We document rapidly rising premiums & a doubling of the pass-through from disaster risk into premiums. Using variation in correlated wildfire and hurricane exposure, we show that the increase in the risk-to-premium gradient was accelerated by a repricing of catastrophic risk in global capital market

We're most excited to have our data out in the world to help inform policymakers and other researchers!

Some of the biggest reinsurers and investors are starting to reprice catastrophic wildfire and hurricane risk. In the highest risk areas with the fastest premium increases, we estimate that rising premiums have slowed home price growth by more than 10%.

Inflation-adjusted premiums have increased by over 25% since 2020, driven by rising property costs but also rapid increases in zipcodes with the highest disaster risk.

The main findings:
We estimate annual homeowners insurance premiums from 2014-2024 measured from over 70 million mortgage escrow payments. You can download our county-level and state-level data here:

benkeys.github.io/insurance_da...

The New York Times has a piece covering some of our new findings with great data visualizations and reporting that add more context to what we're seeing in the homeowners insurance market:

www.nytimes.com/interactive/...