P.S. Yes, there *is* a 'steelman' case for the deal (trying to be as empathetic as possible)...it's just countered by a hefty set of downsides.

(Obviously, there are plenty of more right-coded objections to this deal...but since those on the right already tend to be more persuaded, since it's not their team pushing it, thought it worth having out some potential problems from the opposite perspective)

Or, put more bluntly: want to do free breakfast for school children? Rebuild the NHS while keeping it public? Improve our crumbling infrastructure? Build homes for young people? Great! So why make it easier for opponents to gut all that in 2029 by surrendering to foreign revisionists?

Overall then, even if your inclination is towards normative alignment with international law (dubious here) and decolonisation (which this deal isn't), how far are you willing to jeopardise progressive domestic goals to hand UK Chagossian citizens' homeland to an imperial power...and pay to do so?

11. Even if you're a staunch believer in international law, the case is tortuous here. It comes down to Chagos having previously been administered from Mauritius, for mere efficiency's sake, while both were UK colonies. So, ironically, the basis for the legal claim is...colonial.

10. The Faragists (again). In the same week that one (admittedly marginal) poll placed Nigel's fanclub first, why would you gift them a MASSIVE stick with which to beat Labour on charges of being unpatriotic / anti-British? Especially after so much work to shed that taint.

9. Russia and China. Ok, you may not relish 'great-power competition' etc. But one is currently conducting ethnic cleansing in Eastern Europe, the other has a >million Uyghurs in concentration camps. So any progressive foreign policy should prize bases from which to counter them.

8. Trump. Worried that America's mad king could prove a menace? The UK has few levers more potent vs the US than Diego Garcia. But give BIOT away and - best-case - the UK becomes an extraneous middle-man. Tragicomic outcome is UK cedes sovereignty, then Mauritius sells DG to the US.

7. £18bn (yet again). You may hope that it doesn't cut through. But Reform, the Conservatives, and even the Lib Dems will be trying to make sure it does. The opponents of every single Labour incumbent in 2028-29 will be pointing at the nearest pothole and saying "£18bn would fix that".

6. £18bn (again). That number is politically deadly. Yes, the public finances Labour inherited were in a parlous state. But if this deal goes through, that line's done for. Every single thing that's cut / wasn't funded will be hit with "but you found £18bn for Mauritius".