Brandon Paddock
@brandonlive.com
Architect for AI in Word at Microsoft.
Previous: ~14 years working on Windows, with a stint as small startup CTO in the middle. I also made Tweetium (may it rest in peace).
https://brandonpaddock.substack.com
Previous: ~14 years working on Windows, with a stint as small startup CTO in the middle. I also made Tweetium (may it rest in peace).
https://brandonpaddock.substack.com
Transitioning to EVs is absolutely critical to addressing climate change. There are around a *billion* cars in the world (and the number actually keeps going up). There’s no conceivable way to get emissions under control without eliminating ICEVs. We need to do it as fast as possible.
December 21, 2025 at 5:44 AM
Transitioning to EVs is absolutely critical to addressing climate change. There are around a *billion* cars in the world (and the number actually keeps going up). There’s no conceivable way to get emissions under control without eliminating ICEVs. We need to do it as fast as possible.
EVs are in fact not “just as bad as ordinary cars”. Typical EVs in Seattle produce ~20% or less of the lifecycle emissions of equivalent combustion engine vehicles. Our cars are charged on 100% clean energy.
Having no car is not a reasonable (or desirable) option for us.
Having no car is not a reasonable (or desirable) option for us.
December 21, 2025 at 5:41 AM
EVs are in fact not “just as bad as ordinary cars”. Typical EVs in Seattle produce ~20% or less of the lifecycle emissions of equivalent combustion engine vehicles. Our cars are charged on 100% clean energy.
Having no car is not a reasonable (or desirable) option for us.
Having no car is not a reasonable (or desirable) option for us.
That is misleading. NCAP only assesses vehicles when major changes are introduced. They only awarded Best-In-Class awards in 2022 and 2024, and there were no Tesla vehicles assesses in 2024.
The Model Y was assessed in 2022 and 2025. The Model 3 in 2019 and 2025. And the Model S in 2022.
The Model Y was assessed in 2022 and 2025. The Model 3 in 2019 and 2025. And the Model S in 2022.
December 16, 2025 at 4:43 PM
That is misleading. NCAP only assesses vehicles when major changes are introduced. They only awarded Best-In-Class awards in 2022 and 2024, and there were no Tesla vehicles assesses in 2024.
The Model Y was assessed in 2022 and 2025. The Model 3 in 2019 and 2025. And the Model S in 2022.
The Model Y was assessed in 2022 and 2025. The Model 3 in 2019 and 2025. And the Model S in 2022.
What? The CR data shows they improved basically every year, across all models. The 2023 models were introduced 3 years ago, not 18 months ago. That was an example of how they scored higher than many others even a few years ago.
You’re clearly not arguing in good faith here.
You’re clearly not arguing in good faith here.
December 16, 2025 at 4:28 PM
What? The CR data shows they improved basically every year, across all models. The 2023 models were introduced 3 years ago, not 18 months ago. That was an example of how they scored higher than many others even a few years ago.
You’re clearly not arguing in good faith here.
You’re clearly not arguing in good faith here.
They also have one of the lowest rates of fatal accidents per NHTSA data.
brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas...
One of my greatest regrets in moving away from Tesla is that we had to buy less safe cars. But at least what we have instead are above average.
brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas...
One of my greatest regrets in moving away from Tesla is that we had to buy less safe cars. But at least what we have instead are above average.
December 16, 2025 at 4:26 PM
They also have one of the lowest rates of fatal accidents per NHTSA data.
brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas...
One of my greatest regrets in moving away from Tesla is that we had to buy less safe cars. But at least what we have instead are above average.
brandonpaddock.substack.com/p/are-teslas...
One of my greatest regrets in moving away from Tesla is that we had to buy less safe cars. But at least what we have instead are above average.
But what makes them fantastic are others aspects, like quality-of-life features, software, UX design, efficiency, ADAS, packaging (cargo and passenger space), convenience, and safety.
They routinely achieve the highest Euro NCAP scores ever awarded and are always awarded best-in-class.
They routinely achieve the highest Euro NCAP scores ever awarded and are always awarded best-in-class.
December 16, 2025 at 4:24 PM
But what makes them fantastic are others aspects, like quality-of-life features, software, UX design, efficiency, ADAS, packaging (cargo and passenger space), convenience, and safety.
