This isn't by any means exhaustive. Lots more detail in the full IFS response and analysis here, including presentations from my lovely colleagues:
ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
Autumn Budget 2025: IFS analysis | Institute for Fiscal Studies
At this online webinar IFS researchers present their initial response to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget.
ifs.org.uk
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
This isn't by any means exhaustive. Lots more detail in the full IFS response and analysis here, including presentations from my lovely colleagues:
ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
ifs.org.uk/events/autum...
11) Pretending that an increase in National Insurance is not a breach of a manifesto promise not to increase National Insurance
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
11) Pretending that an increase in National Insurance is not a breach of a manifesto promise not to increase National Insurance
8) Half-baked property tax changes
9) Lack of ambition on tax reform more generally (if not now, when?) - especially on taxation of saving and investment
10) The insane amount of pre-Budget briefing and speculation
9) Lack of ambition on tax reform more generally (if not now, when?) - especially on taxation of saving and investment
10) The insane amount of pre-Budget briefing and speculation
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
8) Half-baked property tax changes
9) Lack of ambition on tax reform more generally (if not now, when?) - especially on taxation of saving and investment
10) The insane amount of pre-Budget briefing and speculation
9) Lack of ambition on tax reform more generally (if not now, when?) - especially on taxation of saving and investment
10) The insane amount of pre-Budget briefing and speculation
I'm old enough to remember when this government was vociferously complaining about the unrealistically low spending plans it inherited from the last government... could argue they're now using the same playbook... Spending Review 2027 will be tough.
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
I'm old enough to remember when this government was vociferously complaining about the unrealistically low spending plans it inherited from the last government... could argue they're now using the same playbook... Spending Review 2027 will be tough.
A few areas where I'm more critical:
7) The spend now, pay later approach: extra spending is heavily front-loaded, tax rises are heavily back-loaded. The consolidation plan relies heavily on the government doing difficult things in an election year. I have some doubts.
7) The spend now, pay later approach: extra spending is heavily front-loaded, tax rises are heavily back-loaded. The consolidation plan relies heavily on the government doing difficult things in an election year. I have some doubts.
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
A few areas where I'm more critical:
7) The spend now, pay later approach: extra spending is heavily front-loaded, tax rises are heavily back-loaded. The consolidation plan relies heavily on the government doing difficult things in an election year. I have some doubts.
7) The spend now, pay later approach: extra spending is heavily front-loaded, tax rises are heavily back-loaded. The consolidation plan relies heavily on the government doing difficult things in an election year. I have some doubts.
4) More transparency on special educational needs pressures (i.e. finally recognising they exist)
5) Maintaining capital investment plans even when money is tight
6) If the aim is to reduce child poverty, scrapping the two-child limit is a cost-efficient means of doing so
5) Maintaining capital investment plans even when money is tight
6) If the aim is to reduce child poverty, scrapping the two-child limit is a cost-efficient means of doing so
November 27, 2025 at 12:15 PM
4) More transparency on special educational needs pressures (i.e. finally recognising they exist)
5) Maintaining capital investment plans even when money is tight
6) If the aim is to reduce child poverty, scrapping the two-child limit is a cost-efficient means of doing so
5) Maintaining capital investment plans even when money is tight
6) If the aim is to reduce child poverty, scrapping the two-child limit is a cost-efficient means of doing so
My concern about this is that the OBR's spring forecast for fiscal aggregates will be available for all to see. Anyone can read off the spreadsheet. If government is off track by a sizeable margin, it's very likely to trigger policy speculation and/or demands for a response.
November 26, 2025 at 1:41 PM
My concern about this is that the OBR's spring forecast for fiscal aggregates will be available for all to see. Anyone can read off the spreadsheet. If government is off track by a sizeable margin, it's very likely to trigger policy speculation and/or demands for a response.
This means a much smaller hit to the borrowing outlook than generally expected (including by us). Before accounting for the U-turns on welfare, she'd have been on track to meet her fiscal rules! Does make me wonder if/why manifesto-busting tax rises were ever under consideration.
November 26, 2025 at 12:40 PM
This means a much smaller hit to the borrowing outlook than generally expected (including by us). Before accounting for the U-turns on welfare, she'd have been on track to meet her fiscal rules! Does make me wonder if/why manifesto-busting tax rises were ever under consideration.
Maybe the IFS are the horrible sibling who dobs her in with her parents, painstakingly demonstrating that she has, in fact, taken the equivalent of a full bottle of vodka, and that her promises to pay it back through 2030-31 pocket money don't amount to much
November 21, 2025 at 2:20 PM
Maybe the IFS are the horrible sibling who dobs her in with her parents, painstakingly demonstrating that she has, in fact, taken the equivalent of a full bottle of vodka, and that her promises to pay it back through 2030-31 pocket money don't amount to much
Read the full piece (with @maxwarner.bsky.social and @beeboileau.bsky.social) here:
ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
November 19, 2025 at 10:08 AM
Read the full piece (with @maxwarner.bsky.social and @beeboileau.bsky.social) here:
ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
ifs.org.uk/articles/cha...
It's less about people, I guess, and more about the framework/processes/norms/equilibrium
November 14, 2025 at 4:08 PM
It's less about people, I guess, and more about the framework/processes/norms/equilibrium
