is the other space they've struggled to take share lately
September 23, 2025 at 11:40 AM
Perhaps no coincidence nonbanks make larger inroads in markets where corporates are less prominent
eg, share of credit trading revenues up from 9% to 13% since 2021, via Coalition Greenwich; also account for 1/3 of cash equities
Rates is the other space they've struggled to take share lately
eg, share of credit trading revenues up from 9% to 13% since 2021, via Coalition Greenwich; also account for 1/3 of cash equities
Rates is the other space they've struggled to take share lately
Banks' FX businesses have grown, though, as their corporate + institutional clients have done more hedging post-Covid
Multinationals often require bundled services (loans, transaction banking, trade finance etc) and reward their banks with FX flow
Here's a senior trader on how to make money in FX
Multinationals often require bundled services (loans, transaction banking, trade finance etc) and reward their banks with FX flow
Here's a senior trader on how to make money in FX
September 23, 2025 at 11:34 AM
Banks' FX businesses have grown, though, as their corporate + institutional clients have done more hedging post-Covid
Multinationals often require bundled services (loans, transaction banking, trade finance etc) and reward their banks with FX flow
Here's a senior trader on how to make money in FX
Multinationals often require bundled services (loans, transaction banking, trade finance etc) and reward their banks with FX flow
Here's a senior trader on how to make money in FX
XTX Markets actually now makes the bulk of its revenues trading equities, sources say, as its rapidly expanding business in this area has overtaken its FX operations
Here's how the wider industry's FX market-making revenues have evolved
Here's how the wider industry's FX market-making revenues have evolved
September 23, 2025 at 11:28 AM
XTX Markets actually now makes the bulk of its revenues trading equities, sources say, as its rapidly expanding business in this area has overtaken its FX operations
Here's how the wider industry's FX market-making revenues have evolved
Here's how the wider industry's FX market-making revenues have evolved
But growth has been harder to come by lately
Why? B/c the fastest-growing (+ most lucrative) parts of FX markets - OTC derivatives + corporate flow - lie largely out of reach
Nonbanks remain very good in spot FX, but there's not so much money to be made here - and the revenue pool hasn't grown
Why? B/c the fastest-growing (+ most lucrative) parts of FX markets - OTC derivatives + corporate flow - lie largely out of reach
Nonbanks remain very good in spot FX, but there's not so much money to be made here - and the revenue pool hasn't grown
September 23, 2025 at 11:26 AM
But growth has been harder to come by lately
Why? B/c the fastest-growing (+ most lucrative) parts of FX markets - OTC derivatives + corporate flow - lie largely out of reach
Nonbanks remain very good in spot FX, but there's not so much money to be made here - and the revenue pool hasn't grown
Why? B/c the fastest-growing (+ most lucrative) parts of FX markets - OTC derivatives + corporate flow - lie largely out of reach
Nonbanks remain very good in spot FX, but there's not so much money to be made here - and the revenue pool hasn't grown
NEW: Nonbanks' trading growth stalls in $7.5trn FX market
Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021
Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn
Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021
Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn
Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
September 23, 2025 at 11:16 AM
NEW: Nonbanks' trading growth stalls in $7.5trn FX market
Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021
Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn
Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Nonbank trading firms made $2.1bn in FX marketmaking in 2024, Coalition Greenwich estimates, ~ flat from 2021
Banks, by comparison, increased FX revenues 32% to $39.4bn
Story and 🧵on this rare trading slowdown
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
as a reminder, that July trough was the lowest level for DXY was February 2022
September 16, 2025 at 1:34 PM
as a reminder, that July trough was the lowest level for DXY was February 2022
Dollar index at its lowest level since early July
September 16, 2025 at 1:33 PM
Dollar index at its lowest level since early July
NEW: Bank of America's succession battle hots up
Jim DeMare, the BofA's trading chief, has been named co-president alongside regional banking head, Dean Athanasia
Puts them in line to succeed Brian Moynihan, the longest serving major US bank CEO behind Jamie Dimon
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Jim DeMare, the BofA's trading chief, has been named co-president alongside regional banking head, Dean Athanasia
Puts them in line to succeed Brian Moynihan, the longest serving major US bank CEO behind Jamie Dimon
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
September 15, 2025 at 10:39 AM
NEW: Bank of America's succession battle hots up
Jim DeMare, the BofA's trading chief, has been named co-president alongside regional banking head, Dean Athanasia
Puts them in line to succeed Brian Moynihan, the longest serving major US bank CEO behind Jamie Dimon
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Jim DeMare, the BofA's trading chief, has been named co-president alongside regional banking head, Dean Athanasia
Puts them in line to succeed Brian Moynihan, the longest serving major US bank CEO behind Jamie Dimon
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Sterling has quietly inched its way up to $1.36 against the dollar, highest level in over two months
September 15, 2025 at 9:38 AM
Sterling has quietly inched its way up to $1.36 against the dollar, highest level in over two months
I wrote about how a third of Elon Musk's stake in Tesla is tied up in margin loans, underlining how Musk continues to lean on his nearly US$250bn-worth of shares as a source of cash
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
September 12, 2025 at 9:45 AM
I wrote about how a third of Elon Musk's stake in Tesla is tied up in margin loans, underlining how Musk continues to lean on his nearly US$250bn-worth of shares as a source of cash
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
www.ifre.com/people-and-m...