They routinely achieve the highest Euro NCAP scores ever awarded and are always awarded best-in-class.
They routinely achieve the highest Euro NCAP scores ever awarded and are always awarded best-in-class.
No car is perfect, and nobody is saying Tesla makes the most reliable cars you can buy. But they’re solidly average to above average in reliability, and even then *major* issues are very rare, most issues are fixed in seamless software updates or historically were minor fit-and-finish things.
December 16, 2025 at 4:22 PM
No car is perfect, and nobody is saying Tesla makes the most reliable cars you can buy. But they’re solidly average to above average in reliability, and even then *major* issues are very rare, most issues are fixed in seamless software updates or historically were minor fit-and-finish things.
That is simply not what the data says. CR gives the 2023 Model Y a 67 / 100 for reliability. This is the same score they gave the 2024 Audi A4.
The 2023 Mustang Mach-E has a reliability score of 38 / 100. The 2023 BMW i4 got 48.
The 2023 Mustang Mach-E has a reliability score of 38 / 100. The 2023 BMW i4 got 48.
December 16, 2025 at 4:20 PM
That is simply not what the data says. CR gives the 2023 Model Y a 67 / 100 for reliability. This is the same score they gave the 2024 Audi A4.
The 2023 Mustang Mach-E has a reliability score of 38 / 100. The 2023 BMW i4 got 48.
The 2023 Mustang Mach-E has a reliability score of 38 / 100. The 2023 BMW i4 got 48.
I replaced my Model S with a Porsche Taycan and it’s a worse car in far too many ways, even though it costs around 50% more for a lower spec config.
We got an Audi Q6 for my wife in Sept and it’s already spent a week at the dealer just for a software update, which is absurd. And it’s still buggy.
We got an Audi Q6 for my wife in Sept and it’s already spent a week at the dealer just for a software update, which is absurd. And it’s still buggy.
December 16, 2025 at 3:50 PM
I replaced my Model S with a Porsche Taycan and it’s a worse car in far too many ways, even though it costs around 50% more for a lower spec config.
We got an Audi Q6 for my wife in Sept and it’s already spent a week at the dealer just for a software update, which is absurd. And it’s still buggy.
We got an Audi Q6 for my wife in Sept and it’s already spent a week at the dealer just for a software update, which is absurd. And it’s still buggy.
I don’t agree. They are not known to have major issues at all. And no one said 18 months, they’ve improved in initial build quality and overall reliability steadily over the years since at least 2017.
They’re more reliable than many popular brands in their class (including Audi, VW, MB, etc).
They’re more reliable than many popular brands in their class (including Audi, VW, MB, etc).
December 16, 2025 at 3:48 PM
I don’t agree. They are not known to have major issues at all. And no one said 18 months, they’ve improved in initial build quality and overall reliability steadily over the years since at least 2017.
They’re more reliable than many popular brands in their class (including Audi, VW, MB, etc).
They’re more reliable than many popular brands in their class (including Audi, VW, MB, etc).
Tesla actually activates the brakes periodically while driving to prevent build-up and has forever, but it’s not surprising some smaller % arrive in between that happening. There’s no functional problem with it. Their brakes last super long, replacements are very rare.
December 16, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Tesla actually activates the brakes periodically while driving to prevent build-up and has forever, but it’s not surprising some smaller % arrive in between that happening. There’s no functional problem with it. Their brakes last super long, replacements are very rare.
No, there just aren’t any others sold in Germany that actually use full regen to a stop and one pedal driving. It probably just means some people drove to the test site without using the brakes after being parked outside in the rain. All cars get rust on the brakes that comes off when used.
December 16, 2025 at 9:04 AM
No, there just aren’t any others sold in Germany that actually use full regen to a stop and one pedal driving. It probably just means some people drove to the test site without using the brakes after being parked outside in the rain. All cars get rust on the brakes that comes off when used.
The brake thing seems like an assessment problem, it’s not a functional issue and it’s expected on EVs. Tesla is great at maximizing regen braking so the friction brakes are rarely used. In rainy climates, rust is normal, it gets removed through usage.
