CFBNumbers
@cfbnumbers.bsky.social
College Football analysis through the good ole fashioned computer! | Senior Media Research Associate: PFF
The CFB Analytics Newsletter: https://cfbnumbers.substack.com
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The CFB Analytics Newsletter: https://cfbnumbers.substack.com
Buy Me A Coffee!: https://buymeacoffee.com/cfbnumbers
Among FBS Head coaches with 15+ games (that have spreads/point totals), this is how many points they are favored/not favored pregame, and their avg point differential above/below that pregame expectation. Curt Cignetti is on a whole other level
October 30, 2025 at 8:41 PM
Among FBS Head coaches with 15+ games (that have spreads/point totals), this is how many points they are favored/not favored pregame, and their avg point differential above/below that pregame expectation. Curt Cignetti is on a whole other level
Havent shared my consensus power ratings in a while, so here they are heading into week 10. The B1G holds the top three spots, Ohio State + Indiana are in the top tier (standard deviations) while Oregon is like decimal points off that line
October 29, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Havent shared my consensus power ratings in a while, so here they are heading into week 10. The B1G holds the top three spots, Ohio State + Indiana are in the top tier (standard deviations) while Oregon is like decimal points off that line
Everyones favorite: Completion Pct Over Expectation by pass depth for some of the top QBs expected in the 2026 NFL Draft class
October 23, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Everyones favorite: Completion Pct Over Expectation by pass depth for some of the top QBs expected in the 2026 NFL Draft class
Expected points added per play divided up by above 50th percentile defense vs. below. Basically bottom right = better against worse defenses, top left better against better defenses
October 23, 2025 at 2:40 PM
Expected points added per play divided up by above 50th percentile defense vs. below. Basically bottom right = better against worse defenses, top left better against better defenses
Thought maybe Carson Beck would be dethroned in the QB point rating system, but he narrowly holds onto the top spot. Top 3 highest climbers this season: Gunner Stockton, Jayden Maiava, and the newest in the top 30: Julian Sayin!
October 21, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Thought maybe Carson Beck would be dethroned in the QB point rating system, but he narrowly holds onto the top spot. Top 3 highest climbers this season: Gunner Stockton, Jayden Maiava, and the newest in the top 30: Julian Sayin!
Highest Comp Pct Over Expectation in the CFB Playoff era. We still have a pretty small sample size for some of the active players on this list, but for now: Julian Sayin has been every bit of the ultra accurate QB we thought he would be
October 20, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Highest Comp Pct Over Expectation in the CFB Playoff era. We still have a pretty small sample size for some of the active players on this list, but for now: Julian Sayin has been every bit of the ultra accurate QB we thought he would be
Updated top 30 QBs in the FBS (Career number not just this year) based on my point rating system. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams have climbed the most this season. Ty Simpson sitting just outside the top 30 (32). Drew Allar has fallen out of the top 30
October 16, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Updated top 30 QBs in the FBS (Career number not just this year) based on my point rating system. Jayden Maiava and Demond Williams have climbed the most this season. Ty Simpson sitting just outside the top 30 (32). Drew Allar has fallen out of the top 30
Looking at offensive conversion rate paired with the average down they achieve these 1st down conversions (excluding plays in the red zone). I am of the philosophy that the best offenses convert at a high rate and on earlier downs. Its too hard to live and die by 3rd down
October 16, 2025 at 4:35 PM
Looking at offensive conversion rate paired with the average down they achieve these 1st down conversions (excluding plays in the red zone). I am of the philosophy that the best offenses convert at a high rate and on earlier downs. Its too hard to live and die by 3rd down
Have seen some NFL posts about QB sacks + scrambles, wanted to look at it on the college level (although its all rushes and not just scrambles sadly). QBs to the right of the line have added more as a rusher than they have lost taking sacks
October 10, 2025 at 3:50 PM
Have seen some NFL posts about QB sacks + scrambles, wanted to look at it on the college level (although its all rushes and not just scrambles sadly). QBs to the right of the line have added more as a rusher than they have lost taking sacks
Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season
October 9, 2025 at 2:46 PM
Love looking at expected points before the snap vs. average distance as you also get things like field position + time left in EP. Missouri, Indiana and Utah among the best 3rd down offenses so far this season
Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!
