here's hoping ;-)

I do wonder what’ll happen when EHCPs are pared back and EPs are unshackled from statutory assessment duties to spend more time supporting schools

The most recent costs I've seen are about £3k-£3.5k per unit per annum (rental & s/w updates), dependent on whether it's a one-off or bulk procurement

If you found this interesting or worthwhile, then you seriously need to have a word with yourself. If you want more on SEND funding, then have a gander at this, at @spcialndsjungle.bsky.social /end

www.specialneedsjungle.com/send-funding...

And the £14 billion bit - the estimated cumulative DSG deficit that OBR estimate will be there in April 2028?

No rebuttal, no plans announced to deal with it, those plans might come soon, or they might not

So the £6bn part of this alleged 'SEND timebomb' might not exist, because there might not be any extra deficit for Whitehall to mop up from April 2028, for reasons DfE won't explain

Their rebuttal is basically a Simpsons meme

The DfE have been a bit shirty about the OBR's financial projections, because they don't take into account the broad, sunlit uplands that await us when they implement their SEND reforms

The reforms that they've provided no meaningful information about thus far

If you're still awake & haven't committed seppuku yet, April 2028 is when the combined DSG deficit leaves its limbo state and lands.... somewhere

It's not clear where, but government will apparently announce its fate at the local government provisional settlement in a week or 2

But LAs are nervous

This is the combined DSG deficit that's being accumulated over time by councils. It was £2.2bn in April 2024. From published out-turn data, I think it'll be £3.8bn in April 2025. And my best guess for April 2026 is a £6.1bn deficit

OBR's best guess for April 2028? £14 billion

So that's the £6bn bit of the Guardian's '£20bn time-bomb'

The other £14 billion? That's covering a different time period, and it's the OBR's estimate of accrued DSG deficits over time - from 2018 through to the end of FY 2027-28, when the 'switch' occurs

But it's a glaring indicator of intent to pare back statutory SEND provision

These guys worry about perverse incentives: it's hard to believe they'd sign off on bringing future SEND deficits back into Whitehall without a sturdy stick, otherwise LAs are free to spend without direct consequence

The language is super-vague, presumably because relevant Whitehall departments (DfE, MHCLG, HMT, possibly DHSC) haven't worked out yet who will pay the tab for any SEND deficits that LAs rack up from 2028, and how they will pay for it

The DSG deficits sit in accounting limbo. Until y'day, they were due to land back on council balance sheets in April 2028, which would have wrecked / further wrecked many councils' financial position

The 'switch' here is that central govt will now pick up the tab for *in year* deficits from 2028

Since 2018, councils have spent more on high-needs SEND than the DfE has given them via the DSG - recently, a lot more

OBR (optimistically) expects council DSG deficits in one year (FY 2028-29) to be £6bn

It's this in-year deficit that will be 'switched' from April 2028

This figure is bollocks. Although no-one knows exactly how much central & local government spend on SEND, it's at least a 50% underestimate, easily checked.

The £6 billion figure they refer to - and the thing that will be 'switched' - is something else

Councils get allocated education funding via the DfE's Dedicated Schools Grant. This includes funding for SEND provision that educates and trains children and young people

Some is delegated directly to schools & academies to spend, some goes via to LAs to allocate for high-needs provision

BCP council have always been very enthusiastic consumers of external SEND legal services, to no-one's obvious benefit

Their most recent financial reporting shows that they're paying the same firm for legal services out of the DSG itself: if that's not a coding error, then it'll take some explaining

80% of LAs now have a cumulative deficit on their DSG

But many of the LAs that still have a DSG surplus are statistically & demographically similar to BCP: very urban, distinct pockets of deprivation & wealth, surrounded by shire counties (eg Southend, Portsmouth, Bradford)

Worth looking into why

It also doesn’t give a strong impression that they believe mainstream schools would have much to learn from how and why special schools use that freedom