The suspension issue sounds more legit.
The suspension issue sounds more legit.
December 15, 2025 at 11:27 PM
The brake thing seems like an assessment problem, it’s not a functional issue and it’s expected on EVs. Tesla is great at maximizing regen braking so the friction brakes are rarely used. In rainy climates, rust is normal, it gets removed through usage.
The suspension issue sounds more legit.
The suspension issue sounds more legit.
I said minor things, usually delivery fit and finish things like a rattle from the back seat latch or a slightly misaligned trunk lid. They were bad about things like that for a while, but are much better today.
Actual mechanical and electronic systems are very robust and reliable.
Actual mechanical and electronic systems are very robust and reliable.
December 15, 2025 at 11:13 PM
I said minor things, usually delivery fit and finish things like a rattle from the back seat latch or a slightly misaligned trunk lid. They were bad about things like that for a while, but are much better today.
Actual mechanical and electronic systems are very robust and reliable.
Actual mechanical and electronic systems are very robust and reliable.
It has been measured over time. CR has had them increasing in their reliability rankings for several years now.
The 3 and Y have demonstrated above average reliability for years now, and even when the earlier versions had issues they were mostly minor things that service would fix (per CR).
The 3 and Y have demonstrated above average reliability for years now, and even when the earlier versions had issues they were mostly minor things that service would fix (per CR).
December 15, 2025 at 10:24 PM
It has been measured over time. CR has had them increasing in their reliability rankings for several years now.
The 3 and Y have demonstrated above average reliability for years now, and even when the earlier versions had issues they were mostly minor things that service would fix (per CR).
The 3 and Y have demonstrated above average reliability for years now, and even when the earlier versions had issues they were mostly minor things that service would fix (per CR).
Not really sure what you’re arguing at this point, that’s what I already said above.
December 15, 2025 at 8:46 PM
Not really sure what you’re arguing at this point, that’s what I already said above.
CR has ratings for the S and X, and they generally have had lower reliability ratings than the 3 and Y. Though this is also a pattern with some other manufacturers.
I’ve studied this subject a fair bit, and I think everything I’ve said is reasonable and supported by data.
I’ve studied this subject a fair bit, and I think everything I’ve said is reasonable and supported by data.
December 15, 2025 at 8:27 PM
CR has ratings for the S and X, and they generally have had lower reliability ratings than the 3 and Y. Though this is also a pattern with some other manufacturers.
I’ve studied this subject a fair bit, and I think everything I’ve said is reasonable and supported by data.
I’ve studied this subject a fair bit, and I think everything I’ve said is reasonable and supported by data.
That seems needlessly rude.
They did introduce the flop CT since then. But all four of their other vehicles have been refreshed since 2020. The S and X changes were more dramatic (despite the looks changing more subtly), but the 3 and Y refreshes are both great. That’s industry consensus.
They did introduce the flop CT since then. But all four of their other vehicles have been refreshed since 2020. The S and X changes were more dramatic (despite the looks changing more subtly), but the 3 and Y refreshes are both great. That’s industry consensus.
December 15, 2025 at 8:22 PM
That seems needlessly rude.
They did introduce the flop CT since then. But all four of their other vehicles have been refreshed since 2020. The S and X changes were more dramatic (despite the looks changing more subtly), but the 3 and Y refreshes are both great. That’s industry consensus.
They did introduce the flop CT since then. But all four of their other vehicles have been refreshed since 2020. The S and X changes were more dramatic (despite the looks changing more subtly), but the 3 and Y refreshes are both great. That’s industry consensus.
1.808M to 1.789M is not a huge drop, it is relatively flat.
This year will surely be lower, but again, so far it’s not a “huge drop” YoY.
It’s a huge drop from where they *would* be if he’d not gone totally off the rails, of course. That’s the real shame (and why the board is a joke).
This year will surely be lower, but again, so far it’s not a “huge drop” YoY.
It’s a huge drop from where they *would* be if he’d not gone totally off the rails, of course. That’s the real shame (and why the board is a joke).
December 15, 2025 at 8:17 PM
1.808M to 1.789M is not a huge drop, it is relatively flat.
This year will surely be lower, but again, so far it’s not a “huge drop” YoY.