October 8, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Top 30 FBS QBs (Career rating) heading into week 7 this week. Darian Mensah and Jayden Maiava keep moving up, dont forget about CJ Bailey making his climb!
"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5
October 6, 2025 at 10:10 PM
"Passing" Down frequency & how efficient QBs have been on those passing downs. CJ Bailey, Ty Simpson, Josh Hoover have been ballin on a bigger sample of passing downs for the P4, Brown & Finley for Georgia State in the G5
Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State
October 2, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Now that we are a couple games in, its time to see what the Fun Index thinks of your team (Fun Index = composite of metrics i find fun like QB play, explosiveness on offense, generating turnovers on defense etc.). Top teams having fun: USC, Indiana and Florida State
New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out!
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...
The CJ Carr Week: CFB Week 5 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 6 Look Ahead
Before you could even finish your blink, September college football is behind us.
cfbnumbers.substack.com
October 2, 2025 at 4:02 PM
New article! This week I chose to highlight how impressive CJ Carr looked against Arkansas. Come check it out!
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-cj-car...
Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.
September 26, 2025 at 6:29 PM
Home and Away Point differential over expectation (expectation being betting lines) since the 2022 season. Really just wanted to see Oregon in the Dan Lanning era, not as bad of a diff home vs. away than I originally thought.
Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there!
cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/
cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/
September 25, 2025 at 4:19 PM
Fresh coat of paint and, more importantly, I have updated my QB spider chart app to include the 2025 season as it stands today. Still gotta work on QB comps from previous years but for now if you want 2025 data it is there!
cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/
cfbnumbers.shinyapps.io/spiderapp/
New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...
The Fernando Mendoza Week: CFB Week 4 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 5 Look Ahead
The 2026 NFL draft is still many months away, but scouting has been well underway this season.
cfbnumbers.substack.com
September 25, 2025 at 2:23 PM
New weekly recap in your inboxes!! A QB has potentially emerged in a murky 2026 QB class:
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-fernan...
Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season:
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%
September 22, 2025 at 1:54 PM
Highest PFF Big Time Throw rate so far this season:
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%
1. Tommy Castellanos (FSU) - 12.8%
2. Will Hammond (TTU) - 10.0%
3. Colton Joseph (ODU) - 9.9%
4. Brendan Sorsby (Cincy) - 9.1%
QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents
September 19, 2025 at 3:48 PM
QB point rating as it stands currently vs. how many points they've gained or lost since the beginning of the year. These are 45 QBs who could be potential 2026 or 2027 NFL Draft QBs. Still super early and its hard to gain that much against inferior opponents
Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall
September 18, 2025 at 9:07 PM
Top 30 QBs in my point rating system heading into this week. Big moves up by Marcel Reed, Jake Retzlaff, Joey Aguilar, Taylen Green among others. Drew Allar continues to fall
Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!)
Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...
Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...
The Week of the Wide Receiver: CFB Week 3 Advanced Stats Recap + Week 4 Look Ahead
Wide receivers making big time impacts in big time games!
cfbnumbers.substack.com
September 18, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Another recap + look ahead just hit your inboxes! (If you're subscribed of course, which is 100% free!)
Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...
Link⬇️
cfbnumbers.substack.com/p/the-week-o...
Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive
September 17, 2025 at 9:29 PM
Success rate and explosiveness (measured here as what you do when you generate a successful play). Anything right of the vertical dashed line is fine, shows a consistent offense. USC has been both consistent and explosive
*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows
September 16, 2025 at 4:15 PM
*Small sample size alert* But looking at Arch Mannings completion pct vs. expected completion pct, we can see that intermediate 10-19 yard range has really taken a dive so far this year. Hard to fully operate a Sark offense if you can hit those 10-19 yard MOF windows
QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli
September 14, 2025 at 2:31 PM
QB for JUST the games that happened this weekend. Up first is the Power 4. Not a banner day for Drew Allar/Arch Manning, but a great day for Fernando Mendoza, Malik Washington, Josh Hoover & Steve Angeli
A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback
September 12, 2025 at 2:34 PM
A silly little big time throw rate & turnover worthy play rate graph with only a 2 game sample size. Mainly just to say wheewwwww buddy Arch Manning and Diego Pavia. A thrill on every dropback