Rob Davies
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Rob Davies
@byrobdavies.bsky.social
Guardian reporter.
DM me with tips or for Signal/Protonmail/PGP (NO PR PITCHES)
Spurs fan (mute #thfc #coys to avoid).
Author of Jackpot: How Gambling Conquered Britain.
I checked the score obviously...
November 26, 2025 at 11:47 PM
One of the most addictive betting products. But niche/for rich people, so doesn't get much attention (including from me, admittedly).
November 26, 2025 at 5:42 PM
Basically there isn't much money in bingo any more and there's tons in online casino.
November 26, 2025 at 5:36 PM
Could work.
November 26, 2025 at 5:28 PM
They say it mitigates by about £6m. I think the £40m figure includes that.
November 26, 2025 at 5:27 PM
I think that's why Entain, Rank and Flutter shares are all up.

But if Entain, for instance, also comes out with a profit guidance cut, you'd expect to see a correction in the share price tomorrow.
November 26, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Hadn't spotted this earlier but the Gambling Commission will get an extra £26m over the next three years to take aim at the black market.

That's a decent whack for a regulator with a budget of about £60m a year.
November 26, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Yep.
November 26, 2025 at 3:13 PM
There's also some fuzzy logic in saying that you're targeting the most addictive products but then leaving machine gaming duty unchanced, when that's the tax levied on adult gaming centres (AGCs), whose slot machines are linked to very high rates of harm.

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
Spin doctors: gambling firms adopt hard tactics to flood towns with 24-hour slot machines
Companies deploy highly-paid lawyers and appear to mislead councillors – but local authorities are fighting back
www.theguardian.com
November 26, 2025 at 3:12 PM
But how will firms actually respond? Will they cut shops/jobs? Will they give punters much worse odds and cut bonuses?

Bear in mind that firms are always looking to shunt punters online where fixed costs are lower. Will be handy to blame voluntary reduction in high street presesnce on Chancellor.
November 26, 2025 at 3:06 PM
On the other hand, OBR reckons it raises £1.1bn by 29/30, part of so-called "smorgasbord" of tax rises that raise much-needed funds for public services without raising headline tax rates.

And there will be some who see a smaller gambling industry (inevitably meaning fewer jobs) as no bad thing.
November 26, 2025 at 3:02 PM
The industry has warned of an exodus to the black market and the Office for Budget Responsibility appears to agree, factoring some migration to ililicit sites into its assessment of how much the duty increase will raise.
November 26, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Meanwhile, shares in Evoke (owner of William Hill/888) are down c.10%. Smaller, heavily indebted, more weighted towards online casino, where the bulk of the duty rise hits.

40% remote gaming duty is punchy, even risky. See Alun Bowden in my recent piece on tax.

www.theguardian.com/society/2025...
How could Reeves hit gambling firms – and are they fearmongering over impact?
Chancellor is expected to increase duties bookies and casinos pay, ending months of speculation and lobbying
www.theguardian.com
November 26, 2025 at 2:59 PM
This is correct. A pale shadow of the rest. But still with a peppering of genius here and there.
November 25, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Depends how it all shakes out. There is a possibility, depending on the quantum of duty rised and how they're applied, that racing could suffer.

There's a wider philosophical question about whether racing should be propped up by remote casino losses.
November 25, 2025 at 10:43 AM