bnschwartz
@bnschwartz.bsky.social
I try to share some ideas but unfortunately they come with typos.
Only one of these narratives can be true if you assume a ~2.8% GDP growth (and lower unemployment rate) in FY'26 - Thus, the current economic projections are a little hard for me to understand.
January 26, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Only one of these narratives can be true if you assume a ~2.8% GDP growth (and lower unemployment rate) in FY'26 - Thus, the current economic projections are a little hard for me to understand.
Thought this was an interesting graph...from Bloomberg (source Philly Fed). www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-...
January 23, 2026 at 11:59 PM
Thought this was an interesting graph...from Bloomberg (source Philly Fed). www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-...
Has anyone tried to prove this paper wrong (see image or link)? I am just asking b/c I am a little tired of CNBC looking like a parade of kids who think they improved/fixed the world - Every year it only looks more and more like an echo-chamber of clowns. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
January 16, 2026 at 7:57 PM
Has anyone tried to prove this paper wrong (see image or link)? I am just asking b/c I am a little tired of CNBC looking like a parade of kids who think they improved/fixed the world - Every year it only looks more and more like an echo-chamber of clowns. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The consumer/spending activity is holding and people are paying their bills on-time --- I will take it.
January 15, 2026 at 5:55 PM
The consumer/spending activity is holding and people are paying their bills on-time --- I will take it.
An interesting listen - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/h...
Christian Nationalism in Global Perspective
Podcast Episode · Harvard Divinity School · 03/11/2025 · 1h 6m
podcasts.apple.com
January 11, 2026 at 5:44 AM
An interesting listen - podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/h...
NY Fed Labor Market Expectations Report -- Hard to get excited about the consumer (regardless of the potential tax cuts benefits in H1'26), when 1st grade math says, their current financial position is not all rainbows.
January 8, 2026 at 5:33 PM
NY Fed Labor Market Expectations Report -- Hard to get excited about the consumer (regardless of the potential tax cuts benefits in H1'26), when 1st grade math says, their current financial position is not all rainbows.
Brokered Deposit Data - What is interesting to me is how much we are above the historical average (not only in dollars but also in total deposit percentages)...Considering the market is flush with cash (what is happening in the mid-market bank world -- shit CRE hurting ratios?).
January 8, 2026 at 12:52 AM
Brokered Deposit Data - What is interesting to me is how much we are above the historical average (not only in dollars but also in total deposit percentages)...Considering the market is flush with cash (what is happening in the mid-market bank world -- shit CRE hurting ratios?).
A great read from the Dallas Fed... www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
China manufacturing overcapacity boosts output, stagnation fears
Nearly 30 percent of China's industrial firms operate at a loss, up from 20 percent before the pandemic. The question arises: How can this be sustained?
www.dallasfed.org
January 7, 2026 at 10:25 PM
A great read from the Dallas Fed... www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...
Cool graph if you didn't know...
January 5, 2026 at 7:24 PM
Cool graph if you didn't know...
As we think about the "K" economy, I think this graph/data is something that we should think about.
December 26, 2025 at 6:31 AM
As we think about the "K" economy, I think this graph/data is something that we should think about.
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
December 19, 2025 at 5:00 PM
How to undermine the system and the guardrails...
The comments in the "Dallas Fed Energy Survey" are amazing, for example -> "The level of regulation is increasing because there is less human input to rules and regulations." www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
Lingering pessimism, uncertainty further weigh on oil and gas activity
Activity in the oil and gas sector edged lower in fourth quarter 2025, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
www.dallasfed.org
December 18, 2025 at 5:30 AM
The comments in the "Dallas Fed Energy Survey" are amazing, for example -> "The level of regulation is increasing because there is less human input to rules and regulations." www.dallasfed.org/research/sur...
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
December 15, 2025 at 7:03 PM
People are spending and repaying their credit card balances, but some softness can be seen in the current data.
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
December 4, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Data from Expedia -- Something I think that is interesting.
A great listen — podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
The Age-Old Contest Between Land and Sea
Podcast Episode · The Foreign Affairs Interview · 11/20/2025 · 34m
podcasts.apple.com
November 27, 2025 at 2:06 AM
A great listen — podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...
something to think about...
November 20, 2025 at 5:46 PM
something to think about...
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
November 18, 2025 at 4:44 PM
October-25 Master Trust Scorecard
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
November 15, 2025 at 12:21 AM
Someone is holding the bag - Will be interesting to learn who one of these days (funds, consumers, US banks via lending to NDFIs, Japanese banks).
Assuming this is correct, why are you, as a bank executive selling...per S&P - "The median price-to-adjusted tangible book value (TBV) for the banking industry was 131.2% as of Oct. 31, down from 141.9% at Sept. 30, marking the lowest month-end valuation since 128.1% at May 30. "
November 13, 2025 at 6:35 PM
Assuming this is correct, why are you, as a bank executive selling...per S&P - "The median price-to-adjusted tangible book value (TBV) for the banking industry was 131.2% as of Oct. 31, down from 141.9% at Sept. 30, marking the lowest month-end valuation since 128.1% at May 30. "
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 4:29 PM
Thought this was interesting data -- link to the paper was provided by Carl Tannenbaum @northerntrust.bsky.social
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
October 31, 2025 at 11:00 PM
per Bloomberg: Walmart reportedly takes in about 25% of SNAP shoppers' grocery dollars annually, with Kroger and Albertsons at 8% and 6%. -- The graph below is from Barclays Research...You can actually see when SNAP changes were announced.
per KKR - "There are 19k private equity funds in the US as compared to 14k McDonald's restaurants in the US." -- If ~19k PE funds exist, how is it possible for this industry to continue to outperform the market, find that many deals and have losses below IG bond default rates...Question for myself.
October 22, 2025 at 1:09 AM
per KKR - "There are 19k private equity funds in the US as compared to 14k McDonald's restaurants in the US." -- If ~19k PE funds exist, how is it possible for this industry to continue to outperform the market, find that many deals and have losses below IG bond default rates...Question for myself.
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
October 20, 2025 at 2:18 PM
I just think this map is intresting - I wonder if this impacts retirment migration (and local housing market prices)....mainly speakign about the expected/current ACA cuts?
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
October 15, 2025 at 4:00 PM
People are paying their credit card balances, but we are starting to see a little bit of payment rate softness.
I guess they do understand shit…
October 9, 2025 at 9:45 PM
I guess they do understand shit…