Brian Bartholomew
@bpbartholomew.bsky.social
Power markets, batteries, niche memes. Grid modeling and analysis at Merit Order Energy. Living in NY 🗽
Forecast PJM peak load growth hinges entirely on the credibility of projected large loads, mostly data centers.
Without large load adjustments, PJM's peak summer demand forecast is flat through the end of the decade.
Without large load adjustments, PJM's peak summer demand forecast is flat through the end of the decade.
December 10, 2024 at 10:21 PM
Forecast PJM peak load growth hinges entirely on the credibility of projected large loads, mostly data centers.
Without large load adjustments, PJM's peak summer demand forecast is flat through the end of the decade.
Without large load adjustments, PJM's peak summer demand forecast is flat through the end of the decade.
PJM's data center load growth is concentrated in a handful of zones.
Dominion, AEP, and PPL account for over 80% of large load requests to 2030.
Dominion, AEP, and PPL account for over 80% of large load requests to 2030.
December 10, 2024 at 10:20 PM
PJM's data center load growth is concentrated in a handful of zones.
Dominion, AEP, and PPL account for over 80% of large load requests to 2030.
Dominion, AEP, and PPL account for over 80% of large load requests to 2030.
PJM utilities requested *52GW* of large load additions to 2030, 38GW of which are included in the preliminary 2025 forecast.
17GW of large loads counted for 2030 are new additions since last year.
17GW of large loads counted for 2030 are new additions since last year.
December 10, 2024 at 10:20 PM
PJM utilities requested *52GW* of large load additions to 2030, 38GW of which are included in the preliminary 2025 forecast.
17GW of large loads counted for 2030 are new additions since last year.
17GW of large loads counted for 2030 are new additions since last year.
PJM now projects 110% higher peak load growth through the 2020s--an additional 17GW by 2030 compared to last year's forecast.
2025 preliminary forecast vs 2024:
+ 2.7GW in 2026
+ 7.5GW in 2028
+ 16.6GW in 2030
2025 preliminary forecast vs 2024:
+ 2.7GW in 2026
+ 7.5GW in 2028
+ 16.6GW in 2030
December 10, 2024 at 10:20 PM
PJM now projects 110% higher peak load growth through the 2020s--an additional 17GW by 2030 compared to last year's forecast.
2025 preliminary forecast vs 2024:
+ 2.7GW in 2026
+ 7.5GW in 2028
+ 16.6GW in 2030
2025 preliminary forecast vs 2024:
+ 2.7GW in 2026
+ 7.5GW in 2028
+ 16.6GW in 2030
Boom! PJM now forecasts more than 30GW of summer peak load growth by the end of the decade.
Summer peak demand:
+ 6.7GW by 2026
+ 17.7GW by 2028
+ 31.7GW by 2030
Summer peak demand:
+ 6.7GW by 2026
+ 17.7GW by 2028
+ 31.7GW by 2030
December 10, 2024 at 10:20 PM
Boom! PJM now forecasts more than 30GW of summer peak load growth by the end of the decade.
Summer peak demand:
+ 6.7GW by 2026
+ 17.7GW by 2028
+ 31.7GW by 2030
Summer peak demand:
+ 6.7GW by 2026
+ 17.7GW by 2028
+ 31.7GW by 2030
California batteries are getting paid to charge at negative midday power prices
March 10, 2024 at 5:12 AM
California batteries are getting paid to charge at negative midday power prices
An afternoon of free electricity in Texas, and negative power prices across the west!
March 10, 2024 at 12:18 AM
An afternoon of free electricity in Texas, and negative power prices across the west!
Some great Black Friday deals on California midday power
November 27, 2023 at 12:51 AM
Some great Black Friday deals on California midday power
PJM, ISONE, SPP, ERCOT
November 24, 2023 at 6:37 PM
PJM, ISONE, SPP, ERCOT
A $1bn+ Sunday in the Texas electricity market
August 27, 2023 at 7:44 PM
A $1bn+ Sunday in the Texas electricity market
A $1bn+ Saturday in the Texas electricity market
August 26, 2023 at 5:37 PM
A $1bn+ Saturday in the Texas electricity market
August 25, 2023 at 4:36 PM
ERCOT has issued a call for conservation today and emergency conditions are expected later this evening.
Tomorrow's day-ahead power prices are even higher 👀
Tomorrow's day-ahead power prices are even higher 👀
August 24, 2023 at 6:43 PM
ERCOT has issued a call for conservation today and emergency conditions are expected later this evening.
Tomorrow's day-ahead power prices are even higher 👀
Tomorrow's day-ahead power prices are even higher 👀
More ERCOT fireworks, with $4,000/MWh+ day-ahead prices and potential emergency conditions later today.
themeritorder.substack.com/p/ercot-set-...
themeritorder.substack.com/p/ercot-set-...
August 24, 2023 at 3:30 PM
More ERCOT fireworks, with $4,000/MWh+ day-ahead prices and potential emergency conditions later today.
themeritorder.substack.com/p/ercot-set-...
themeritorder.substack.com/p/ercot-set-...