It’s a huge drop from where they *would* be if he’d not gone totally off the rails, of course. That’s the real shame (and why the board is a joke).
This year will surely be lower, but again, so far it’s not a “huge drop” YoY.
It’s a huge drop from where they *would* be if he’d not gone totally off the rails, of course. That’s the real shame (and why the board is a joke).
They redesigned the S and X in 2021 and build quality + reliability improved a ton with the new generation and each year since then.
The 3 was introduced in 2017-2018 and the Y in 2020, and both have improved continuously, with big well-regarded refreshes in 2024 (3) and 2025 (Y).
The 3 was introduced in 2017-2018 and the Y in 2020, and both have improved continuously, with big well-regarded refreshes in 2024 (3) and 2025 (Y).
December 15, 2025 at 8:13 PM
They redesigned the S and X in 2021 and build quality + reliability improved a ton with the new generation and each year since then.
The 3 was introduced in 2017-2018 and the Y in 2020, and both have improved continuously, with big well-regarded refreshes in 2024 (3) and 2025 (Y).
The 3 was introduced in 2017-2018 and the Y in 2020, and both have improved continuously, with big well-regarded refreshes in 2024 (3) and 2025 (Y).
He blocked me because he hates when people point out his deceptions (he’s really bitter about the time I got a car safety study author to call him out for blatantly misrepresenting the results of the study and refusing to correct it).
I don’t know what you mean about absurdly long cycles…
I don’t know what you mean about absurdly long cycles…
December 15, 2025 at 8:11 PM
He blocked me because he hates when people point out his deceptions (he’s really bitter about the time I got a car safety study author to call him out for blatantly misrepresenting the results of the study and refusing to correct it).
I don’t know what you mean about absurdly long cycles…
I don’t know what you mean about absurdly long cycles…
They make 5 vehicles. And I don’t think the CT reliability after the initial batch is actually as bad as you seem to think.
December 15, 2025 at 8:09 PM
They make 5 vehicles. And I don’t think the CT reliability after the initial batch is actually as bad as you seem to think.
Tesla sales have been relatively flat for a while, there hasn’t been a huge drop (though this quarter will be slow due to all the EV demand that got pulled forward into Q3 by the tax credit expiration). What Musk destroyed was their growth trajectory.
December 15, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Tesla sales have been relatively flat for a while, there hasn’t been a huge drop (though this quarter will be slow due to all the EV demand that got pulled forward into Q3 by the tax credit expiration). What Musk destroyed was their growth trajectory.
Niedermyer is a very dishonest guy, as evidenced here by falsely suggesting I’m a Musk fan (he knows I’m not). He’s just bitter because I’ve exposed his attempts at deception in the past.
Tesla makes great cars - a shame they’re run by a madman who’s lost whatever connection to reality he ever had.
Tesla makes great cars - a shame they’re run by a madman who’s lost whatever connection to reality he ever had.
December 15, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Niedermyer is a very dishonest guy, as evidenced here by falsely suggesting I’m a Musk fan (he knows I’m not). He’s just bitter because I’ve exposed his attempts at deception in the past.
Tesla makes great cars - a shame they’re run by a madman who’s lost whatever connection to reality he ever had.
Tesla makes great cars - a shame they’re run by a madman who’s lost whatever connection to reality he ever had.
I see you’re still as dishonest as ever.
What an evil lie to tell, when you should know full well that I have been one of Musk’s most vocal CRITICS, and actively campaigned to get him fired two years ago.
Seems like you were hoping people would misinterpret the article.
What an evil lie to tell, when you should know full well that I have been one of Musk’s most vocal CRITICS, and actively campaigned to get him fired two years ago.
Seems like you were hoping people would misinterpret the article.
December 15, 2025 at 8:02 PM
I see you’re still as dishonest as ever.
What an evil lie to tell, when you should know full well that I have been one of Musk’s most vocal CRITICS, and actively campaigned to get him fired two years ago.
Seems like you were hoping people would misinterpret the article.
What an evil lie to tell, when you should know full well that I have been one of Musk’s most vocal CRITICS, and actively campaigned to get him fired two years ago.
Seems like you were hoping people would misinterpret the article.