Brian Carter
@briancarter.bsky.social
Middle East Portfolio Manager at AEI’s Critical Threats Project. I lead the joint CTP and Institute for the Study of War Middle East Team. Opinions own.
Alawites already feel disenfranchised and fear the future, as recent Economist polling and other reports indicate. The insurgents likely aim to take advantage of these dynamics.
April 3, 2025 at 7:47 PM
Alawites already feel disenfranchised and fear the future, as recent Economist polling and other reports indicate. The insurgents likely aim to take advantage of these dynamics.
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
March 12, 2025 at 3:59 PM
The Houthis announced yesterday that they will resume attacks on maritime shipping. The US air campaign against the Houthis will not deter the group, as I've previously argued. These attacks drive up the cost of goods due to increases in shipping costs. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
March 10, 2025 at 5:17 PM
I created a new map layer for @thestudyofwar.bsky.social and @criticalthreats.bsky.social that shows insurgent presence across Syria. The new Syrian interim government faces a nascent insurgency across the country. Read more here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/und...
The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
March 7, 2025 at 11:19 PM
The emerging insurgency in western Syria underscores the need to engage with and support Damascus--though not without conditions. This insurgency stands only to help US adversaries and damage US interests in the Middle East. Read here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?
March 1, 2025 at 7:10 PM
This is a sure fire way to give Iran the opening it wants to rebuild its networks in Syria. A probable IRGC-backed group already popped up on Feb 27. My question for those championing Israeli operations in southern Syria: how does this end?
The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest
January 31, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The Israeli campaign in Gaza was a military success, but it has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas. The reality that Hamas remains a potent governance actor in Gaza despite the Israeli operation does not mean that the campaign in the strip is a failure. Link ⬇️ for my latest
The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US.
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
November 22, 2024 at 7:28 PM
The Houthis are now a strategic threat with global implications for the US.
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
The US decision to "avoid" escalation has failed and the Houthis are undeterred. The policy of "managing escalation" in fact encourages escalation and protracts conflicts. My latest www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.
November 17, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Al Akhbar reported what I suspected—IDF is moving toward an elevated point on the Lebanese coast that overlooks a UNIFIL position and more importantly, a reported Hezbollah Naval Unit site. Source for the site in replies.
Read the @criticalthreats.bsky.social and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social latest on Israel’s October 25 Strike targeting Iran. The strike knocked out key Iranian SAMs and damaged production facilities, leaving Iran vulnerable going forward. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...
November 13, 2024 at 8:41 PM
Read the @criticalthreats.bsky.social and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social latest on Israel’s October 25 Strike targeting Iran. The strike knocked out key Iranian SAMs and damaged production facilities, leaving Iran vulnerable going forward. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/the...