Even better: "QT Frutti" 👏👏👏
September 12, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Even better: "QT Frutti" 👏👏👏
Barclays predicts the Banks of England will slow quantitative tightening to £75-80bn a year from current level of £100bn
"We also expect a sign that the BoE executive will be more flexible with the maturity profile of sales, enabling it to limit sales in the long end as appropriate over the year"
"We also expect a sign that the BoE executive will be more flexible with the maturity profile of sales, enabling it to limit sales in the long end as appropriate over the year"
September 12, 2025 at 8:38 AM
Barclays predicts the Banks of England will slow quantitative tightening to £75-80bn a year from current level of £100bn
"We also expect a sign that the BoE executive will be more flexible with the maturity profile of sales, enabling it to limit sales in the long end as appropriate over the year"
"We also expect a sign that the BoE executive will be more flexible with the maturity profile of sales, enabling it to limit sales in the long end as appropriate over the year"
French-German 10-year spread flat/slightly tighter since French government fell on Monday
Confirms this was the base case among investors, who had hedged heavily using futures in the run-up to the no confidence vote (see story link)
Question is, where to now?
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Confirms this was the base case among investors, who had hedged heavily using futures in the run-up to the no confidence vote (see story link)
Question is, where to now?
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
September 10, 2025 at 8:53 AM
French-German 10-year spread flat/slightly tighter since French government fell on Monday
Confirms this was the base case among investors, who had hedged heavily using futures in the run-up to the no confidence vote (see story link)
Question is, where to now?
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
Confirms this was the base case among investors, who had hedged heavily using futures in the run-up to the no confidence vote (see story link)
Question is, where to now?
www.ifre.com/topic-codes/...
One for the bonds geeks:
Did yields on 10-year France and Italy bonds really cross?
Not if you look at bonds with close enough maturities, as my excellent colleague Divyang Shah notes
Or zero coupon constant maturity swaps
Still pretty close though!
www.ifre.com/rates/231076...
Did yields on 10-year France and Italy bonds really cross?
Not if you look at bonds with close enough maturities, as my excellent colleague Divyang Shah notes
Or zero coupon constant maturity swaps
Still pretty close though!
www.ifre.com/rates/231076...
September 10, 2025 at 8:01 AM
One for the bonds geeks:
Did yields on 10-year France and Italy bonds really cross?
Not if you look at bonds with close enough maturities, as my excellent colleague Divyang Shah notes
Or zero coupon constant maturity swaps
Still pretty close though!
www.ifre.com/rates/231076...
Did yields on 10-year France and Italy bonds really cross?
Not if you look at bonds with close enough maturities, as my excellent colleague Divyang Shah notes
Or zero coupon constant maturity swaps
Still pretty close though!
www.ifre.com/rates/231076...
UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
September 9, 2025 at 9:14 AM
UK 10-year Gilts are Goldman Sachs' top cross-asset investment pick over the next six months
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year
Forecasts yields to drop 40bp and a total return of 6.1%
VS return of 1.6% for Treasuries, 2.2% for the S&P500
Only sees gold as producing better returns over the next year